Turkish Arms and advisors to Lebanon

[bararallu]

If true (http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6039), and this needs to be seriously verified not by the likes of Debka, this would be a serious and probably final break in our relationship with Turkey. It may also signal our long term exit from the US sphere of influence.

The bottom line is if those arms and training come into play in Lebanon, it will augment Iranian interests. If Turkey is joining the Iranian regional agenda, then we need to reformulate our strategies significantly.

[Yala]

If Turkey is joining the Iranian regional agenda, then we need to reformulate our strategies significantly.

I think this has become quite obvious. EU has distanced themselves from Turkey for fear of Turkey entering the EU, Turkey has distanced themselves from the US due to their anger at the US invasion of Iraq, and Turkey has turned against Israel b/c of their Islamist administration. Where else is there to turn? Iran and Syria, of course.

Maybe ironic isn't the right word by the way, but I guess we can say it's funny that the Turks and Iranians have beaten the Arab leaders at their own game. Arab leaders did nothing but vilify Israel day and night and now the only thing the Arab street fear and hate in the Middle East is Israel. All the Iranian and Turkish leaders had to do to gain the love and adoration of the Arab street was to bash Israel and talk is cheap. This has made it very easy for Iran to take over strategic parts all over the ME outside their borders. As long as Hezbollah is seen as being resistance to Israel, the Arab world is blind to an Iranian outpost. Why wouldn't a Turkey ruled by an Islamist want to join in on the fun?

*Update: I just read the article. It sounds like Obama is the one joining hte Iranian agenda. Is all okay between the US and Turkey now that Obama is president? I remember reading how they stressed his middle name Hussein when he was in Turkey. LOL

[Oberon]

Well, you never know if DEBKA's sources are accurate or not; they do have a pretty good track record, though, for such a small outfit, even if some people like to dismiss it out of hand. They've been more accurate than the NYT and certainly the BBC, for instance, so I give this an 8 out 10 shot at being true.

Edited to add: How often does AP and Reuthers throw out reports that are false, conplete with photoshopped pictures, that get blasted over the front pages or run for days on all the MSM outlets, only to have the 'corrections' come out, sometimes months later, that are barely covered with a brief blip later on? DebkaFile is merely smaller.

I don't see where it is in Turkey's interest to sell arms and training to an Iranian militia that will be used against itself in the future, regardless of tensions elsewhere, but then they could just be getting stupid. Who knows, it happens. After Obama's appeasement and kowtowing to terrorist regimes during his tour, they may see it as a good idea to start shifting their alliances elsewhere until the idiot gets tossed out of office.

[Toadstool46]

Definitely a slap in the face delivered from the US to Israel. Ouch.. Obama is going to bring a lot of surprises I think.

[Mediocrates]

What would the US have to approve vis a vis Turkish arms sales to Lebanon?

[Oberon]

What would the US have to approve vis a vis Turkish arms sales to Lebanon?

Turkey's arms manufacturing is under license from U.S., British, and German arms corporations, it's not their own in the sense of selling for export as their own. For instance, they can't sell the F-16's made there without U.S. State Dept. approval and proper registering of themselves as international arms dealers subject to U.S. approval. Just having 'Turkish' versions of weapons producing in foreign built and financed plants doesn't allow them to sell them at will. Israel is under the same type of restrictions, but it also has it's own indigenous arms manufacturers that can sell freely to who ever they want.

They are still a member of NATO as well, if I'm not mistaken, and have to abide by NATO mutual defense rules re arms sales to countries outside of that umbrella.

[Oberon]

Trying to trace down the various manufacturing licenses and whatnot is a long term chore but hopefully this essay will give those unfamiliar with international arms sales and who controls what can get a general idea of what is involved.

To seal arms sales agreements, exporters must often provide importing countries with a share of production, thereby further contributing to global arms proliferation by increasing the number of producers. These production-sharing, or offset, arrangements can include local assembly work, subcontracting agreements, joint weapons development, and technology transfers. In today’s buyers’ market, offsets may exceed 100% of the value of the weapons, and may include greater access to U.S. technology and demands for blanket re-export rights. U.S. firms—though not their employees—have embraced this globalization of arms production. Turkey and South Korea now produce F-16 fighter jets for their own use, and Turkey has so far produced 46 jets for export to Egypt, over the protests of Lockheed-Martin workers. The prevalence of offsets, which send jobs and production overseas, undercuts the argument that arms sales significantly benefit the U.S. economy.

