Nasrallah: 'the war has started'

[NewsGuy]

Hoping for the Lebanese to clean their own house of Iranian and Syrian terror.

Yeah, I know it's doubtful, but why not be optimistic:


BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- Gunfire broke out in downtown Beirut Thursday after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said recent government actions amount to "a declaration of open war."

"Just in the past few minutes ... things have gotten a lot worse," CNN's Cal Perry reported from downtown Beirut. The sound of automatic gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades could be heard throughout his live reports.

Perry, who took cover with the Lebanese army, said government forces have not yet reacted to the violence.

The gunbattles were taking place between Shiite and Sunni neighborhoods in the capital, near CNN's Beirut Bureau. Watch Perry call in through gunfire »

The Lebanese army, which is charged with trying to keep peace in the capital, is in a precarious position, Perry explained.

"When you're talking about this much gunfire, when you're talking about RPG fire, it's absolutely ludicrous to think that the army will put themselves between these two factions," he said.

Video of the scene showed tanks and armored personnel carriers moving through empty streets past shuttered stores.

The violence erupted shortly after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the government's attempts to halt Hezbollah's use of a telecommunications system amounts to "a declaration of open war."

"We believe the war has started and we believe that we have the right to defend ourselves," Nasrallah said in a televised speech. "We will cut the hand that will reach out to the weapons of the resistance no matter if it comes from the inside or the outside."

At the same time, Nasrallah called for dialogue, saying, "We are ready, whoever wants a compromise, we are here and ready."

"Those who have taken decisions leading to war, let them withdraw their decisions and there would be no war," he said.

"Am I declaring war? Not at all. I am declaring oppression and self-defense."

Lebanese Communications Minister Marwan Hamadi said Nasrallah's speech "is a direct threat of assassinating us."

"We are not scared of the threat," Hamadi told al-Arabiya. " 'Cutting off the hands' is a direct threat of assassination.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/05/08/lebanon.hezbollah/index.html

[NewsGuy]

"When you're talking about this much gunfire, when you're talking about RPG fire, it's absolutely ludicrous to think that the army will put themselves between these two factions," he said.
Sorry, I just had to laugh at this sentence.

There's too much gunfire going on in the capital, so it would be "absolutely ludicrous" to think that the army will intervene.

Wouldn't want the army to get involved with scary stuff like gunfire...

:D

[farmall]

"Wouldn't want the army to get involved with scary stuff like gunfire..."

It would be stupid to get between them.

The way to solve these problems is not to prolong things by interfering with violence, but to allow violent change to sweep away which ever side is judged unfit in trial by fire.

[NewsGuy]

"Wouldn't want the army to get involved with scary stuff like gunfire..."

It would be stupid to get between them.

The way to solve these problems is not to prolong things by interfering with violence, but to allow violent change to sweep away which ever side is judged unfit in trial by fire.

Maybe in an example of 2 rival gangs it makes sense to stay out of it. But when the only international airport of a country is shut down by a terrorist group, which is also firing missiles in the streets of the capital in an efort to topple the government, it just might be a worthy occasion for the country's military to take a break from eating shish kabobs and napping.

[farmall]

"Maybe in an example of 2 rival gangs it makes sense to stay out of it. But when the only international airport of a country is shut down by a terrorist group, which is also firing missiles in the streets of the capital in an efort to topple the government, it just might be a worthy occasion for the country's military to take a break from eating shish kabobs and napping."

That's conventional reasoning. When one accepts that a united Lebanon is a silly idea, there is no reason to fight for it. There ARE reasons to seek power, but that is different.

The Lebanese Army may prefer a course of action advantageous to its members and leaders instead. If Lebanon is broken into segregated areas, fine. These trivial little pseudo-countries may as well collapse and re-form around natural lines of division. The weaker, the better. ;)

[Mediocrates]

But it's not two rival gangs. It's many many rival factions, splinter groups and local criminals all fighting each other. The Hamas isn't fighting just Fatah, they're fighting everyone. And in the West Bank Fatah is fighting everyone. You assume a stable scenario is either one group wins or they make an accommodation. But even if that where true, the bell is rung, you can't unring it. There are weapons everywhere and people who want to use them. Every day there's a new group who pops up and if they kill Israelis they'll kill each other.

[Kenneth]

I thought nation states like their neighbours to be stable, and not in a state of chaos. Isn't that one of the reasons or the only reason the FSU went in to Afghanistan?

[Parsi]

Both Nasrallah and M. Sadr have now been singled out in the region as important targets. The Islamic regime of Iran are going to have a hard time over the next three months. There's pressure from all directions as well as from within the country.

Israel has played it very wisely so far and yes, I think there is room for optimism. This game cannot go on forever.

[NewsGuy]

Looks like things are getting worse.

Hizbullah has conquered the Sunni Muslims neighborhoods of Beirut, shut down the state-run and independent media outlets, and is surrounding the houses of Hariri and Jumblatt, two anti-Syrian leaders.

The Lebanese army (if you can call it that) is starting to deploy in Beirut, but is to cowardly to take real action against the invaders.

