Israel's Strategic Importance

[cerulean]

Looking at the situation cynically, the United States will only support Israel to the extent that doing so supports US strategic interests.

This being the case, what are the benefits for the US in supporting Israel? What role is the US likely to take vis a vis Israel in the coming years? What will happen when Middle East oil reserves are largely exhausted? How do you envision the situation in 50 years?

[NewsGuy]

Originally posted by cerulean
Looking at the situation cynically, the United States will only support Israel to the extent that doing so supports US strategic interests.

This being the case, what are the benefits for the US in supporting Israel? What role is the US likely to take vis a vis Israel in the coming years? What will happen when Middle East oil reserves are largely exhausted? How do you envision the situation in 50 years?

These are very good questions.

The main interests of the US in ther ME is making sure that oil flows undisturbed.

I believe that within the next 5 to 10 years, there will be alternative forms of fuel, like hydrogen cells, to power cars. When that happens, there will no longer be a need for Arab oil, and the interests of the US will change drastically.

At that point, I don't think that the US (or the EU for that matter)will object any more to Israel taking very decisive action against Palestinian terrorism.

There is also another aspect these days, which is that the US recognizes that the Muslim world basically despises the US and has launched a Jihad war against the US. In its war against terrorism, the US needs Israel's intelligence resources.

[McSceptic]

It'd be nice to think that only cynical considerations informed politics - things would be a lot neater.

US support of Israel doesn't make a lot of sense on purely national grounds. Arab oil was important from the 1930s onward, yet the US didn't give active support to Israel really until 1973. It pretty much sat on its hands in 1967.

I think US involvement in Israel is more driven by the US domestic agenda which is pretty fast moving. As Hispanic and South Asian voters push their issues to the top of the agenda Israel may wane in importance.

Re intelligence, Israel and the US's interests may not always overlap. To survive Israel may have to sup with the devil (eg Apartheid South Africa in the past, or Communist China in the present) whereas America can afford a more principled foreign policy.