Am Yisrael
03-02-2003, 04:43 AM
Mar. 2, 2003
Israel won't be involved in Iraq war
By Margeret Dudkevitch
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/A/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1046510084157
The US war on Iraq is inevitable and is expected to start any time from mid-March, a senior Israeli security official said Friday. But the war will not affect Israel, he said.
"When the US war in Iraq begins, there will be no war in Israel. Israel will not be involved and will not be at war. Fear or scenarios that Israelis will come under attack by scores of missiles daily and will be required to remain in sealed rooms for 30 to 40 days is not the scenario that will unfold," the official said.
The chance of attempts by Syria, Lebanon, or Hizbullah in the North to launch an attack on Israel during the US attack on Iraq are very slight, the official said, even though Syria has developed missiles that have a range of 700 kilometers and can carry nonconventional warheads.
The Syrian army's capability has weakened and it is at present more concerned with the American attack in Iraq and the outcome, the official said. "The Syrian threat exists, but its military capability is low," the official added.
A greater threat is the possibility or likelihood that terrorist organizations may take advantage of the US war in Iraq to attack Israeli and American targets abroad, similar to the attack in Mombassa, Kenya, last year against Israeli tourists and an Israeli airplane, the official said.
The US attack on Iraq today is far different than the situation in the Gulf War in 1991 when efforts focused on liberating Kuwait and ridding it of the Iraqi military presence, the official said.
Today the US is determined to topple Saddam Hussein, destroy all nonconventional weapons, and establish a new government or regime. Once the war is over the situation will require the presence of US or international forces to restore calm and prevent chaos from breaking out, which could take years, not months, the official said.
While two thirds of the Iraqi military was destroyed in 1991, it has managed to partially refurbish itself, but estimates regarding its current missile capability are based on speculation and assessments, and not clear cut information, the official said.
Saddam Hussein realizes that the US attack is unavoidable, but as a dictator he has proven he is a survivor and believes he will also survive the upcoming US attack, the official added. Therefore, chances that he will attempt to attack Israel prior to the US attack or during the first days of the US campaign are low, as they will be met with a harsh and swift US response, the official said.
For now Israel is more concerned with the outcome of the expected US attack, the official said. If the US campaign succeeds it will send a clear message to all those countries with extremist regimes and nonconventional weapons or long-range missile capability, all those who harbor or sponsor terrorism, that terrorism does not pay.
"The day after will not only affect the entire Middle East, but the world," the official said.
The year 2003 will be one of changes, not only due to the planned US war in Iraq but also on the Palestinian front. When the war in Iraq ends, efforts will focus on the Palestinians and whether there has been a change in the Palestinian leadership, the official said.
While many PA officials realize that the decision to use violence and terrorism as tools to gain political achievements has failed, the PA continues to encourage terror and has failed to take any real steps to combat and wipe it out, the official said.
Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat is clearly unable to supply any solutions for his people and the world has begun to realize that it is time he was replaced and a new leader installed who will be able to supervise the establishing of reforms and create a new regime, the official said. These changes must be accompanied by a crackdown on terrorism.
Hamas has opted to continue its strategy of suicide bomb attacks hoping to exhaust the Israeli public and create chaos. "Israel has proven in the past 28 months that it is steadfast and strong, and the aim of Hamas has failed," the official said.
Israel will continue to crack down on Hamas, and its ongoing military actions in the West Bank have succeeded in hampering the terrorist infrastructure, but the Gaza Strip is different, the official said.
Operations in the West Bank can focus on a specific Palestinian town without others being affected, but when troops enter the Zeitoun neighborhood it affects the entire Gaza Strip, he noted.
Although Israel refuses to negotiate with the Palestinians while the terrorism continues, when a new leadership is installed and makes real efforts to crack down on terrorism, Israel will be willing not only to assist it but will also renew negotiations in the hopes of restoring peace, the official said.
"While the road is long and could take a number of years until the situation changes, this year will signify the beginning of changes for the future," the official concluded.