[NewsGuy]

When one accepts that a united Lebanon is a silly idea, there is no reason to fight for it.
[...]
The Lebanese Army may prefer a course of action advantageous to its members and leaders instead. If Lebanon is broken into segregated areas, fine. These trivial little pseudo-countries may as well collapse and re-form around natural lines of division. The weaker, the better. ;)
That's an interesting issue, whether it's better for the region to have an Iranian-Syrian controlled canton system and Christian-controlled areas (which would be a natural ally for Israel and the U.S.).

But the trouble is that Hizbullah is not really seeking independence in the South. Rather, it's in the midst of toppling the Lebanese government and taking over the entire country, starting with the capital.

I'm not sure that Israel will be able to tolerate an Iranian province at its Northern border. Unless things calm down very soon in Lebanon, we may be looking at a third Lebanon war unfolding right before our eyes.

[Bonaparte]

The Lebanese army (if you can call it that) is starting to deploy in Beirut, but is to cowardly to take real action against the invaders.


Regarding the "cowardly" part, as you know, the LA isn't heavily armed due to Israel's security. The "cowardly" part couldn't describe the LA's attitude during the Bared camp war against Fateh el Islam paramilitary Syrian thugs. The Lebanese soldiers were fighting a heavily trained militia with light weapons!

The thing is, the Lebanese society is a multicultural one: Sunnis, Shias, Durzes, Christian Maronites, Christian Orthodox, Christian Catholics, etc. The moment the LA decides to interfere against Hizbullah, the army will be devided and fall, as was the case in 1983 and 1984. Now that the LA isn't interfering, we're hearing news about the anti-syrian high-ranked officers leaving the army in order to face Hizbullah.

[NewsGuy]

Regarding the "cowardly" part, as you know, the LA isn't heavily armed due to Israel's security. The "cowardly" part couldn't describe the LA's attitude during the Bared camp war against Fateh el Islam paramilitary Syrian thugs. The Lebanese soldiers were fighting a heavily trained militia with light weapons!
No, Israel has nothing to do with the arming of the Lebanese army. The Lebanese army has no restrictions on it whatsoever.

The Palestinian terrorists in Lebanon are just an example of the Lebanese army's weakness, trying to avoid civilian casualties which might cause another civil war.

In the end, though, the only solution to foreign interference in Lebanon whether from Iranian and Syrian backed Palestinian terrorists or Hezbollah, will be from the Lebanese people marching on the terrorists directly. It's very doubtful that Siniora can do the job. Already he surrendered to Hezbollah again.

If it were not for sectarian problems, most likely a coalition between Jumblatt and Hariri, Jr. could lead the country to victory over Iran/Syria/Hezbollah.

The thing is, the Lebanese society is a multicultural one: Sunnis, Shias, Durzes, Christian Maronites, Christian Orthodox, Christian Catholics, etc. The moment the LA decides to interfere against Hizbullah, the army will be devided and fall, as was the case in 1983 and 1984. Now that the LA isn't interfering, we're hearing news about the anti-syrian high-ranked officers leaving the army in order to face Hizbullah.
Yes, that's true. The Lebanese army is totally infiltrated by Iranian and Syrian agents. (Reminds me of the Iraqi army that collapses every time it fights al Qaeda, because most of its troops are actually al Qaeda members). That's why Nasrallah is so happy to allow for the LA to take over - It's Hezbollah in a different uniform.

In the end, though, the Lebanese government is simply too weak to overcome Iran and Syria. It is not even really in control of the country. Nasrallah decides when there will be war, and who controls every part of the country, not Siniora. So, the Lebanese people will either surrender to Hezbollah or start a civil war.

If the Lebanese were really smart, they'd call for help from the U.S. and Europe (maybe even from Israel), and disarm Hezbollah with force.

[Bonaparte]

No, Israel has nothing to do with the arming of the Lebanese army. The Lebanese army has no restrictions on it whatsoever.

The Palestinian terrorists in Lebanon are just an example of the Lebanese army's weakness, trying to avoid civilian casualties which might cause another civil war.

In the end, though, the only solution to foreign interference in Lebanon whether from Iranian and Syrian backed Palestinian terrorists or Hezbollah, will be from the Lebanese people marching on the terrorists directly. It's very doubtful that Siniora can do the job. Already he surrendered to Hezbollah again.

If it were not for sectarian problems, most likely a coalition between Jumblatt and Hariri, Jr. could lead the country to victory over Iran/Syria/Hezbollah.


In 1984, the Shias withdrawed from the army, taking with them thousands of missiles which were launched on Israel later on.

There is a veto against not only the LA, but all the Arab armies, including KSA's. During the Bared camp war, the UAE sent Gazelle french helicopters to the LA, but France refused to supply Lebanon with the missiles that go with these helicopters.





Yes, that's true. The Lebanese army is totally infiltrated by Iranian and Syrian agents. (Reminds me of the Iraqi army that collapses every time it fights al Qaeda, because most of its troops are actually al Qaeda members). That's why Nasrallah is so happy to allow for the LA to take over - It's Hezbollah in a different uniform.

In the end, though, the Lebanese government is simply too weak to overcome Iran and Syria. It is not even really in control of the country. Nasrallah decides when there will be war, and who controls every part of the country, not Siniora. So, the Lebanese people will either surrender to Hezbollah or start a civil war.

