Israel's trade dependency: reality check

[NewsGuy]

Just a reality check to see, exactly, how dependent is Israel's economy on the Arab-controlled EU:

Here are some figures from the CIA World Factbook on Israel:


Exports: $31.5 billion (f.o.b., 2000)

Exports - commodities: machinery and equipment, software, cut diamonds, agricultural products, chemicals, textiles and apparel

Exports - partners: US 36%, UK 6%, Benelux 5%, Hong Kong 4%, Netherlands 4% (1999)

-------------------

Imports: $35.1 billion (f.o.b., 2000)

Imports - commodities: raw materials, military equipment, investment goods, rough diamonds, fuels, consumer goods

Imports - partners: US 20%, Benelux 11%, Germany 8%, UK 8%, Switzerland 6%, Italy 5% (1999)

-------------------

This means that a relatively small percent of Israel's exports, i.e., customers, are European. On the other hand, Israel is a very good customer of the Europeans.

This would sugest that there would be no problems at all for Israel to do as it pleases, regardless of the EU's position.

[takeo]

http://www.mfa.gov.il/mfa/go.asp?MFAH00ua0

"By Tal Muscal


JERUSALEM (April 20) - Despite the current economic slowdown, trade between Israel and the European Union (EU) has flourished in the past three months, according to figures released by the Central Bureau of Statistics yesterday. Meanwhile, trade with the US and Asia has dropped.

In the first quarter, exports to the EU surged 6 percent in annual terms after decreasing 5% in the latter half of last year. Excluding diamonds, exports to the EU totaled $1.83 billion. At the same time, imports from the EU stagnated, after gaining 5.5% in the second half of last year. The CBS said imports of goods and services originating in the EU (excluding diamonds) amounted to $3.1b. Last year Israel exported some $6.9b. to Europe while importing $11.8b. *Currently, the EU is Israel's largest trading partner accounting for 32% of exports and 41% of imports*. "
Jerusalem post
http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/04/20/Business/Business.24923.html

[takeo]

Loosing the largest trading partner(combined with all arab countries, possibly Turkey and many asian countries) will be painfull, very painfull.

[McSceptic]

World Fact Book is never the most up-to-date publication.

Current figures:

EU - 27.2%

North America - 38.8%

Asia - 18.5%

Hypothetical EU trade sactions would have an asymetric effect on the Israeli economy. I imagine agriculture would be hit badly, but high-tech would not.

It's unlikely to happen anytime soon tho, unless "transfer" becomes policy.

[NewsGuy]

Regradless of any of these data reports, it is clear that Israel spends more money with Europe, than Europe is spending with Israel. This trade imbalance, which is greatly in favor of the Europeans, is the reason why the Europeans would not want to stop trading with Israel.

But even if they would, Israel would survive it easily, and meanwhile go about its business of ridding the world of Palestinian terrorism freely without European blackmail.

I only regret that Israel does not reduce its purchasing from Europe and take its business elsewhere.

[takeo]

because Europe is Israel's biggest import AND export-partner, and it is the only develloped part of the world close to Israel(and in fact the only one together with Turkey still willing to trade with Israel). A European embargo would hurt Israel, no doubt about that.

[McSceptic]

EU GDP is around $1550 billion, Israel around $110 billion. What would be a big deal for Israel would be a flea-bite for the EU.

If anything, the EU (taken as a single economy) is very well insulated from external pressures - most of its trade is with itself (the UK and Denmark are exceptions to this).

Israel by contrast needs to export, its own domestic market is very small and can only absorb so many high-end relational databases or gee-whiz mobile phones.

But it's take a lot before sanctions were imposed.

Israelis don't seem share your antipathy to the EU NewsGuy. Applications for dual-citizenship have shot up, including a doubling of applications for French citizenship.

[takeo]

Not yet, but if Sharon continues the choosen path and start deportations, killing or expulsing Arafat and other radical policy(as favored by the right-wing), I'm sure there will be economic sanctions against Israel.

[watcher]

Who really does all the killing and who tries to defend their right to exist? These "palestinians" living on the soil of Israel try to expel and murder the rightful owner Israel so that on top of having all their surrounding lands they can have Israel as theirs too.

No concerns about the world turning to completely support terrorism... If that happens of course Israel would have nothing to do with the world, but no worries. Nothing is really new, Israel always exists and will continue forever.

[takeo]

actually israel does a lot more than defending its right to exist, which doesn't mean occupying the gaza, Westbank and eastern Jerusalem. If israel would be defending its right to exist, the world would support Israel.

[watcher]

If they're complaining about occupying Gaza, Westbank and eastern Jerusalem by means of mindless slaughter through terrorism... Then they should stop occupying those territories of Israel they allowed them to stay in.