...

The U.S. arms industry complains that the cumbersome U.S. export-licensing process hinders exports to—and joint projects with—European allies. The Clinton administration—eager to be receptive to industry interests—has approved a series of reforms to revamp the export process, announced at the May NATO ministerial. They include exempting certain allies from arms export licensing requirements, allowing a single “program license” to cover an entire major weapons system sale, speeding up the licensing process for NATO members, and loosening restrictions on the resale of U.S. weapons to third parties. The underlying objective? To sell more weapons, more quickly.

http://www.fpif.org/briefs/vol5/v5n16arms.html

The U.S., as the main NATO leader, has veto powers over arms sales by member countries, which includes Turkey.

[bararallu]

thanks for the research Oberon

[Oberon]

Well, I was going to try to list what weapons were built built under Turkish names, but it became obvious that would would take at least weeks, given all the front companies and patent pools, so I opted for the easy route. I myself was kind of awed by the interlocking complexity these arms dealers operate under. Not only the U.S., but also Britain and Germany and Israel itself; Turkey builds a version of the Galil, for instance.

[bararallu]

unfortunately it's getting worse. (http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6045)

Turks on the forum, can you confirm this? I personally am not a fan of Debka, so I would like a confirmation.

[Yala]

Debka is not a reliable source.

[bararallu]

I don't actually go there, but someone posts it on the front page here along with Haaretz. These are the 2 major sources posted.

[Yala]

I figured. Their track record is as good as Seymor Hersh's.

[bararallu]

It's public news now. (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3707314,00.html)Turkey is cozying up to a dictator and the primary de-stabilizer of Israel and Lebanon. This is a huge betrayal, that has implications above and beyond the current pro Islamist govts' internal politics. As difficult as it is to say it, Turkey is moving into the enemy camp.

[Oberon]

Yes, it certainly appears the Obama administration is isolating Israel for not electing a government he personally approves of; how dare Israel hold free elections ...

This should be no surprise; Obama's long time associations with virulent antisemites is public knowledge, after all. He was a member of an virulently antisemitic church for over 20 years, one that nominated Louis Farakan as 'Man Of The Year' no less, and was raising his children in such a church, but politics led him to change his public appearance in order to get elected.

[Anatolia]

It's public news now. (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3707314,00.html)Turkey is cozying up to a dictator and the primary de-stabilizer of Israel and Lebanon. This is a huge betrayal, that has implications above and beyond the current pro Islamist govts' internal politics. As difficult as it is to say it, Turkey is moving into the enemy camp.

Huge betrayal? (http://www.turkishonair.com/news/126/ARTICLE/1221/2007-09-25.html)


Turkish army has repeatedly warned Northern Iraqis not to shelter PKK and US to take action.Patience has a limit,so blame America (Bush administration),Barzani and Talabani, not Turkey.Turkey has an obligation to protect its borders and its citizens,if our NATO "ally" America can't do anything about the PKK and do nothing to prevent terrorist attacks from Northern Iraq then we have to take care of ourselves and our borders.

[bararallu]

Anatolia, US is not Israel. I'm Israeli. I also agree that the US and the Iraqi Kurds need to immediately destroy the PKK on their controlled territory. Every Israeli will agree with that.

Now, do you see it as a benefit to Turkey to align with thug regimes like Syria and Iran? Do you think it is to Turkeys advantage to put advisers and weapons into Lebanon, knowing that at least 1/2 of their military upper echelons are infiltrated by Syrian and Iranian agents, aside from the fact that half of the country is currently aligned with Iran willing and able to attack Israeli (as well as Lebanese non Shia) civilians? That is a serious problem for us.

[Mediocrates]

I fail to see how encouraging failure leads to success. But then again, I think Machiavelli's "The Prince" is a comedy.

[Anatolia]

Anatolia, US is not Israel. I'm Israeli. I also agree that the US and the Iraqi Kurds need to immediately destroy the PKK on their controlled territory. Every Israeli will agree with that.

They don't,that's the problem.

Now, do you see it as a benefit to Turkey to align with thug regimes like Syria and Iran? Do you think it is to Turkeys advantage to put advisers and weapons into Lebanon, knowing that at least 1/2 of their military upper echelons are infiltrated by Syrian and Iranian agents, aside from the fact that half of the country is currently aligned with Iran willing and able to attack Israeli (as well as Lebanese non Shia) civilians? That is a serious problem for us.