If the Lebanese were really smart, they'd call for help from the U.S. and Europe (maybe even from Israel), and disarm Hezbollah with force.



Surrendering to Hizbollah is out of question, it's not possible for numerous reasons. The last day, Hizbollah thugs tried occupying the Shoueifat Durze city; they were fought and kicked out. The "Eastern Areas" (referring to the Christian regions that were under the protection of the LF during the civil war) didn't witness any attack whatsoever.

The solution for this crisis will be a political one. Asking for help from the U.S. or Israel against 35% of the Lebanese total population isn't a very wise decision, politically and strategically speaking.

[NewsGuy]

In 1984, the Shias withdrawed from the army, taking with them thousands of missiles which were launched on Israel later on.

There is a veto against not only the LA, but all the Arab armies, including KSA's. During the Bared camp war, the UAE sent Gazelle french helicopters to the LA, but France refused to supply Lebanon with the missiles that go with these helicopters.
There is no embargo against Arab armies. On the contrary, there is a huge amount of weapons being sold to Arab armies every day, including Syria, KSA, etc.

Surrendering to Hizbollah is out of question, it's not possible for numerous reasons. The last day, Hizbollah thugs tried occupying the Shoueifat Durze city; they were fought and kicked out. The "Eastern Areas" (referring to the Christian regions that were under the protection of the LF during the civil war) didn't witness any attack whatsoever.
But actually, Siniora did surrender in that they re-hired the Hezbollah Beirut airport security chief, and will now allow Hezbollah's terrorist communications network to remain. Those were the 2 elements that were in dispute.

When an armed group defies the government and gets its way, that's surrender.

The solution for this crisis will be a political one. Asking for help from the U.S. or Israel against 35% of the Lebanese total population isn't a very wise decision, politically and strategically speaking.
It may be so, because that 35% of the Lebanese population control the other 65%. The fact that Hezbollah has kept the country in a perpetual state of war and prevented even a president from being elected, shows that the minority does control the majority. It gets back to the Lebanese being too afraid to let the majority rule and to stop their needless state of war with Israel -- and with themselves.

[j_y]

Maybe in an example of 2 rival gangs it makes sense to stay out of it. But when the only international airport of a country is shut down by a terrorist group, which is also firing missiles in the streets of the capital in an efort to topple the government, it just might be a worthy occasion for the country's military to take a break from eating shish kabobs and napping.

that's an asumption, no missiles were fired on the streets, what they use to eat is calles shish kabab not kabob and the word terrorist depends on what side you are on.
Both Nasrallah and M. Sadr have now been singled out in the region as important targets. The Islamic regime of Iran are going to have a hard time over the next three months. There's pressure from all directions as well as from within the country.
I seriously doubt that iran controls hizbollah the way you seem to suggest, after all hizbollah has been fighting israel long before ahmadinijad and long before they even got rockets
It may be so, because that 35% of the Lebanese population control the other 65%. The fact that Hezbollah has kept the country in a perpetual state of war and prevented even a president from being elected, shows that the minority does control the majority
according to who hizbollah represents 35%? they got more than 40% of the parlement seats and they were denied 40% of the ministers, they won more than 60% of university elections.and statistics are on their side

[Yala]

I seriously doubt that iran controls hizbollah the way you seem to suggest, after all hizbollah has been fighting israel long before ahmadinijad and long before they even got rockets

Wasn't and isn't Hezbollah an Iranian organization? They have Hezbollah there and it started out in Iran. The connection was always there.

according to who hizbollah represents 35%? they got more than 40% of the parlement seats and they were denied 40% of the ministers, they won more than 60% of university elections.and statistics are on their side

I agree. They will rule Lebanon in the upcoming decade. It is the will of the majority.

[NewsGuy]

that's an asumption, no missiles were fired on the streets, what they use to eat is calles shish kabab not kabob and the word terrorist depends on what side you are on.
No, this is not an assumption. The Hezbollah terrorists did indeed fire RPGs on the streets of Lebanon, and murdered about 60 people so far (that we know about anyway).

Here's a Lebanese account of what Hezbollah did:

Journalists cannot gain access to the myriad areas of Beirut in which fighting is taking place. Al-Manar television claimed earlier today that Hamra is peaceful and calm, and yet opposition militiamen are positioned on my street corner regularly firing their weapons. They fired off an RPG a few hours ago. Those who try to walk out on the streets are prevented from doing so.
http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2008/05/hezbollah_calls.php


BTW - speaking of shish kebob, one of the favorite places for Israelis to eat in L.A. are Lebanese restaurants. Excellent food. The best Middle Eastern, actually.

[QUOTE]I seriously doubt that iran controls hizbollah the way you seem to suggest, after all hizbollah has been fighting israel long before ahmadinijad and long before they even got rockets
Yes, I've heard various Hezbollah apologists deny that the organization is controlled by Iran. I've even heard claims that Iran does not supply them with weapons or money or training. I'm not sure if this works in the Arab world, but here, we tend to go by the facts. As it is, even the Saudis stated openly today that Iran is behind the attempted overthrow of the Lebanese government. Is he a Zionist collaborator?

according to who hizbollah represents 35%? they got more than 40% of the parlement seats and they were denied 40% of the ministers, they won more than 60% of university elections.and statistics are on their side
Are you saying that Shiites are the majority in Lebanon? I think not. Yet, Hezbollah is in control of Lebanon's fate, shooting other Lebanese citizens as it tries to topple the democratically elected government. Even you would admit that this is overstepping their authority, no?