What's so hard to simply drop the name "palestine" that wasn't originally arab in the first place and return home and let Israel live in all the homeland of Israel in peace? Ah almost forgot... It's more than not looking respectful in front of their family, but they must keep the name "palestine" and continue hostilities or risk losing their funds and support from their homelands thus the refugee situation...

[takeo]

palestine was the name of the land since 2000 years, even you will recognise that, most people, including me, will now oofficially refere to it as Israel(for Israel) and as palestine(for westbank, eastern jerusalem and gaza) as a consequence of what happened in 1948. However refering to historical times it should still be called palestine in its totality, as this was the name used untill 1948, even by theodor Herzl.
And Israel should stop the Israeli occupation of Palestine than the war will stop too. simple.

[watcher]

To reside on someone elses land does not make it theirs unless they rightfully acquired the land by the owners which they did not. Plus Israel was not completely removed and the only reason they want Yerushalim is because Yerushalim has always been the focal point of Israel.

Any land in Israel that can possibly be contested is the Gaza strip which remained mostly in the hands of the sea peoples until Rome came along... But even there "palestinians" can't hold claim as part of these sea peoples but that land can still be contested.

All in all though "palestine" is occupying the soil of Israel not the other way around. Israel was there before "palestine", during the time it was renamed "palestine", and now as the Land of Israel is called Israel again.

[McSceptic]

The Kingdom of Israel was in the north. You are thinking of the Kingdom of Judah which was in the south and which had Jerusalem as its capital.

The bulk of Israelites (10 tribes) were in the Kingdom of Israel which had Samaria as its capital.

[watcher]

That was after the kingdom split... Before the kingdom split there was Israel with Yerushalim as its capital.

[NewsGuy]

Originally posted by McSceptic
EU GDP is around $1550 billion, Israel around $110 billion. What would be a big deal for Israel would be a flea-bite for the EU.

Maybe so, but I've never seen the Europeans willingly walk away from a few billion dollars in trade imbalance. Certainly not for values that the Europeans hold as so trivial, like morality or human rights.

Unless there is a gun to their heads, the Europeans would trade with the Devil rather than give up even one single Euro in profits.

[NewsGuy]

Originally posted by takeo
actually israel does a lot more than defending its right to exist, which doesn't mean occupying the gaza, Westbank and eastern Jerusalem. If israel would be defending its right to exist, the world would support Israel.

No, Israel is simply restricting the travel of Palestinian terrorist infiltrators who are streaming in from those Arab-controlled areas. This is not occupation, it is defending Isreael's right to exist.

I'm sorry that you don't see blocking Arab terrorists from entering Israel as self-defense.

[McSceptic]

Re trade sanctions

Very true I'm afraid. We trade with a lot worse people than Israel, and even if there were popular support for sanctions, it'd take a long time for the governments to implement them.

But I imagine the possibility of sanctions must enter the political calculations of Israeli governments, so they will as you say have some impact on Israeli decisions.

[takeo]

"Maybe so, but I've never seen the Europeans willingly walk away from a few billion dollars in trade imbalance. Certainly not for values that the Europeans hold as so trivial, like morality or human rights.
Unless there is a gun to their heads, the Europeans would trade with the Devil rather than give up even one single Euro in profits."

You are wrong, the EU took the initiative to block Serbia's economy.






"No, Israel is simply restricting the travel of Palestinian terrorist infiltrators who are streaming in from those Arab-controlled areas. This is not occupation, it is defending Isreael's right to exist.

I'm sorry that you don't see blocking Arab terrorists from entering Israel as self-defense."

The only borders israel could block are the borders between Israel and palestine for defending Israel against suice-attackers, defending the settlements and roads in occupied territory however is not defending Israel but defending israeli positions in occupied territory, that's quite a difference.




"Re trade sanctions

Very true I'm afraid. We trade with a lot worse people than Israel, and even if there were popular support for sanctions, it'd take a long time for the governments to implement them.

But I imagine the possibility of sanctions must enter the political calculations of Israeli governments, so they will as you say have some impact on Israeli decisions."

Well, i heard France and Spain have come with the idea of sanctions if Israel refuses to pay back the damage to european-paid infrastructure. The european union do trade with people worse than Israel, indeed, yet those areas (for example with Sudan or myanmar) are not so close to the European borders and don't present such a big danger for instability in the region bordering Europe.

[NewsGuy]

"You are wrong, the EU took the initiative to block Serbia's economy."

It was a US initiative, I believe. The Europeans were constantly drawing "red lines" for Milosevic, which he would cross, then they drew another "red line", and so on. Any actual action was initiated by the US. And the EU certainly never took the initiative to stop the genocide that was going on there, nor did they even bother to put sanctions on Yugoslavia, becuase that's where the money was. The Serbian sanctions were just window dressing.