Israel won't be involved in Iraq war
By Margeret Dudkevitch
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/A/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1046510084157
The US war on Iraq is inevitable and is expected to start any time from mid-March, a senior Israeli security official said Friday. But the war will not affect Israel, he said.
"When the US war in Iraq begins, there will be no war in Israel. Israel will not be involved and will not be at war. Fear or scenarios that Israelis will come under attack by scores of missiles daily and will be required to remain in sealed rooms for 30 to 40 days is not the scenario that will unfold," the official said.
The chance of attempts by Syria, Lebanon, or Hizbullah in the North to launch an attack on Israel during the US attack on Iraq are very slight, the official said, even though Syria has developed missiles that have a range of 700 kilometers and can carry nonconventional warheads.
The Syrian army's capability has weakened and it is at present more concerned with the American attack in Iraq and the outcome, the official said. "The Syrian threat exists, but its military capability is low," the official added.
A greater threat is the possibility or likelihood that terrorist organizations may take advantage of the US war in Iraq to attack Israeli and American targets abroad, similar to the attack in Mombassa, Kenya, last year against Israeli tourists and an Israeli airplane, the official said.
The US attack on Iraq today is far different than the situation in the Gulf War in 1991 when efforts focused on liberating Kuwait and ridding it of the Iraqi military presence, the official said.
Today the US is determined to topple Saddam Hussein, destroy all nonconventional weapons, and establish a new government or regime. Once the war is over the situation will require the presence of US or international forces to restore calm and prevent chaos from breaking out, which could take years, not months, the official said.
While two thirds of the Iraqi military was destroyed in 1991, it has managed to partially refurbish itself, but estimates regarding its current missile capability are based on speculation and assessments, and not clear cut information, the official said.
Saddam Hussein realizes that the US attack is unavoidable, but as a dictator he has proven he is a survivor and believes he will also survive the upcoming US attack, the official added. Therefore, chances that he will attempt to attack Israel prior to the US attack or during the first days of the US campaign are low, as they will be met with a harsh and swift US response, the official said.
For now Israel is more concerned with the outcome of the expected US attack, the official said. If the US campaign succeeds it will send a clear message to all those countries with extremist regimes and nonconventional weapons or long-range missile capability, all those who harbor or sponsor terrorism, that terrorism does not pay.
"The day after will not only affect the entire Middle East, but the world," the official said.
The year 2003 will be one of changes, not only due to the planned US war in Iraq but also on the Palestinian front. When the war in Iraq ends, efforts will focus on the Palestinians and whether there has been a change in the Palestinian leadership, the official said.
While many PA officials realize that the decision to use violence and terrorism as tools to gain political achievements has failed, the PA continues to encourage terror and has failed to take any real steps to combat and wipe it out, the official said.
Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat is clearly unable to supply any solutions for his people and the world has begun to realize that it is time he was replaced and a new leader installed who will be able to supervise the establishing of reforms and create a new regime, the official said. These changes must be accompanied by a crackdown on terrorism.
Hamas has opted to continue its strategy of suicide bomb attacks hoping to exhaust the Israeli public and create chaos. "Israel has proven in the past 28 months that it is steadfast and strong, and the aim of Hamas has failed," the official said.
Israel will continue to crack down on Hamas, and its ongoing military actions in the West Bank have succeeded in hampering the terrorist infrastructure, but the Gaza Strip is different, the official said.
Operations in the West Bank can focus on a specific Palestinian town without others being affected, but when troops enter the Zeitoun neighborhood it affects the entire Gaza Strip, he noted.
Although Israel refuses to negotiate with the Palestinians while the terrorism continues, when a new leadership is installed and makes real efforts to crack down on terrorism, Israel will be willing not only to assist it but will also renew negotiations in the hopes of restoring peace, the official said.
"While the road is long and could take a number of years until the situation changes, this year will signify the beginning of changes for the future," the official concluded.