[Yala]

Are you saying that Shiites are the majority in Lebanon? I think not.

They are absolutely the majority in Lebanon. And they are also the sect with the most guns and the most willing to die for their party.

[j_y]

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/20...llah_calls.php
that's a pro goverment source, last month sources like that claimed that nassrallah was removed from the leadership of hizbollah pff plus last week, no one getting killed is refered to as peaceful
BTW - speaking of shish kebob, one of the favorite places for Israelis to eat in L.A. are Lebanese restaurants. Excellent food. The best Middle Eastern, actually.
well thanks
Yes, I've heard various Hezbollah apologists deny that the organization is controlled by Iran. I've even heard claims that Iran does not supply them with weapons or money or training. I'm not sure if this works in the Arab world, but here, we tend to go by the facts
iran does supply them with weapons and money,Sayyed nassrallah himself stated after the war 2006 that hizbollah will rebuild the south from iranian money, plus not to mention the rockets fired, they have the word iran written all over. what I am saying is that iran does not order and control hizbollah in an iron grasp like the news around says
As it is, even the Saudis stated openly today that Iran is behind the attempted overthrow of the Lebanese government. Is he a Zionist collaborator?
Saudis is the US and israel's greatest ally. and speaking of saudis arabia, since the US claims to be fighting for democracy. you should notice by now that the media sheds light only on what the US wants. everyone talked about saddam and how he was a dictator but no one ever speaks about saudis arabia, a state named after the last name of the royal family "al saud" and that has been ruling for over 100 years and no one speaks of how women are deprived of simple basic rights such as driving, standing on the balcony or getting a fair trial if she commites a felony. anyway my point is yes saudis arabia would stand with the US and israel anytime

Are you saying that Shiites are the majority in Lebanon? I think not. Yet, Hezbollah is in control of Lebanon's fate, shooting other Lebanese citizens as it tries to topple the democratically elected government. Even you would admit that this is overstepping their authority, no?
no I never said that the shiites are the majority, but I said hizbollah has alot of supporters, hizbollah supporters are not just shiites, 60% of the lebanese christians support hizbollah and about 40% of the sunnis and over 90% of the shiites. the focus is always in bringing hizbollah to the front region
about shooting civilains, it's not yet clear among those who died who were civilains and who were not and who did the shooting. the goverment militias were not exactly adorable little lams like the media is talking

[NewsGuy]

They are absolutely the majority in Lebanon. And they are also the sect with the most guns and the most willing to die for their party.
Definitely the most weapons and the most extremists, but I don't think the most people.

An interesting fact about Lebanon is that there's not been an official census taken in more than 50 years, so as not to offend the various ethnic and religious groups.

Most non-Shiite Lebanese say 35%, and most Shiites say 40% on discussion boards.

[j_y]

an official census was never done on anything here. they just leave the article writers the freedom to decide whatever they want, hence the current goverment problem. anyone ever wondered why seniora was afraid from an early election? everyone here knows that seniora got the majority because the election happened a few month after Hariri was killed and because the propaganda that time was "if you don't vote for Hariri's party then you are defending those who killed his father" anyone ever wondered how hizbollah managed to take the country in less than 2 days? and don't tell me they were better armed, israel failed to take lebanon in 33 days and we all know then who has the military advantage. reality is no one likes the goverment. syria entered lebanon with the aproval of the US in 1989 and left 3 month after the US decided it's over.
claims that syria and iran are trying to control lebanon again are just as real as the biological arsenal Saddam had lol his arsenal turned out to be 6 katyusha rockets.
if seniora has all that popular support, then why does condoleeza rice has to call him daily and give him support? and if hizbollah is so much hated how could he stand all that internationnal pressure?

[Bonaparte]

There is no embargo against Arab armies. On the contrary, there is a huge amount of weapons being sold to Arab armies every day, including Syria, KSA, etc.


Syria gets its weapons strictly from Russia, never from the West, especially not from the USA. KSA receives weapons from the US due to their strategic alliance against the Persian empire.


But actually, Siniora did surrender in that they re-hired the Hezbollah Beirut airport security chief, and will now allow Hezbollah's terrorist communications network to remain. Those were the 2 elements that were in dispute.

When an armed group defies the government and gets its way, that's surrender.


Sanioura didn't re-hire the Hezbollah terrorist security chief. That is the main reason why an Arab group will arrive to Lebanon today in order to find a solution.

It may be so, because that 35% of the Lebanese population control the other 65%. The fact that Hezbollah has kept the country in a perpetual state of war and prevented even a president from being elected, shows that the minority does control the majority. It gets back to the Lebanese being too afraid to let the majority rule and to stop their needless state of war with Israel -- and with themselves.


35% if we don't count his allies, especially General Aoun.

