Nasrallah shouldn't start celebrating too soon.

[ForceRecon79]

If I were Nasrallah I wouldn't be cracking open the Whiskey just yet.

First off, Hezbollah pretty much got smacked around on the battlefield. They lost some 500 fighters, including at least a few senior level military commanders.

Second, Nasrallah was almost assassinated twice, and the guy can barely go outside without fear of getting an IAF missile up his butt.

Third, I doubt Israel will make the same mistakes they made in the Lebanon war twice. If I were Nasrallah I would be thankful I was still in one piece and maybe take a little vacation.

[Bonaparte]

Though I totally agree with the three points that you've raised, but in my opinion Hizbullah is much more advantaged when it comes to the quality of the fighters.

As I saw on TV, most, not to say all, the Israeli soldiers are in their early 20s! No military experience against Hizbullah at all... While a single Hizbullah fighter has been facing the ISF since his childhood!

Besides, a soldier's main goal-in any classic army- is to save himself, while Hizbullah's fighters goal is to die for his cause...

[Bheeshma]

THe israelis in 1948 had very little experience when thry faced 6 (supposedly professional) armies . IDF will be fine. Hezz's days are numbered.

[Bonaparte]

THe israelis in 1948 had very little experience when thry faced 6 (supposedly professional) armies . IDF will be fine. Hezz's days are numbered.



In 1948, you had Ben Guiron leading the battle, you had elite soldiers such as Ariel Sharon heading the 101 unit. And the 6 professional armies where fighting the newly born state so that the Arabic regime gather the sympathy of the people or else their regimes would have fallen. Besides, the Jordanian king was working on adding Palestine to his kingdom...

Nowadays, you have a united militia believing that the removal of Israel is not only a cause, but a divine will!

Anyways, good luck!

[farmall]

"As I saw on TV, most, not to say all, the Israeli soldiers are in their early 20s! No military experience against Hizbullah at all... While a single Hizbullah fighter has been facing the ISF since his childhood!"

This is where a hot war would help Israel. The US has had continuing large-scale military operations since Desert Shield in 1990, and has the most combat-experienced conventional force in the world.

Since Israel will never have peace and there is no point in pursuing that distraction, embracing perpetual low-level war is what to do. Rotate units intact to get them combat experience and build combat confidence.

With any luck Lebanon may collapse into civil war and offer opportunities for engagement. Lebanon is now "Hezbollistan" so it may as well be destroyed.

[Bonaparte]

This is where a hot war would help Israel. The US has had continuing large-scale military operations since Desert Shield in 1990, and has the most combat-experienced conventional force in the world.

Since Israel will never have peace and there is no point in pursuing that distraction, embracing perpetual low-level war is what to do. Rotate units intact to get them combat experience and build combat confidence.

With any luck Lebanon may collapse into civil war and offer opportunities for engagement. Lebanon is now "Hezbollistan" so it may as well be destroyed.



Trade "national security" with "build combat confidence"?

[farmall]

"Trade "national security" with "build combat confidence"?

Israel has no "national security" that isn't bought by the IDF and their "combat confidence'. The more troops that get combat experience the better the force will be, because training isn't enough.

In intact Hezbollistan is not important to Israeli security, while a destroyed Hezbollistan can be useful.

A wrecked Hezbollistan with no government offers Israel much better political "fig leaves" for attacking enemy groups, so it is in Israels interest for those living there to blow each other away. The more it ends up looking like post-Pol Pot Cambodia the better. Enough with the stupid dreams of peace. Let's realize they are a foolish distraction and embrace situations where our enemies kill each other for as long as possible. "Lebanon" can never be anything but an enemy sanctuary, so burn the barn to get the rats.

Things are looking better and better:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/18/world/middleeast/18lebanon.html?hp

"“The Sunni-Shiite conflict is in the open now, it’s been triggered and operationalized,” said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “This is a deep wound, and it’s going to have serious repercussions if it’s not immediately and seriously addressed.”

[islamfac]

"Trade "national security" with "build combat confidence"?

Israel has no "national security" that isn't bought by the IDF and their "combat confidence'. The more troops that get combat experience the better the force will be, because training isn't enough.



Dont forget US support and funding.

I dont think that the Iraqi Shia - Sunni conflict with each other will change things for Israel. If anything I think it makes it worse.

Instead of focusing on ways to bring an end to the conflict with israel they are focusing on war. If the Shia-sunni conflicts ends they will be geared up and prepared to continue war with somebody.. and they will turn focus back on Israel.

Example of this is Afghanistan's civil war. Once they eliminated their internal opposition they focused on a common enemy.. disbelievers.

[Steven]

If I were Nasrallah I wouldn't be cracking open the Whiskey just yet.

First off, Hezbollah pretty much got smacked around on the battlefield. They lost some 500 fighters, including at least a few senior level military commanders.

Second, Nasrallah was almost assassinated twice, and the guy can barely go outside without fear of getting an IAF missile up his butt.

Third, I doubt Israel will make the same mistakes they made in the Lebanon war twice. If I were Nasrallah I would be thankful I was still in one piece and maybe take a little vacation.

Israel needs to worry less about civilian casualties and worry more about Israel. If you shelter terrorists, you might just pay the price.

[farmall]

"Instead of focusing on ways to bring an end to the conflict with israel they are focusing on war. If the Shia-sunni conflicts ends they will be geared up and prepared to continue war with somebody"

The point is that continued Shia-Sunni conflict refreshes the useful and fundamental hatred between them. War between them does not proceed to resolution because they cannot wipe each other out. What they can do is wreck Lebanon so it doesn't pose a serious threat. :clap:

The only way Muslims want peace with Israel is by destroying it, so all efforts toward "peace" that aren't deliberate lies should be abandoned. Absolute ruthlessness, cynicism, and cold realpolitik are called for. Enemy lives (essentially, everyone that surrounds Israel) do not.