PDA

View Full Version : THE DISASTER (Notes on the Roadmap)


humus_sapiens
05-05-2003, 12:30 AM
by Boris Shusteff

I. On April 29, speaking at the Palestinian Legislative Council, the new Palestinian Prime-Minister-elect Abu Mazen stated, “the Roadmap must be implemented, not negotiated.” His call to the Quartet “to announce the Roadmap as we know it, …and to guarantee and verify the implementation of each phase with an effective and guaranteed enforcement and monitoring mechanisms” should have brought a chill to supporters of Israel. His unequivocal “we will not negotiate the Roadmap” should have been more than sufficient warning about the content of the document that would finally be published on April 30.

And behold, it was! Since Britain’s infamous White Paper, with the
exception of the UN’s “Zionism is racism” resolution, it is hard to find any other international document that is so palpably anti-Israel (i.e. anti-Jewish). The Quartet – the USA, the EU, the UN and Russia – has done a “superb” job of creating a document that, in its essence, is nothing but a death warrant for the Jewish state.

II. In order to understand why the Roadmap is so dangerous for Israel we must look at what was lacking in the Oslo Accords (OA) that prevented the Palestinian Arabs from moving full speed towards their ultimate goal, proclaimed originally in the PLO Charter, and never repealed or amended since – namely “the liberation of Palestine,” and the destruction of the Jewish state. The Arabs have always tried to use so-called vise tactics in dealing with Israel, squeezing her from two directions. On one side, the aim is to gain maximal tangible substantial assets such as obtaining land, freezing construction of Jewish settlements, evicting Jews from disputed lands, bringing more Arabs into Judea, Samaria and Gaza (Yesha), etc. On the other side, in order to keep the fire of Arab hatred against the Jewish state inextinguishable, they have worked to give as few verbal promises as possible of the sort that could be interpreted by the general Arab public as concessions to Israel.

From this perspective, the Oslo agreement gave the PLO leadership a certain foothold in Yesha in exchange for the empty declaration that the PLO “commits itself… to the peaceful resolution of the conflict” and “renounces the use of terrorism and other acts of violence.” However, it had no self-implementing provision that would allow the Arabs to gain control over the land. The OA technically gave them only administrative authority over the people and not over the land. Whatever they obtained from Israel was only because of Israel’s good will, and was technically not enforceable through the OA.

Moreover, the OA forced the Arabs to agree to Israel’s demand for direct negotiations. This was an issue to which they had consistently objected, since from their standpoint it meant that, by accepting Israel as a negotiating partner, they were accepting Israel’s existence as a legitimate state, which contradicted their stated goal of its destruction. Therefore, the Arabs have always wanted to have a third party present at the negotiations, to be able to blame on it any concessions they would be forced to make, while at the same time hoping to use it as additional leverage to pressure Israel.

Briefly summarizing, for the Arabs to continue on the road toward Israel’s destruction, the OA was lacking several very important provisions. It did not have a clause that guaranteed the Arabs sovereign control over the land that they needed to advance their Plan of Stages. It did not have a mechanism directed against Jewish settlement activity. It forced the parties to conduct direct negotiations with each other, and, as will become clear later, it was reversible, meaning that Israel could stop her retreat if she felt that it endangered her existence.

III. The freshly released Roadmap completely changes the whole Oslo equation. It gives the Arabs absolutely everything that they dreamed of, and gives Israel nothing that hasn’t been “given” before. The Roadmap allows the PA to continue its policy of squeezing out Israel while demanding from the Arabs only intangible promises in return. (Especially worrisome in this context is the fact that the Arabs have thus far achieved almost all of their aims not through good will and honest negotiation with Israel, but through continuous murderous terrorism).