But in any event, the EU does business with every tyrant and corrupt dictator out there, and would do much more, if not for US economic threats against the EU.




"The only borders israel could block are the borders between Israel and palestine for defending Israel against suice-attackers, defending the settlements and roads in occupied territory however is not defending Israel but defending israeli positions in occupied territory, that's quite a difference. "

Maybe different for you, but not for me. To defend the lives of Israeli citizens anywhere is self-defense, by definition. I cannot believe that anyone would think that it would be ok to abandon the Israeli frontier towns to Arab mass murderers, who are shooting missiles into the heart of Israeli population centers.



"Well, i heard France and Spain have come with the idea of sanctions if Israel refuses to pay back the damage to european-paid infrastructure. The european union do trade with people worse than Israel, indeed, yet those areas (for example with Sudan or myanmar) are not so close to the European borders and don't present such a big danger for instability in the region bordering Europe."

No, the terrible countries that the EU happily trades with are not Jewish. This is part of the strategy of European axis of anti-semitism.

But the rest of the EU will still not give up billions in Israeli trade, despite their whining. Ultimately, money is much more important to Europe than politics. It has always been so historically and will not change any time soon.

[takeo]

"It was a US initiative, I believe. The Europeans were constantly drawing "red lines" for Milosevic, which he would cross, then they drew another "red line", and so on. Any actual action was initiated by the US. And the EU certainly never took the initiative to stop the genocide that was going on there, nor did they even bother to put sanctions on Yugoslavia, becuase that's where the money was. The Serbian sanctions were just window dressing.
But in any event, the EU does business with every tyrant and corrupt dictator out there, and would do much more, if not for US economic threats against the EU. "

The EU initiated this embargo and it really hurt serbian economy. by the way amusing to see how you consider one person who dealt "properly" with Islamic terrorists as a war-criminal.





"Maybe different for you, but not for me. To defend the lives of Israeli citizens anywhere is self-defense, by definition. I cannot believe that anyone would think that it would be ok to abandon the Israeli frontier towns to Arab mass murderers, who are shooting missiles into the heart of Israeli population centers. "

Israeli civilians shouldn't go to the occupied territories, it's not the time for tourist activities now. And the people who live in the illegal settlements should go back to Israel to promote their safety and the safety of their children. If Israel wants to protect israel, it should ask international assistance and troops to controll the occupied territories and withdraw from it to concentrate on defending Israel, not occupying neighbouring countries. So far however israel has refused international presence.


"No, the terrible countries that the EU happily trades with are not Jewish. This is part of the strategy of European axis of anti-semitism. "

The EU has always considered Israel as a friend and gave it billions of $ in the past, even after Israel violated the un-resolutions and occupied neighbouring countries and started 2 wars. It was only since netayahu destroyed the Oslo-agreements and even more since sharon denied any international recommendations to bring peace that the relations drastically deteriorated.
israel had every chance since 1949 to proove that it wanted to live in peace with its neighbours, but instead it was greedy, started two wars, occupied neighbouring countries and refused to apply international requirements and resolutions. Instead of blaming everything on anti-semitism or other evil conspiracies you should look in the mirror, so should the leaders of Israel. The US is also to blame, if the US didn't support Israel in everything it did, no matter what, Israel would not have the kind of arrogance we see today. one can't just occupy and bomb other countries and deny a whole population the right to return unpunished. Sooner or later this was going to backfire on israel, it did.
During the 70's there wasn't much resistance in the occupied territories, Israel had every possibility to return those territories peacefully and would have been supported by the whole world to do so, it didn't and refused every US-attempt to include the palestinian territories in a kind of deal similar to the camp david agreements with egypt.

[McSceptic]

If the EU really was anti-semitic, then Israel would have nothing to do with it.

In fact, Israel eagerly pursues everything the Europeans have to offer, even to the point of joining the Eurovision song contest - now that is above and beyond the call of duty (didn't Israel win it one year?).

Israel has preferential trade agreements with the EU, Israeli citizens are taking out dual citizenship with the EU, and in terms of local culture Israel has alot in common with southern Europe.

Israel knows that the US can be a fickle friend - not because they're bad people, just because they are a massive country which tends to look inwards. Israel's destiny is (hopefully) as part of a prosperous, democratic Europe, not an outpost of New York or Miami.

[takeo]

indeed, however for this to happen the policy of Israel has to change radically.

[NewsGuy]

Originally posted by McSceptic
If the EU really was anti-semitic, then Israel would have nothing to do with it.

In fact, Israel eagerly pursues everything the Europeans have to offer, even to the point of joining the Eurovision song contest - now that is above and beyond the call of duty (didn't Israel win it one year?).