[Bonaparte]

I seriously doubt that iran controls hizbollah the way you seem to suggest, after all hizbollah has been fighting israel long before ahmadinijad and long before they even got rockets



Who is Ahmadi Najad? He is no one. Nothing. Khamini'i is everything. They have been fighting Israel before Najad, but not before Khomeini. Review history to know why Hassan Nasrallah decided to withdraw from Amal and where was Hizbollah created.

according to who hizbollah represents 35%? they got more than 40% of the parlement seats and they were denied 40% of the ministers, they won more than 60% of university elections.and statistics are on their side


According to UN statistics. The Shias are 35% of the total population. Hizbollah represents 35% if we assume that all the Lebanese Shias are Hizbollah. The 40% comes with his allies (Aoun has 20 MPs if we exclude Murr, but not Tachnaq). As for the "60% of university elections", that is an urban legend.

[Yala]

Definitely the most weapons and the most extremists, but I don't think the most people.

An interesting fact about Lebanon is that there's not been an official census taken in more than 50 years, so as not to offend the various ethnic and religious groups.

Most non-Shiite Lebanese say 35%, and most Shiites say 40% on discussion boards.

What I meant was they are not the most people, but they are the largest sect and that is all that counts in a sectarian country. In terms of sect population it is something like: Shiite, Christian, Sunni then Druze. Even if we take the non-Shia estimate of 35% Shia, you can imagine what a small portion of the population the rest of the sects are.

[Yala]

and if hizbollah is so much hated how could he stand all that internationnal pressure?

Hezbollah is not hated in Lebanon by most of the people at all. Any Israelis thinking this are delusional. We saw during the war how all Lebanese proclaimed Hezbollah as the "Lebanese Resistence."

At the very least Hezbollah are supported and revered by at least 50% of the population. As Bonaparte stated Hezbollah has a popular and key Christian politician on his side.

We also know if you don't call Israel "the enemy" then you are not a real Lebanese and are a Zionist. We all remember PM Siniora proclaiming that Lebanon will be the last Arab country to make peace with Israel. So in my eyes the Lebanese deserve Hezbollah and I hope they enjoy them. It will become the first ME country since Iran to be ruled by Islamists, but it certainly won't be the last.

[Mediocrates]

Come to think of it how did Russia, Poland, East Germany, China, North Korea, Cambodia, Mozambique, Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, the C.A.R., SWAPO, MPLA, UNITA, Nigeria, the LRA, Zaire, FARC, Haiti and about 25 other countries or organizations replete with savagery and atrocities or just plain old garden variety repression, famine, hate, corruption, negligence, incompetence, greed and paranoia thrive for decades and decades on and on?

Because lots of other people and countries have their own reasons for seeing them either succeed or continue to do whatever it is they were doing along the way to failure. Either way - that's a status quo many people are happy with.

[Bonaparte]

Hezbollah is not hated in Lebanon by most of the people at all. Any Israelis thinking this are delusional. We saw during the war how all Lebanese proclaimed Hezbollah as the "Lebanese Resistence."

At the very least Hezbollah are supported and revered by at least 50% of the population. As Bonaparte stated Hezbollah has a popular and key Christian politician on his side.

We also know if you don't call Israel "the enemy" then you are not a real Lebanese and are a Zionist. We all remember PM Siniora proclaiming that Lebanon will be the last Arab country to make peace with Israel. So in my eyes the Lebanese deserve Hezbollah and I hope they enjoy them. It will become the first ME country since Iran to be ruled by Islamists, but it certainly won't be the last.


Yala, what PM Sanioura said is to avoid a civil war. PM Sanioura said that Lebanon will be the last Arab country to sign peace with Israel, but not the last country to end its war with Israel.

The pro-government's political agenda is:

1- To declare a cease-fire with Israel
2- Positive neutrality regarding the Israeli-Arabic conflict.


After what happened during the last week, Hizbollah lost its "divine holy resistance" adjectif. MP Hariri referred to them as a militia, MP Ahdab reffered to them as the ex-resistance on Al-Arabia, Samir Geagea has never considered them a resistance in the first place, PM Sanioura compared what they have done to Beyrouth to what Sharon did. MP Jumblat referred to their weapons as the "weapons of treason" long time ago.

[Bonaparte]

Come to think of it how did Russia, Poland, East Germany, China, North Korea, Cambodia, Mozambique, Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, the C.A.R., SWAPO, MPLA, UNITA, Nigeria, the LRA, Zaire, FARC, Haiti and about 25 other countries or organizations replete with savagery and atrocities or just plain old garden variety repression, famine, hate, corruption, negligence, incompetence, greed and paranoia thrive for decades and decades on and on?

Because lots of other people and countries have their own reasons for seeing them either succeed or continue to do whatever it is they were doing along the way to failure. Either way - that's a status quo many people are happy with.


The status quo is what was targeted when the government took these 2 famous decisions.

[NewsGuy]

anyone ever wondered how hizbollah managed to take the country in less than 2 days? and don't tell me they were better armed, israel failed to take lebanon in 33 days and we all know then who has the military advantage.
That's an interesting point. Hezbollah and Amal have obviously been plotting for a long time how to overthrow the government militarily. Their soldiers knew exactly where to go and how to take over Beirut and other cities along the coast, which control the country's borders.