To begin with, the Roadmap brings a third party into the negotiations. The Roadmap officially gives the Arabs the mechanism that they sought from the very beginning. The third party will be constantly present in sorting out relations between the two sides. And this will not be just any third party. This third party is the Quartet. The Roadmap constantly stresses its role: “The Quartet will meet regularly at senior levels to evaluate the parties' performance on the implementation of the plan.” “Progress into Phase II will be based upon the consensus judgment of the Quartet.” “Progress into Phase III, based on consensus judgment of Quartet…” One can easily predict the nature of the Quartet’s “consensus judgment,” since it consists of the consistently anti-Israel UN, the mostly anti-Semitic European Union and Russia, and the openly pro-Arab US State Department. The two International Conferences envisioned by the Roadmap will only enlist several more anti-Semitic players, such as Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, etc. into pressuring Israel into more concessions.

The second provision needed by the Arabs, which was absent in the OA is now the essence of the Roadmap itself. Its loudly proclaims as its goal “the emergence of an independent, democratic, and viable Palestinian state.” Oslo did not even mention any “Palestinian state.” While some argued that it implied the creation of such a state, in reality it spoke only of establishing a “Palestinian Interim Self-Government Authority… in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, for a transitional period not exceeding five years leading to a Permanent Settlement based on Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338.” Anyone who has read these resolutions at least once obviously knows that they do not mention any Palestinian state whatsoever.

Thus, instead of a vague document speaking about some “Palestinian Authority,” the Roadmap stresses as its central goal the creation of a Palestinian state. Anybody who follows the semantics of documents related to the Israeli-Arab confrontation will notice that with every new document the pro-Arab language becomes more pronounced. For instance, while the Mitchell Report referenced in the Roadmap was the first document to mention a “Palestinian state,” the Roadmap already speaks about a “VIABLE Palestinian state”.

The third provision of the Roadmap that is disastrous for the Jews and priceless for the Arabs pertains to the so-called “settlements.” The OA did not prevent the settlement of Jews in Yesha. There was nothing in the document that dealt with construction in Jewish settlements. The Jews were under no restrictions to continue building settlements on ancient Jewish land. It is because of this reason that the Arabs have directed the brunt of their terrorist attacks against Jews living in Yesha. They tried to frighten the Jews and force them to leave by means of a murderous terror campaign. But they did not succeed. On the contrary, the Jews stayed put, demonstrated courage and resilience, and the number of so-called “Jewish settlers” in over nine years since the signing of the Oslo agreement has substantially increased. Now, like a reward for their incessant terror, the Roadmap comes to the Arabs’ rescue. It is aggressively anti-Jewish on the issue of Jewish settlements, while not even mentioning the Arab settlements that have mushroomed exponentially on the same disputed land. According to the Roadmap, in Phase 1, “GOI [the Government Of Israel] immediately dismantles settlement outposts erected since March 2001. Consistent with the Mitchell Report, GOI freezes all settlement activity (including natural growth of settlements).” This unequivocal demand is an unprecedented interference with the matters of a sovereign state. The wording “including natural growth” is simply shocking. What is meant by this absolutely outrageous and shameless demand? Perhaps the Quartet wants Israel to relocate a Jewish man or woman out of a particular settlement every time that a little Jewish boy or girl is born there?

humus_sapiens
05-05-2003, 12:31 AM
Part 2 of 2.

VI. The fourth provision that plays into Arab hands is that the Roadmap is irreversible, unlike the OA, as was mentioned before. Paragraph 4 of Article 5 of the Israel-PLO Declaration of Principles (“Oslo-1”) stated, “The two parties agree that the outcome of the permanent status negotiations should not be prejudiced or preempted by agreements reached for the interim period.” This clause protected Israel from the disastrous consequences of the Agreement allowing her at any moment to reverse the course of events. The Roadmap eliminates this option and does not allow for any reversals. As soon as the new Arab state is created there is no way for Israel to bring the situation back. These four substantial provisions that differentiate the Roadmap from the OA are more than enough for the Arabs not to want to negotiate the Roadmap and demand its immediate imposition. Even more so because the document lacks an extremely important clause for the Jews. One might remember that Ehud Barak was ready to make a lot of concessions, hoping in return to gain assurance of the end of the conflict. “The end of the conflict” for Israel means not only the conflict with the Palestinians, but the conflict with the whole Arab world. Professor Yehoshafat Harkabi brilliantly explained this point in a series of excellent articles in the early 1970s.