Israel has preferential trade agreements with the EU, Israeli citizens are taking out dual citizenship with the EU, and in terms of local culture Israel has alot in common with southern Europe.

Israel knows that the US can be a fickle friend - not because they're bad people, just because they are a massive country which tends to look inwards. Israel's destiny is (hopefully) as part of a prosperous, democratic Europe, not an outpost of New York or Miami.

Israel has endured European anti-Israeli politics for decades. This is obvious at the UN and at the EU, as well as at the local level in France and Belgium.

Yet, you are exactly right about Israel going along with European trade and many cultural aspects. I witnessed first hand the joy in Israel when they won the Eurovision song contest. They were really thrilled.

There was a weird feeling only when Israelis found out that the Arab states tuned into the contest cut their satellite transmission during the Israeli singers turn so that their citizens could not see Israelis as just simple people, not an enemy. So when Israel won, all the Arab satellite companies were forced to end their transmission very early.

Anyway, I've observed that Israelis will take comfort anywhere they can find it, maybe because of their regional isolation.

But also, because Israel wants to prove itself that it is a first-world Western society, like the EU and the US. Whenever there is a level playing field, Israel fairs well in European trade and military intelligence circles (but definitely not in soccer or basketball lately. :o )

And also Israel has many friends in Europe. Not every European is anti-Israel or anti-Semitic. Whenever Europeans look honestly at Israel as an ally or trade partner, they see a good match. And some Europeans just like Israelis and Israelis like them.

The main problems of Israel with Europe are on a governmental level, not an individual or business level.

[takeo]

many Europeans, both ordinary people and governments, are disgusted by the government of Israel and the way it deals with the Palestinians, I don't think Sharon would be very wellcome in Europe and he is seen by most Europeans as what he is, a war-criminal, however Peres is still welcome and Rabin or Barak where welcome too(but as well criticised) as their view is more in accordance to European standards. That doesn't mean that they are against Israel and its citizens, they make a clear distinction between racist and illegal government-policies and the country itself, unlike maybe the Arab countries and the American Jews, who are too emotionally involved in this conflict to make this obvious distinction.
if Israel wants to be a western civilised country, it is well possible but it has to act as one and stop ignoring un-resolutions, torture, bombing neighbouring countries, occupying neighbouring countries, murdering its own president by extremists, etc. By doing so Israel isn't any better than its middle eastern neighbours, and even worse.

[McSceptic]

- By doing so Israel isn't any better than its middle eastern neighbours, and even worse.

Meaning that Israel has to display a higher standard of behaviour because it is a western nation?

Maybe so, I certainly think it's that's what drives a lot of public opinion in Europe - that people like us are behaving in the way the Israelis are.

But when we've been in similar situations we haven't behaved much better (and in Belgium's case at least, even worse).

As for Europe being anti-semitic, that was driven in the past by religion or that fact that Jews were an easily identifiable minority (we also persecuted Catholics, Protestants, Freemasons, Royalists, Republicans - and just about everyone persecuted Roma). Europe now is pretty much a patchwork of different ethnic minorities, most of whom are a whole lot more "alien" than Jewish people. I don't think there is anything like the anti-semitism you ascribe to Europe.

[takeo]

Yes, that's right. But Belgium has last week officially excused for what it did in Congo and the belgian, French and English have left their colonies and the policy of those days is now considered morally unacceptable. Israel has not yet achieved this.

[NewsGuy]

Originally posted by takeo
Yes, that's right. But Belgium has last week officially excused for what it did in Congo and the belgian, French and English have left their colonies and the policy of those days is now considered morally unacceptable. Israel has not yet achieved this.

Whooo... Good thing the Belgians apologized finally last week, otherwise, you'd have to accuse them of being brutal colonists and morally corrupt and hypocritical, right takeo?

And, am I understanding you correctly to think that both Britain and France have no more colonies?

[takeo]

"you'd have to accuse them of being brutal colonists and morally corrupt and hypocritical, right takeo? "



Yes, exactly, once they were brutal colonists and if i lived in that time i would have been one of the many who supported the Algerians in their war of independance against the brutal colonists. (what they did after independance was their business, nor ours)
But not any more.

and france and brittain still have colonies, yet these colonies (the populations living in it) CHOOSE to be part of France or brittain, as is the case in Gibraltar, Guyane, Falklands, etc.

[muslim4israel2]

Sanctions would harm Israel badly, and are a likely possibility. France has too much business with the Muslim world to lose there favour. (eg. Fra-Pak are negotiating on deal of $1.2bn for Mirage 2000-5 jets).

Why cant both sets of extremist jump in the lake, let the moderates in, Palestine stop suicide bombs, Israel stop occupation post 67 borders, and everyone live in peace!