But, if we look at this more closely, Hezbollah was only able to position troops in Beirut, not really take control. They did not confront any real army, nor any real resistance. They were received either by their supporters, or by an opposition that quickly surrendered. Notice that Hezbollah did not go into the Druze or Christian strongholds, where they would have received fierce resistance (except in Aoun's districts).

As we see all over the world (including Lebanon), it's one thing to position troops in a country. It's another thing completely to fight an ongoing guerrilla resistance. I don't believe that Hezbollah would be able to control the country, but it might be able to chop up Lebanon into pieces ruled by it and Iran, mainly Southern Lebanon.

However... If Hezbollah became the official government, I'm pretty sure that Israel would return to wipe it out before Iranian nukes could find their way to Israel's Northern Border.

if seniora has all that popular support, then why does condoleeza rice has to call him daily and give him support? and if hizbollah is so much hated how could he stand all that internationnal pressure?
Siniora is a weak leader who does not have what it takes to stand up to Iran and Syria. As I've said previously, what's needed is a coalition between Jumblatt and Hariri.

Yes, in the past, Hezbollah was very popular, as it was seen as defeating Israel's cowardly Ehud Barak and corrupt Olmert. But now that the Lebanese have seen Hezbollah's Iranian weapons turned on their own citizens, I think the perception has changed. It's become obvious that Hezbollah is not a defense against Israel, but an offensive force set to return Lebanon to the bad old days of the 70's. I don't think that most Lebanese want that.

[NewsGuy]

At the very least Hezbollah are supported and revered by at least 50% of the population. As Bonaparte stated Hezbollah has a popular and key Christian politician on his side.
That's true for the moment. It will be interesting to see how much longer the Ayatollahs can convince Aoun's Christians that being Shia Dhimmis is a good idea.

[Yala]

Notice that Hezbollah did not go into the Druze or Christian strongholds, where they would have received fierce resistance (except in Aoun's districts).

I guess you haven't been reading the news for the past fwe days. It has been widely reported that Hezbollah attacked the Druze community in the Chouf and received a beating.

However... If Hezbollah became the official government, I'm pretty sure that Israel would return to wipe it out before Iranian nukes could find their way to Israel's Northern Border.

YEAH RIGHT. If you haven't noticed the Israeli gov't has not protected the Israeli people from anything or anybody these days.


It's become obvious that Hezbollah is not a defense against Israel, but an offensive force set to return Lebanon to the bad old days of the 70's. I don't think that most Lebanese want that.

Yeah but this time instead of fighting, most "normal" or moderate, or whatever you want to call them, Lebanese will leave Lebanon instead of fighting. How many times can one fight in a civil war before giving up and moving to Canada or Australia like the rest of the Lebanese? Can you really blame them?

[Yala]

Yala, what PM Sanioura said is to avoid a civil war.

Well how did that work out for him? As long as Lebanese leaders cater to the lowest common denominators of a society they will get what they deserve. Sinoira may be a Muslim but in my eyes he is nothing more than a dhimmi.

After what happened during the last week, Hizbollah lost its "divine holy resistance" adjectif. MP Hariri referred to them as a militia, MP Ahdab reffered to them as the ex-resistance on Al-Arabia, Samir Geagea has never considered them a resistance in the first place, PM Sanioura compared what they have done to Beyrouth to what Sharon did. MP Jumblat referred to their weapons as the "weapons of treason" long time ago.

So what? Half of these people were allied with Hezbollah in the past and trust me half will be allied with them in the future. Aoun was perhaps the most anti-Hezbollah Lebanese politican out there. When he was exiled in France he referred to them as terrorists. Now he is their fiercest defender.

[NewsGuy]

I guess you haven't been reading the news for the past fwe days.
Yeah, you must be right about that, Yala.

[Bonaparte]

I guess you haven't been reading the news for the past fwe days. It has been widely reported that Hezbollah attacked the Druze community in the Chouf and received a beating.


I second Yala and confirm the news. Hizbollah thugs attacked Chouf, Choeifat to be more precise, where Jumblat's men killed 58 terrorists, while 13 Jumblat fighters died.

Besides, Hizbollah thugs also enterred the 'Tlet Tmenet' village, where they got surrounded by Jumblat fighters' heavy weapons. Jumblat had to interfere personally to stop a massacre against Hizbollah's thugs.


Hizbollah is strong, very strong, but strictly in their regions, where they have tunnels and popular support. The moment they decide to enter a Christian or Durze district, they know they won't get out alive. When the Christian LF was armed, Hizbollah was unknown to the public.

[Bonaparte]

That's true for the moment. It will be interesting to see how much longer the Ayatollahs can convince Aoun's Christians that being Shia Dhimmis is a good idea.



During the 2005 elections, when the leader of the LF-Samir Geagea- was still in prison, Aoun managed to get 70% of the Christian support. In the 2007 Maten elections, he barely got 51% knowing that he had the support of Michel Murr (the most popular figure in Maten) and the Armenian Tachnaq party. Now that Michel Murr and Tachnaq left Aoun's bloc, and that Geagea was released, Aoun lost at least half of his popularity.