I agree with you about Lebanon.And I understand Israel's concerns about Syria but you must also understand our concerns.Turkish-Syrian exercise has nothing to do with Israel,its all about PKK and Northern Iraq (at least from Turkey's perpective).As I said Northern Iraq is the basic source of the terror we face in Turkey.If Barzani&Talabani don't do anything to prevent terrorists from operating cross border attacks on Turkey from Iraq,and if America keep on ignoring our concerns then we have no other option. It's "if you don't cooperate with us in putting a stop to the PKK then we will find others to cooperate with us" issue.

So again,blame Barzani,Talabani and America,they forced us to take such a step.

[Mil]

Ah - common!!!!! There were always Kurdish problems with your Barzanis and Talibanis.... for the past many decades.

[takeo]

If Israel doesn't give in and doesn't make peace it'll be totally isolated in the world. Like Saddam's Iraq, without any real ally and lots of ennemies. And that's very dangerous but also means that Israel's behavior is going to change. Israel has long been unwilling to make any compromises because of unconditional US support and military supremacy. Now that both these are slowly faiding Israel will have to give in to reason.

[takeo]

Ah - common!!!!! There were always Kurdish problems with your Barzanis and Talibanis.... for the past many decades.

And the problems are not over yet. Kurds want their independence, and Iraqi Kurds are independent in everything but name, tehy have an own flag, an own army, own border posts and other Iraqi can't enter their territory. (Talabani didn't speak to Iraq's prime minister for the last 7 months, enough said...). Soon the battle for Kirkuk and Mosul will erupt between Kurds and Arabs. And of course sooner or later they're going to help their Turkish Kurdish (and Iranian Kurdish) brothers. That's only natural. After all why should Iraqi Kurds deserve freedom and independence and Turkish or Iranian Kurds not? The Kurds were allies of the US because they fought Saddam. They can also prove to be allies against Iran and the new shiite regime in Baghdad. Before the US invaded Iraq they should have tought about these things.

[Mediocrates]

Of course there's a dark advantage in it. Give in a bit to the Arab fascist tyrannies. Let them do what they do best and become brutal kingdoms, fascist police states. If anyone thinks the Palestinians of all people are going to be the first and only to leap over that phase and turn straight into Ireland then they are delusional. Worst case, the Palestinians get their nation state and devolve either into anarchic civil war or absolute totalitarianism. Oh the takeos of hte world will blame the Jews for all of that, but it won't matter any more than blaming the Jews for Burma or North Korea. Just another imploding failed state. Does anyone believe that Palestine will be more successful than Lebanon, that Iran won't move Hezbollah into the West Bank to take over? Does anyone believe that Palestine will be more successful than the Syrian police state, the Egyptian monarchy or Sudan, or Yemen?

Of course it won't. It will fail and there's nothing anyone can do about that. They've told the world they'd rather die than evolve. I say give them that chance.

[dayag]

If Israel doesn't give in and doesn't make peace it'll be totally isolated in the world. Like Saddam's Iraq, without any real ally and lots of ennemies. And that's very dangerous but also means that Israel's behavior is going to change. Israel has long been unwilling to make any compromises because of unconditional US support and military supremacy. Now that both these are slowly faiding Israel will have to give in to reason.

:rofl:

You must be living in an alternate reality. Even Saeb Erekat disagrees with you:

Palestinian Authority (PA) senior official and head of its negotiations
department, Saeb Erekat, has said in a detailed interview with an Arabic
newspaper that no Jews should be permitted to stay in a Palestinian state,
that Palestinians have an "absolute right" to the eastern half of Jerusalem
and that, as Israel's negotiating positions have weakened and been
concessionary over the years, the Palestinians should agree to nothing now
and allow Israel to concede still more.

source: http://www.israelforum.com/board/showpost.php?p=305577&postcount=16

Don't assume Israel will have to give in without US support. Not everyone is like the French. If Israel is weakened, then they cannot afford to take risks like giving up the strategic territories. Only a strong Israel can take risks for peace.

More likely Netanyahu will hold fast and wait for a new US president in 2012.

[Yala]

:rofl:

You must be living in an alternate reality.

NS, you're not new to the forum Dayag.