And this is exactly the key element that is lacking in the Roadmap.
Even the subtitle for Phase III reads, “Permanent Status Agreement and End of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict,” meaning that the End of the Israeli-Arab conflict is not envisioned by the authors of the Roadmap. The argument may arise that this is inaccurate, since the last sentence of the Roadmap speaks of “Arab state acceptance of full normal relations with Israel and security for all states of the region in the context of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli Peace.” However, this declaration is nothing but a fig leaf of verbal even-handedness. It is a mere slogan, equivalent to declaring that “All people in the world must live in peace.” This becomes especially clear after reading the preamble, which lays out “a roadmap with clear phases, timelines, target dates and benchmarks aiming at progress through reciprocal steps.” The number of specific phases, timelines, target dates and steps assigned in the Roadmap to the Arab states in the “context of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace” is precisely zero!

This is the main reason why Yasser Arafat, Abu Mazen, Saeb Erekat and other Palestinian Arab leaders embrace the Roadmap so eagerly. It allows them to move towards their ultimate goal – the destruction of Israel – without denouncing any of their claims. Previously, under the auspices of Oslo, it was impossible for the Arabs to move toward the creation of an Arab state based on the OA without proclaiming an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict, because otherwise the Jews would not have agreed to their statehood. Now the Arabs do not have to bother with this at all. The only real requirement that the Palestinian Arabs have to fulfill to be rewarded with a state is to “DECLARE an unequivocal end to violence and terrorism and undertake VISIBLE efforts on the ground.” In other words, the requirement for democratization is a mere hoax that can be easily satisfied. Of course it does not mean that the terror will really cease. “Declarations” and “efforts” might be insufficient to stop terror, but they will be good enough for the Quartet to make a “consensus judgment” and allow the Arabs to establish their state.

Even in the best-case scenario for Israel, if the terror really stops
it will be a temporary respite. The Arabs, well aware that all the
“improvements” to the original OA became the part of the Roadmap only as a result of their continuing terror will undoubtedly employ it again, once they’ve had time to restore the terrorist infrastructure. This time it will take place in an “independent and viable state,” in which Israel will be unable to prevent it from happening. Since after the Arab state is created, any hypothetical Israeli anti-terror incursion would be conducted not into disputed land but into “sovereign Arab territory,” it will be immediately classified by the international community as outright “unprovoked” aggression.

V. These quick notes do not even uncover the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the Roadmap’s anti-Israel nature. It is replete with anti-Israel clauses, statements and paragraph, hypocritical statements and anti-Israel bias. And if today the Oslo Agreements are recognized to have turned out disastrously for Israel, very soon the Roadmap will prove to be an even greater disaster. Significantly, the Arabs are very well aware of this. MEMRI recently quoted Abu Mazen, speaking in July 2002 to Fatah Commanders and leaders in the Gaza Strip, saying, “Israel… made the biggest mistake of its life when it supported the Oslo Accords.” He also stated, “In the Oslo agreement, we took land without giving anything in exchange, while the issues of the permanent status are still [pending].”

If Israel travels along the road predicated by the Roadmap, she will only accelerate her own demise. At the end of the Roadmap, Abu Mazen or some other Palestinian Arab will honestly tell the Arabs, “With the help of the Roadmap, we took more land and created our state without giving anything in exchange, while the issues of the permanent status are still [pending].” And he will be absolutely right, since the Roadmap gives not a single hint as to how these permanent status issues can be resolved, knowing well that the gap between Israel and the Arabs on these issues is unbridgeable.

The Oslo years have clearly demonstrated that these “permanent status” issues – Jerusalem, refugees, and permanent borders, coupled with the main issue of the Arabs’ refusal to accept Israel’s right to exist as a sovereign state in the Middle East – are the real crux of the problem. Any attempts to approach them have shown the complete incompatibility of any solutions acceptable to both parties. By not even tackling them, the Roadmap tacitly admits that it is useless to speak about any realistic peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The Israeli Jews were na?ve and ignorant when Israel was forced by her leaders into the Oslo agreements. After almost ten years of the Oslo experience there are no excuses for saying that we cannot know what to expect from the Roadmap. It’s only necessary to read it in order to understand all the disastrous consequences for Israel that will follow if it is implemented. Luckily one clause in it gives the Jews an escape route.

The Roadmap declares in its preamble that “the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will only be achieved… through Israel’s readiness to do what is necessary for a democratic Palestinian state to be established.” Therefore it is Israel’s right and duty to take this opportunity to loudly and clearly say “NO” to a Palestinian state casting the Roadmap into the dustbin of history, where it belongs.

humus_sapiens
05-05-2003, 12:41 AM
All correct, except this phrase: "new Palestinian Prime-Minister-elect Abu Mazen". He's rather hand-picked by Arafat.

Jorge
05-06-2003, 12:26 PM
The article by Mr.Boris Shusteff quoted by humus sapiens (posts #1 and #2, above) is certainly apocalyptic in his wording but also full of distorted interpretations of the Road Map and of the present situation of the israeli-palestininan conflict. Some of Mr. Shusteff's contentions are rather picturesque , to put it mildly; quote:

The Quartet ? the USA, the EU, the UN and Russia , has done a superb job of creating a document that, in its essence, is nothing but a death warrant for the Jewish state.

III. The freshly released Roadmap completely changes the whole Oslo equation. It gives the Arabs absolutely everything that they dreamed of, and gives Israel nothing that hasn?t been ?given? before. The Roadmap allows the PA to continue its policy of squeezing out Israel while demanding from the Arabs only intangible promises in return. (Especially worrisome in this context is the fact that the Arabs have thus far achieved almost all of their aims not through good will and honest negotiation with Israel, but through continuous murderous terrorism).

It's interesting to learn that Israel has been "squeezed out" by the PA. As far as the newspapers inform us, the IDF has under its control all palestinian towns, villages and refugee camps; most of them have been under curfew or isolated from the rest for most of last year; military roadblocks ensure that there's no free passage of the population trough connecting roads; more than a 100 new israeli settlements and outposts have been created in the last 18 months. To conclude from these developments that Israel is being "squeezed out" certainly requires a wild imagination.

"Worrisome is the fact that the Arabs have thus far achieved almost all of their aims…" Again, as far as the newspapers tell us, the Arabs have achieved absolutely nothing thus far. On top of what I said above, a huge number of buildings have been bombed or bulldozed, the educational and health structures seriously disorganized and the civil administration disbanded. How can anyone read from there that they have achieved most of their aims?

"The Road Map gives the Arabs absolutely everything they have dreamed of" Not being a palestinian myself I'm not quite sure of what do they dream of. However, I would risk that a Palestinian State within provisional borders (i.e. September 2001), no territorial continuity bet. the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, no solution to the refugee problem, no decision upon the final status of Jerusalem may hardly be identified with their wildest dreams.

SteveMetch
05-06-2003, 01:02 PM
Proposal

Step 1: Divide the West Bank and Gaza into approx. 1,000 logical land tracts.

Step 2: Announce to the world that every Israel citizen killed from this point forward will result in the annexation of 1 land tract in the order outlined by a published map.

Step 3: After a terrorist attack has killed X number of citizens the appropriate set of land tracts will be annexed and all Non-Israel citizens will be forcibly removed from the land tract.

Step 4: Any structures deemed unnecessary or that represent a security risk will be removed.


The logical order of land tracts:

Land tracts around the green line that improve security

Land tracts which help connect settlements to what is currently Israel

Land tracts that contain no Arab populations (settlements, open land etc)

Land tracts that contain shanty town Arab populations

Land tracts that do not include infrastructure (power plants etc)

Land tracts that does include infrastructure

Land tracts that contain more permanent Arab populations

All remaining land

Currently there is no established non-ambiguous price tag on violence; as such Israel lives have no value to the Arabs. Placing a definite value on each murder will bring some measure of meaning to the death of so many people as well as establish an ultimate end to the death toll.

Land for Peace has failed. Its time to give Peace or Land a try.


There are two possible long term out comes to this

Arabs stop killing Jews, 100 to 200 years from now when both populations have not grown up in an environment of mutal hate they will be able to form a Liberal Democracy. (Note the Arabs populations are not ecomomically viable without Israel)

Arabs continue to kill Jews and are removed from all of Gaza and the West Bank.

SteveMetch
05-06-2003, 01:05 PM
Originally posted by SteveMetch
Proposal

Step 1: Divide the West Bank and Gaza into approx. 1,000 logical land tracts.

Step 2: Announce to the world that every Israel citizen killed from this point forward will result in the annexation of 1 land tract in the order outlined by a published map.

Step 3: After a terrorist attack has killed X number of citizens the appropriate set of land tracts will be annexed and all Non-Israel citizens will be forcibly removed from the land tract.

Step 4: Any structures deemed unnecessary or that represent a security risk will be removed.


The logical order of land tracts:

Land tracts around the green line that improve security

Land tracts which help connect settlements to what is currently Israel

Land tracts that contain no Arab populations (settlements, open land etc)

Land tracts that contain shanty town Arab populations

Land tracts that do not include infrastructure (power plants etc)

Land tracts that does include infrastructure

Land tracts that contain more permanent Arab populations

All remaining land

Currently there is no established non-ambiguous price tag on violence; as such Israel lives have no value to the Arabs. Placing a definite value on each murder will bring some measure of meaning to the death of so many people as well as establish an ultimate end to the death toll.

Land for Peace has failed. Its time to give Peace or Land a try.


There are two possible long term out comes to this

Arabs stop killing Jews, 100 to 200 years from now when both populations have not grown up in an environment of mutal hate they will be able to form a Liberal Democracy. (Note the Arabs populations are not ecomomically viable without Israel)

Arabs continue to kill Jews and are removed from all of Gaza and the West Bank.

note: replace "environment of mutal hate" with "environment free of mutal hate"

humus_sapiens
05-11-2003, 12:39 AM
Steve,
I like your plan. Let the Arabs prove that they want the land more than to murder the Jews.

humus_sapiens
05-11-2003, 12:41 AM
A road map to Israel's oblivion (by Cal Thomas)
May 05, 2003

President Bush appears ready to press ahead with the "road map" to establish a Palestinian state that can only jeopardize the continued existence of Israel.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell says the road map -- drafted last year by the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations -- will be published once the new Palestinian prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, is on the job.

This is sham Middle East theater. Having gained so many concessions from Israelis without living up to a single agreement they have signed, Palestinian leaders are not about to rescind their political-religious objective of eliminating Israel as a state and the Jewish presence in the region. The administration is as anxious to declare victory in the maddening Middle East conflict as the Nixon administration was to end the Vietnam War. Thirty years ago, President Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger trumpeted "peace with honor" following talks with North Vietnamese leaders in Paris. South Vietnam soon fell to the Communists, who had never abandoned their vision of one country under their dictatorial control. Israel could easily become like South Vietnam -- overrun by its enemy -- if the "road map" is implemented.

Among the road map's many problems is that it fails to fulfill President Bush's own conditions. In a speech last June, the president said the United States will not support the establishment of a Palestinian state until its leaders engage in a "sustained fight against the terrorists and dismantle their infrastructure." That is unlikely to happen since terrorism has been the official policy of Yasser Arafat and his bloody band of brothers for more than 30 years. The faux "democracy" that Abbas supposedly represents is about as credible as one of Saddam Hussein's near-unanimous elections.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair has said there can be no lasting peace in Northern Ireland until the Irish Republican Army destroys its hidden weapons, renounces violence and commits to a political process. He is right about that, but wrong when he and President Bush want to push ahead with their Middle East road map without making similar demands of the Palestinian leaders.

The new Palestinian cabinet is full of Arafat supporters. As many as 14 ministers are expected to be old Arafat appointees with just four to six loyal to Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen). While Abbas controls one "security" organization, Arafat still commands many far larger ones. Arafat refuses to accept Abbas' "demand" that the armed factions of Fatah, such as the Al-Aqsa martyrs brigade, be dissolved. Arafat will continue to be the puppeteer, no matter whom the audience sees on stage. He will resemble Richard Gere in the film "Chicago," pulling the strings and providing words for his dancing marionettes.

Abbas retains his hard-line views. If implemented, they will jeopardize Israel's very existence. In an interview last month, he continued to justify "armed struggle" against Israeli civilians. He has never repudiated his 1983 book, "The Other Side: The Secret Relationship Between Nazism and the Zionist Movement," which denies the Holocaust occurred.

The minimum requirement before moving ahead with any "road map" is for Abbas and his cabinet to renounce violence as a means of achieving their objectives and then begin dismantling the terror infrastructure that has murdered schoolchildren and adult civilians for more than three decades. If that happens, the pressure will shift to Israel to reciprocate. But it won't happen because this conflict isn't about "two states living side by side in peace," as President Bush wants. It is about creating a new state that will be used as a base to eliminate Israel.

That Palestinian objective won't change because abolishing Israel is in the corrupted blood of Arafat and all his henchmen, including Abbas. The standard for compliance about violence should be no different from that applied to the IRA by Tony Blair in Northern Ireland or to Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

Surely President Bush knows this. Perhaps he is merely staging his own political theater to expose Arafat and company as the liars they are. That's fine, but Israel should not be required to buy a ticket to this show until it sees the last act.

Jorge
05-14-2003, 11:51 AM
The solemn opening statements of Cal Thomas article, quoted in humus sapiens #7, reads:

President Bush appears ready to press ahead with the "road map" to establish a Palestinian state that can only jeopardize the continued existence of Israel.

The pronouncement is certainly frightening, which may very well be the author's intention. Two questions come immediately to mind:

1) Why would the Bush administration be interested in jeopardizing the continued existence of Israel?

2) In which way does the creation of a Palestinian State as outlined in the Road Map jeopardizes the continued existence of Israel?

As to the first question: the Bush administration has been up to now the most staunchest supporter that any Israel government ever had. During Mr. Bush's presidency the impression here all the time has been that the israeli government could get away with murder without raising more than a mild "nu,nu,nu…" from the White House. Israel managed to carry out its policies towards the palestinians on the basis of this tacit support from the US administration. The answer that comes to mind is that the american government is not suddenly interested in jeopardizing the existence of Israel; that this is not a sudden change of heart, but the conviction that the Road Map is in the best interests of Israel and of the entire region.

A bit of paranoia always helps but aren't we exaggerating a little? The Bush administration an enemy of Israel?

As to the second question: of course the initiatives contemplated in the Road Map may jeopardize the continued existence of Israel. The same may be said of the Oslo agreement, the Madrid conference, the peace treaty with Egypt, etc. etc., Israel's situation is so precarious nowadays that any move may be thought to jeopardize its existence. But, who says that perpetuating the present policy of occupation and repression is devoid of danger? For how long can we keep palestinians under the army boot without unleashing a regional conflagration?

A hundred objections may be raised against the Road Map or against any other peace initiative that's placed on the negotiating table.

The risks of pursuing a peaceful settlement have to be weighed against the risks of continuing the present confrontation for the foreseeable future. This is the main question. The Quartet's leaderships, having done so, came with the Road Map as an answer; let's hope that the israeli and palestinians leaderships will concur.

humus_sapiens
05-21-2003, 12:46 AM
Originally posted by Jorge
1) Why would the Bush administration be interested in jeopardizing the continued existence of Israel?


Oil?


the Bush administration has been up to now the most staunchest supporter that any Israel government ever had.


And the first who announced the "vision" of Falastin and ran to the UN to get the resolution.

Originally posted by Jorge
2) In which way does the creation of a Palestinian State as outlined in the Road Map jeopardizes the continued existence of Israel?


Are you familiar with Israel's 15 objections? Return of millions Pal "refugees", for one.


The risks of pursuing a peaceful settlement have to be weighed against the risks of continuing the present confrontation for the foreseeable future. This is the main question. The Quartet's leaderships, having done so, came with the Road Map as an answer; let's hope that the israeli and palestinians leaderships will concur.

Let's keep hoping for the best, but let's not forget that peace has at least two parents. If one side is bent on destructing the other, any peacemaking, sacrifices, goodwill gestures won't make sense.