[Bonaparte]

Well how did that work out for him? As long as Lebanese leaders cater to the lowest common denominators of a society they will get what they deserve. Sinoira may be a Muslim but in my eyes he is nothing more than a dhimmi.



Don't blame it strictly on the Lebanese. The Christian LF had enough weapons to erase Hizbollah in a couple of days. Back then, US was a main ally of Iran and Syria (prior to the Gulf war). In order to get Syria on the US side during the Gulf war, George Bush the father sold Lebanon and its Christians to Hafez Assad.



So what? Half of these people were allied with Hezbollah in the past and trust me half will be allied with them in the future. Aoun was perhaps the most anti-Hezbollah Lebanese politican out there. When he was exiled in France he referred to them as terrorists. Now he is their fiercest defender.



Aoun is truely an exception. There are numerous theories of why he allied with Hizbollah.

What matters is Hizbollah turned from a divine resistance into an "à la gangster" militia.

[Yala]

In order to get Syria on the US side during the Gulf war, George Bush the father sold Lebanon and its Christians to Hafez Assad.

This is a popular theory among Lebanese Christians, who tend to forget who invited Syria into Lebanon in the first place (Lebanese Christians). I can't say I blame them and that hindsight is 20/20, but it obviously was a huge mistake. Unfortunately for them, Assad, the father, was a pretty smart guy who played all the angles in Lebanon. As you know, at some point during the civil war Syria was allied with every single sect. He only used the Christians to get in, in the role of "protector."

There are numerous theories of why he allied with Hizbollah.

There is only one theory that is logical. He wants power and he will sign a deal with the devil (literally) to get it.

What matters is Hizbollah turned from a divine resistance into an "à la gangster" militia.

And tomorrow Hezbollah will shoot some rockets on Israel and the Arab world, including Lebanese, will be waiting in line to kiss their toes.

[Bonaparte]

This is a popular theory among Lebanese Christians, who tend to forget who invited Syria into Lebanon in the first place (Lebanese Christians). I can't say I blame them and that hindsight is 20/20, but it obviously was a huge mistake. Unfortunately for them, Assad, the father, was a pretty smart guy who played all the angles in Lebanon. As you know, at some point during the civil war Syria was allied with every single sect. He only used the Christians to get in, in the role of "protector."


Not all Christians invited Syria, Bashir Gemayel didn't. Syria was invited when, during president Elias Sarkis's mandate, US was preaching the "sovereignty", "independance", and "liberty" of the Lebanese State.




There is only one theory that is logical. He wants power and he will sign a deal with the devil (literally) to get it.


Some say he received petrodollars. But the fact is, Aoun's followers are all LF haters, with no exception. The moment Aoun stands with the government, therefore with the LF, some LF haters will leave him, others will prefer the LF.


And tomorrow Hezbollah will shoot some rockets on Israel and the Arab world, including Lebanese, will be waiting in line to kiss their toes.


Hezbollah won militarly, but lost politically. I don't currently see Hezbollah waging a war against a fierce ennemy when they are being politically fought from the inside.

In order to retrieve their "divine/holy" status, a big changement should be done in their leadership. (Such as replacing Nasrallah)

Besides, the Lebanese Shebaa farms region is currently occupied, giving Hezbollah an excuse to fight and a reason to exist.

[yoyo]

"Am I declaring war? Not at all. I am declaring oppression and self-defense."

Looks to me that Hizbollah is again trying to find a reason to justify its existance. The Lebaneses have themselve to blame for what is happening to them, they have consistently refused to fight them - now the snake has turn.

The thing is, Lebanon has no reasons to hang on to Hizbollah. Israel left and I'm sure that the Lebaneses, a clever bunch of people, understand that Israel only went there to fight the PLO and Hizbollah the second time around and has better things to do than to invade them.

Hezbollah won militarly, but lost politically.

That's a wild assumption you are making. Noone won and Hizbollah certainly lost more than all. What have they won? More destruction in Lebanon? Did Israel capitualated on any of their demands? Not sure what they demanded tho... The only thing they won is to say "look Israel can't destroy us and they can't stop our missiles" but since Hizbollah has many followers, if one remains alive then they'll always win. On the second point, Israel can say the same. I just feel sorry that Olmert and his incompetent gang risked the life of young Israelis soldiers for nothing!

Besides, the Lebanese Shebaa farms region is currently occupied, giving Hezbollah an excuse to fight and a reason to exist.

The Shebaa Farms are Syrians on the UN maps. If Hizbollah is a Syrian proxy army then it's an excuse, since Syria & Hizbollah denies this then its not an excuse, it's a cope out.

Gaza & Lebanon has shown that any land Israel will withdraw from will be one more territory to attack Israel from, I expect the West Bank, Shebaa Farms and the Golan to be the same.

PS: Happy to have join this forum! Yoram

[Bonaparte]

That's a wild assumption you are making. Noone won and Hizbollah certainly lost more than all. What have they won? More destruction in Lebanon? Did Israel capitualated on any of their demands? Not sure what they demanded tho... The only thing they won is to say "look Israel can't destroy us and they can't stop our missiles" but since Hizbollah has many followers, if one remains alive then they'll always win. On the second point, Israel can say the same. I just feel sorry that Olmert and his incompetent gang risked the life of young Israelis soldiers for nothing!


You misunderstood what I'm talking about. I was referring to the "civil war" that happened a week ago.



The Shebaa Farms are Syrians on the UN maps. If Hizbollah is a Syrian proxy army then it's an excuse, since Syria & Hizbollah denies this then its not an excuse, it's a cope out.



I agree, Syria should present official papers to the UN declaring that the farms are Lebanese. That's a thing they'd never do.

[yoyo]

You misunderstood what I'm talking about. I was referring to the "civil war" that happened a week ago.

Ah ok, apologies - got confused... You'll learn it happens a lot.

I agree, Syria should present official papers to the UN declaring that the farms are Lebanese. That's a thing they'd never do.

Sometimes I think it's a question of perspective. Syria thinks Lebanon is a province that belongs to them :scratch:

[farmall]

"I thought nation states like their neighbours to be stable, and not in a state of chaos. "

Stability in the Middle East means a stable enemy, so anarchy and fratricide should be encouraged. For example, a Lebanese collapse into anarchy would divert enemy resources from attacking Israel. Chaos and implosion in the enemy camp are perfectly acceptable if one has the will to use the opportunities they create.

"Syria thinks Lebanon is a province that belongs to them."

That's the way to play the game. No surprise there.

[Bonaparte]

Stability in the Middle East means a stable enemy, so anarchy and fratricide should be encouraged. For example, a Lebanese collapse into anarchy would divert enemy resources from attacking Israel. Chaos and implosion in the enemy camp are perfectly acceptable if one has the will to use the opportunities they create.


Very intelligent strategy from an Israeli perspective, but it's very dangerous on a long-term. Instead, Israel should and must begin push Arabs to accept its presence through financial and humanitarian aids.

[Bonaparte]

Sometimes I think it's a question of perspective. Syria thinks Lebanon is a province that belongs to them :scratch:



Not necessarily. Syria has occupied lands and a weak neighbour (Lebanon). Instead of getting to fight Israel on their own land and destroying their own country, the Syrian regime prefers fighting Israel through Palestinians/Hezbollah in Lebanon. And that also is an excellent strategy from a Syrian perspective.

[Steven]

that's an asumption, no missiles were fired on the streets, what they use to eat is calles shish kabab not kabob and the word terrorist depends on what side you are on.

I seriously doubt that iran controls hizbollah the way you seem to suggest, after all hizbollah has been fighting israel long before ahmadinijad and long before they even got rockets

according to who hizbollah represents 35%? they got more than 40% of the parlement seats and they were denied 40% of the ministers, they won more than 60% of university elections.and statistics are on their side

Educate yourself, it is a fact that Iran supports and finances Hezbollah.

[Mil]

Posted by Bonoparte:

but it's very dangerous on a long-term. Instead, Israel should and must begin push Arabs to accept its presence through financial and humanitarian aids

? Arabs are idiots.

Last time Israel offered to help Pakistan after the earthquake - it made bigger news in the Arab world then the earthquake itself (Pakistan un-unceremoniously refused citing Arab causes - and this is Pakistan).

By the way - do all people from Lebanon realpolitik with each other?

[Mediocrates]

The war has started?


Good, exterminate Nasrallah, his whole family, all his colleagues, all the people who've met with him in the last 12 months, his bankers and everyone else connected to him. If they want martyrs, go out and kill 10,000 Hezbollah staffers and send their bodies back in black coffins.

[Mil]

That's mean dude.

[farmall]

"Very intelligent strategy from an Israeli perspective, but it's very dangerous on a long-term."

Not really, because the goal should be economic and social implosion of the enemy states so they fail and stay that way over time. Stable conventional enemies are a greater threat than disasters. Famine, war, pestilence, and death are exactly what is required. They can last for decades.

"Instead, Israel should and must begin push Arabs to accept its presence through financial and humanitarian aids."

"Push"??? That's very funny. The enemies of Israel can easily decline to be "pushed".

[Mediocrates]

That's mean dude.

I think we're fighting tribal wars of extermination in the context of 21st century politics. As states collapse and are replaced by non-state actors like Hezbollah, all conflicts become tribal, ethnic, religious, racial. And those are absolutely the most brutal and ruthless of all. Hamas fires 200 rockets into Israel during a 'truce' and if Israel so much as complains it's called 'disproportionate force'.

Well I say tear a page from Shakespeare and let slip the dogs of war. Do you think we'll hear any NEW complaints? It's no mystery when Nasrallah has one of his speeches and rallies. That's a target rich environment. Kill them all. Everyone knows Resolution 1701 is and always was a joke.

BTW if Israel wants to stop smuggling into Gaza via tunnels I highly recommend thermobaric bombs and bunker busters. It's already known that those hand dug tunnels are the graves for hundreds of Palestinians who were crushed in cave ins. What's a few hundred more?

[Steven]

The war has started?


Good, exterminate Nasrallah, his whole family, all his colleagues, all the people who've met with him in the last 12 months, his bankers and everyone else connected to him. If they want martyrs, go out and kill 10,000 Hezbollah staffers and send their bodies back in black coffins.

:clap: :clap: