Big Bribes and Empty Gestures

[NewsGuy]

Original IsraelForum.com analysis:


Big Bribes and Empty Gestures
By Michael Rand
www.IsraelForum.com

(IsraelForum.com) -- The events unfolded like scenes in a macabre theater of the absurd: First, a new Palestinian prime minister was sworn in, hailed as a "man of peace" by U.S. President George Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell. In retrospect, it seems that the White House was far too busy showering Abu Mazen with compliments to recall that the new Palestinian prime minister is not a legitimate statesman, but a racist Holocaust denier and a puppet of arch-terrorist Yasser Arafat.

Then, on the very same day of the Palestinian inauguration, two Islamic suicide bombers exploded a bomb in a Tel Aviv nightclub filled with Jewish teens, and located less than a stone's throw from the U.S. embassy. The message was a clear one, that is, the Palestinians will never willingly give up their stated goal of mass-murdering each and every Jew living in the Jewish homeland.

Undeterred by such mundane matters as the slaughter of Jewish teenagers, the White House responded with a pro-forma condemnation of the Palestinian attack and proceeded to release its ridiculous "Roadmap for Peace," which mandates a fully armed Palestinian state alongside Israel, in less than two years. The Roadmap pays lip service to the theoretical concept of requiring the Palestinians to dismantle their terrorist groups, but does not make the creation of a Palestinian state contingent upon actually making any real progress in this regard.

Payoffs for Palestinian enemies

Of course, the Palestinians would be hard-pressed to focus their attention on opposing terrorism, considering that they are still extremely busy attending pro-Islamic, anti-American rallies. In fact, the non-stop public demonstrations in which the Palestinians burn American flags and denounce the American enemy, are enough to keep every Gaza resident busy for the next twenty years.

Notwithstanding the fact that the Palestinians backed Saddam Hussein, and are bitter enemies of the U.S., Colin Powell and others in the White House have undertaken to force the American taxpayer to shell out no less than $50 million as a direct bribe to Arafat's brutal regime. And at the same time, the White House has decided to squeeze America's only solid ally in the region, Israel, to make wide-sweeping concessions to appease America's Palestinian enemies. Why? Because the White House needs to take certain cosmetic steps to show that it has made an effort to bring about a solution to the Palestinian problem.

After making the necessary gestures, the Bush administration will be free to walk away from the Mideast crisis, and attend to much more urgent matters like getting U.S. troops out of Iraq, tackling the sagging American economy and focusing on Bush's reelection campaign.

Going through the motions

As a practical matter, no one in the Bush administration really believes that the Roadmap has any chance of success, and they are correct in their assessment. Therefore, only eleven days after unveiling the Roadmap, the Bush administration quietly began to drop references to the plan in public statements. Instead, they are now advocating "mutual steps" only.

The Palestinians, too, don't believe that the Roadmap will be of any use. Along these lines, Arafat's Abu Mazen puppet has already indicated that he is not only powerless but also unwilling in principle to fight terrorism. The new prime minister knows full well that the Palestinian people overwhelmingly support terrorism against Americans and Israelis and, therefore, any real battle against Palestinian terrorist groups is sure to result in a Palestinian civil war. For Abu Mazen, who has no popular support in the Palestinian street, undertaking anything more ambitious than organizing shish kabob dinners for foreign dignitaries, is beyond his scope.

Israel, as well, is just playing along for the time being. Seeing that the Bush administration is mired down in the tricky task of preventing an Ayatollah-led takeover of post-war Iraq, it is well understood in the region that the U.S. is just looking for an honorable exit from the Middle East quagmire. It is becoming increasingly clear that the quick victory over Saddam's troops does not signal the historic opportunity that was hoped for.

In fact, Colin Powell has gone to great lengths to assure America's enemies like Syria and Iran that it has no intention of challenging their regimes. All that the White House requires of Syria, for example, is to turn over one or two Iraqi VIPs, and to utter a few words about closing down terrorist organization offices in Damascus. So far, though, Syria has not closed down the promised terrorist headquarters, nor has it discontinued its support of Hizbullah. This indicates that the U.S. effort in the Middle East and in its war against terrorism, in general, is just a cosmetic effort –- a message that has not gone unnoticed by a disappointed Israel.

Myth of the political solution

So, for the moment, the Mideast parties will follow the American lead in making enough gestures just to pass the time. Once the gestures are no longer required, as in the case of the inevitable further Palestinian terrorist attacks, the truth about Mideast peace will become evident yet again.

There is no political solution to the Palestinian problem but, rather, the Roadmap for peace demands a military solution. Until the Palestinian terror organizations are devastated militarily, the Palestinian people will never relinquish their genocidal national goals. And, since it is abundantly clear that the Palestinian leadership of Arafat and his Abu Mazen puppet will never do the job, and the U.S. will not get involved militarily, then it all comes back to Israel's ability to rid the region of Palestinian terrorism.

The greatest American contribution to Mideast peace is not paying 50 million dollar bribes to Arafat's terror administration. Rather, America should set its own Roadmap for warding off UN and European opposition to an Israeli military solution. Only the complete and utter destruction of the Palestinian forces of evil can set the region on a course to true peace and prosperity.

* * *

What's your opinion on this topic?

[NewsGuy]

btw - For the benefit of our newest members, I write articles for the forum under the pen-name of Michael Rand.

I don't believe that the U.S. has any responsibility to manage Middle East peace, and I am not ungrateful for the American efforts so far. On the contrary, the U.S. is Israel's best friend and I applaud the Bush administration's efforts to resist European pressure to let Arafat off the hook for his murder of thousands of Israelis.

But this latest Roadmap is lame and everyone knows that it will never work for the reasons I laid out above.

[LevyCohen]

Whatever the roadmap might become, it certainly will remain garbage...
as for the PA..the world which supports its terrorism does so for its own sick interests...I hope the bush administration will realize as much and not pressure too hard..
and im sick of the terrorists in syria pretending they want peace
-levy

[Isiah 2:4]

I want the best for Israel. But its greatest ally has always been its greatest enemy. Heres what i think about American involvement -

- CEO's and Vice presidents of Oil and Construction Companies enter the Senate, Congress and Republican party, paying for
succesive election campaigns and influencing each Administration.

- They then set up a 'society' called The Project for the New American Century. This means, a project aiming to improve American strategic power by use of Economic influence. The emphasis is of course, profit, profit, profit.

- For over ten years, this group of Politicians / Businessmen hound the succesive governments in D.C, until they can place people in Powerful positions. Enter Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld.

- Tragedy of September 11 attacks and the global increase in Terroist activity forms the catylyst for new wars. This emotional and devastating catastrophe is used by the men in high places to create a false sense of loosing security and uncertainty for the American people.

- The U.S forces go to Afganistan and Iraq. Here they can manipulate the oil wealth of the Region, and after bombing the place, bring all the American contractors in to re -build. Of course any layman will tell you, To re - build something, you have to knock it down in the firstplace.

- The subsequent pipelines built in the region, which were not allowed under the past governments of Saddam and the Taliban allow for much faster transport and production of oil, with greater efficiency = $$$$$

- all of the money gained alows Bush to lower taxes in the US, whilst bolstering Patiriotism through support of the War and keeping his popularity high among the public.

As for Israel and Palestine, well its obivious that this Roadmap is just the final decoration to a higly elaborate plan. The world thinks Bush is actually meddling in the region for the sake of Democracy and peace. Yeah, right...I don't think he, or any previous American governments have any real concern with being Israels Ally. -

- They can let people blame tax rises and foreign policy on Israel, whilst making billions for themselves.

Dont you see?

Israel has been played. Skanked. Used. There is no oil there. No wealth. It just so happens that when Americans started thinking about messing with that part of the World, Israel needed their help. Why do think they left israel out to dry before the 70's?

Because until kissinger came in, nobody cared. It was just a bunch of jews fighting for their survival. Then the american conservatives realised they could capitalise on the problems over there. In the past thirty years the American governments have managed to complete the biggest heist ever known to man.

They have been very, very clever about it. People talk about the 'Jewish Influence'. That was a myth which greedy Americans have sustained. Its the American influence that has crept around the world, all under the watchful eye of the CIA and the Pentagon.

The roadmap serves as a blanket, a veil and a facade with which to cover up Americas real interests. They dont want peace themselves, They sold all the weapons to the terrorists and the dictatorships.

These Americans i talk of represent only a small proportion of a great, moral nation, with wonderful people and natural beauty. Its up to you guys over there to make sure that you erase the corruption from your politics, It may be the downfall of your country other wise.

it certainly hasnt done Israel much good as of yet...

[humus_sapiens]

The roadmap is very well known:
1. Military victory
2. Full denazification and population exchange, preferably peaceful and compensated

Anything less will be counter-productive.

[LevyCohen]

I totally agree. (news item taken from A7) Ben Blustein was a victim of a terrorist attack at Hebrew University
last July. The terrorist, associated with Hamas, left a bag in the
cafeteria and left. When the explosion came, 9 students were killed.
Hebrew University is located in Jerusalem. It is a university
accredited to Israel. The address is Israel, its students are Israeli.
The teachers are Israeli. The streets surrounded Hebrew University are
Israeli.
The United States has yet to recognize these facts. The refusal for
Ben Blustein's death certificate show his place of death as
"Jerusalem, Israel" shows us a little bit of an insight how the US
views Jews and Israel.
Though the US has yet to recognize the capital of Israel as Jerusalem,
Jews still are allowed the freedom in the States that is offered.
Though the US will not declare African-American or White Supremacy
Racism, it did not veto the 1975 Zionism is Racism United Nations
Resolution.
The US does not advocate a policy of moving people from their homes in
Los Angeles for "Political Purposes" but advocates strongly the
transfer of Jews from Israel.
Israel's best friend has been the US, however, the US hasnt always
been the best friend to Israel. When Jonathan Pollard(who was never
convicted, the state department violated his terms of agreements and
his case was handled illegally) is released, when Jerusalem is the
capital of Israel inside ALL the State Department books, we can
complete the sentences.
As for the roadmap to hell....
Where are the "roadmaps" for Chechnya(Russia), the Balkans(Beligum),
Sudan(France), East Timor(the UN? The EU?) and other various countries
who are at war? What about the US's terrible destruction in
Afghanistan? Do we see a roadmap to "peace" for them?

[NewsGuy]

Originally posted by Isiah 2:4
- Tragedy of September 11 attacks and the global increase in Terroist activity forms the catylyst for new wars. This emotional and devastating catastrophe is used by the men in high places to create a false sense of loosing security and uncertainty for the American people.

The events of 9/11 did not create a false sense of losing security. On the contrary, they demonstrated in concrete terms that America is no longer immune to Arab terrorism, because America's soft stance on terrorism was taken by the terrorists to mean that the U.S. is weak and vulnerable.

I hope that after Afghanistan and Iraq the U.S. has now regained at least some of its deterrence. But letting terrorists like Arafat, Yassin, Nasrallah, Assad, and the Ayatollahs of Iran run free is not a real show of commitment to end terrorism. It is still a sign of weakness in the eyes of many in the Arab and Islamic world.

And paying the Palestinians $50 million is certainly taken as a reward for Arafat's terrorism. Not a good message at all.

[NewsGuy]

Originally posted by LevyCohen
The US does not advocate a policy of moving people from their homes in Los Angeles for "Political Purposes" but advocates strongly the transfer of Jews from Israel.

Right. Obviously, the U.S. has different interests than Israel, and that's fine. Each country should hold its own national interests supreme. But by the same token, Israel needs to put its own national interests first, following the example of every other nation on earth.

[Mercury]

Originally posted by Isiah 2:4
Heres what i think about American involvement -

- The U.S forces go to Afganistan and Iraq. Here they can manipulate the oil wealth of the Region, and after bombing the place, bring all the American contractors in to re -build. Of course any layman will tell you, To re - build something, you have to knock it down in the firstplace.

- all of the money gained alows Bush to lower taxes in the US, whilst bolstering Patiriotism through support of the War and keeping his popularity high among the public.


Even supposing that americans fully expropriate Iraq's oil it would take years before the original "investment" is repaid, so I don't see how Bush can use it to lower taxes during his term (even if he is reelected). No significant amounts of oil are found in Afganistan.

[Communication]

I agree with all those posts that temper Isiah's analysis, although I wouldn't rule it out completely since the United States has made a tremendous amount of money through weapons sales to both Israel and Israel's enemies and/or antagonists. There certainly was an economic advantage to keeping the situation going provided that tensions could be maintained at a certain level. There was also a strategic advantage from the viewpoint of the Arab states to keep the conflict going in order to drain Israel and detract attention from their own opporessive regimes, again provided that they could step in every now and then to quell the fire if it got too far out of control.

And I have to admit, that while many pro-Palestinian supporters argued that the Israelis would use the war in Iraq as an opportunity to transfer the Palestinians to Jordan, I had a hunch that it would rather lead to increased US pressure on Israel to pursue peace even if the Palestinians were still not ready to compromise and pursue peace, in order to increase their credibility in the Arab world so that they could better handle the post-war situation in Iraq.

Sometimes good things come from bad motives, so provided that Israel remains firm on their need to protect themselves until the Palestinians really do have the will and means to control terrorism, maybe it could all be for the best. The status quo wasn't working. But the US shouldn't be allowed to overlook what's going on (or not going on) and the world needs to face reality-Arafat still has plenty of loyalists in the PA to do his bidding and he still has control over the majority of the Palestinian security forces. Without control over the security apparatus, how can Abu Mazen do what needs to be done on the Palestinian side? The amount of reform that the Palestinians need to do is incredible and they refuse to abandon a right of return up front. So what happens if after all these initial stpes are taken, everything breaks down in the final hour over the issue of the right of return, as we saw happen during the Oslo Accords? How is this road map any different than Oslo?

[Mercury]

Originally posted by Communication
I wouldn't rule it out completely since the United States has made a tremendous amount of money through weapons sales to both Israel and Israel's enemies and/or antagonists

For the last ten years the average annual assistance of US to Israel, Egypt and Jordan was more than 5 billion dollars. I don't think US weapons sales in the region (yet alone net profits) exceeded this figure. If you know different statistics, please, give the source.

[Mediocrates]

The KSA purchases over 18 billion dollars of armaments and services per year - most of which are sourced from the USA. Moreover the UAE and Kuwait have both recently ramped up their procurement cycles from all sources including the US. The UAE is looking for helicopters and mobile armor. Kuwait is looking for fighter planes. Both also buy from Europe and Russia as well.

It's hard to tell the terms of those sales but since 1995 the KSA has had a 'special' agreement with the US to procure the latest and greatest. They now own at least two and possibly three of the most advanced AWACS platforms we can build as well as several battlefield C4 platforms and ECM platforms. The KSA also bought and received F16's in 1997-8 which at the time were MORE advanced than even our own deployed forces'.

[wellofvow]

The United States has two very serious problems that it refuses to recognize as problems, that of sending double messages and not demanding compliance from the PA.

"Even-handedness", a term I detest, is bilateral compliance with the huge loophole of being misinterpretation-friendly.

Regime reform was about elections. Elections in the PA were called off on a whim, and indefinitely, by Arafat, who was shortly after "not recognized" by the US.

Regime reform was about an EMPOWERED Prime Minister. This does NOT mean a PM who was chosen by the "not recognized" Arafat. This does NOT mean a PM who has to go to Arafat for approval of ANYTHING involving security or terrorism.

The EMPOWERED PM was to **eliminate** terror. Not "crack down", not "denounce", not "fight" or "go after" terrorists. So, now we see that Abu Mazen is indeed an Arafat clone, singing the same tune that Arafat sang for 10 years - that he is "unable" to eliminate terrorism. This is patently ridiculous. If he can figure out a way to sit down for a meeting with tea and baklawa with terrorist leaders, he knows how to locate them, and can arrest them and deport them rather than having a social affair with them.

An EMPOWERED PM needs NO "gestures" or "support" or "concessions" from Israel. Israel has nothing to do with PA politics. This is purely an internal PA matter. This was a condition placed on the PA. Any demands on Israel are just excuses for non-compliance to things that the PA never intended to comply with in the first place.

Newsguy is correct. Israel and the PA are just playing the same waiting games. It is a pity that the US has chosen to detour from their strategy of demanding SOME compliance from the PA before anything further is done, by forking over the $50 million grant and by the redundant Road Map, which is just a sop to Britain and Europe.

By denying or closing its eyes to these bald facts, the US is sending a very loud message to the PA that the "Road Map" is NOT serious. By giving the PA, which has received billions of dollars in financial support for humanitarian aid and economic infrastructure but has disappeared it all with no demands for accountability, a $50 million grant although they are swimming in money, there is the obvious message that they are being rewarded for non-compliance.

Do the wise ones in the State Department honestly think that the Palestinians, who hate the US, burn the flag, have regular hate-America protests, sent gunmen to support the Iraqi regime, etc. will see a penny of this $50 million, and that it will soften their hearts to America, and/or turn them into Junior Jeffersons in a week? I thought Pollyanna was a made-up character. It only tells them that what they have been doing until now is just fine, and will get them even more if they ratchet **up** the hate and murder, instead of decrease it.

[Mercury]

Originally posted by Mediocrates
The KSA purchases over 18 billion dollars of armaments and services per year - most of which are sourced from the USA.

What's KSA?

[Canajew]

Originally posted by Mercury
What's KSA?

Kindom of Saudi Arabia :)

[NewsGuy]

Just as a matter of interest, since Abu Abbas was appointed as puppet prime minister of the Palestinian Terror Authority, here are some of his "achievements":

- a massive suicide bombing in Tel Aviv

- over 50 mortar shell attacks on Israeli communities in the Gaza Strip

- 12 Kassam rocket attacks on towns inside Israel

- a car bomb containing hundreds of kilograms of explosives near Kfar Darom.

[L@mplighterM]

I think the article addresses the situation well and there’s nothing that I could add. The sad reality is that the world will never rid itself of Islamic terrorism and so I suppose we’ll have to live with it.

Individual humans apparently matter little in the greater scope of things to successive state leaders and are an easily replaced commodity. Every time there’s a terrorist attack world leaders go into their well-rehearsed spiel of condemnation, personally I think it’s just for show.

[Mercury]

Originally posted by Mediocrates
The KSA purchases over 18 billion dollars of armaments and services per year - most of which are sourced from the USA.

According to the information I found 18 billion represent the total military spending by KSA. The official numbers say that over the period 1991-2000 KSA purchased from USA weapons on 33 billion dollars, i.e. 3.3 billion per year.

[L@mplighterM]

Today there was a suicide bombing I Hebron a husband and his wife died from injuries sustained from the blast. It seems like it would have been a lot worse if the IDF hadn’t spotted the killer thus diverting his murderous journey.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/A/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1053155981206

Peace is going to remain elusive in the ME unless there’s a massive drive to eliminate terrorists and their supporters. Unfortunately such an event will never take place!

[NewsGuy]

Originally posted by L@mplighterM
Peace is going to remain elusive in the ME unless there’s a massive drive to eliminate terrorists and their supporters. Unfortunately such an event will never take place!

The only other way would be for an Israeli party to form, which is Centrist, but which supports the forced transfer of Arabs out of Israel, and in exchange would be willing to transfer Jews out of some of the disputed areas.

That way, a defensible border between Israel and the Palestinian terrorist entity could be built, which would prevent Arab terrorism from reaching Israel.

In this scenario, the Arabs could be free to conduct their Jihads in their own territories, and Israel will be free of the Arab threat to its existence.

btw - I saw a poll last week, which indicated that a majority of Israelis do support a population transfer.

[L@mplighterM]

A defensible border could theoretically eliminate terrorist attacks but that still leave rocket attacks.

Terrorist attacks in the former Soviet Union were non-existent as far as I know and that demonstrates clearly that one must disregard human rights to eliminate such acts. Following the footsteps of the former Soviet Union, Iraq engaged in terrorist acts against its own people and again to my knowledge there were no major attacks directed against that regime.

An analysis of states China being one that engaged in similar treatment of its citizens was able to eliminate terrorism.

The lesson being that unless you’re able to kill with impunity terrorism can’t be eliminated. Western states with their laws and rules of engagements will not tackle the war against terrorism with terrorism.

No western country will murder several thousand alleged terrorists/civilians and level their villages/towns because they are suspected of terrorism.
Arresting suspected terrorists one by one is a slow tedious process and by the time one is brought to trial two more are born.

Considering all the facts I’ve come to the sad conclusion that eliminating terrorism is a loosing battle. Go ahead and call me a pessimist but I’ll still think I’m a realist.

[humus_sapiens]

Originally posted by L@mplighterM
Considering all the facts I’ve come to the sad conclusion that eliminating terrorism is a loosing battle. Go ahead and call me a pessimist but I’ll still think I’m a realist.

As with any crime, there is a big difference between eliminating it and reducing it to negligible levels. To achieve that,
1. It must be made clear that it won't help any political cause.
2. Denazification is in store for the Muslims.

I am an optimist. It takes time, strategy, maybe change of some laws. The Cold War has lasted for almost 50 years, but we prevailed.

[L@mplighterM]

Originally posted by humus_sapiens
As with any crime, there is a big difference between eliminating it and reducing it to negligible levels. To achieve that,
1. It must be made clear that it won't help any political cause.
2. Denazification is in store for the Muslims.

I am an optimist. It takes time, strategy, maybe change of some laws. The Cold War has lasted for almost 50 years, but we prevailed.


I don’t think anyone can predict a day into the future never mind 50 years. Considering the fact that Islam is growing leaps and bounds and the opposite is happening in western countries. So on one side of the coin we have a growing Islam where the mean age is considerably younger than the west’s aging population on the other.

This scenario doesn’t look good to me.

BTW I hope you're right!

[Mediocrates]

Originally posted by Mercury
According to the information I found 18 billion represent the total military spending by KSA. The official numbers say that over the period 1991-2000 KSA purchased from USA weapons on 33 billion dollars, i.e. 3.3 billion per year.


Sorry, perhaps I erred. I do know that the primary reason our troops are there are to operate the equipment we sold them.

[RonE]

It seems to me, that the way things are going, events are spiralling towards one out of two possible scenarios:

1. In the future (50 years, 100 years, 1000 years, who knows?) there will be some form of compromised reached and a treaty will be signed giving the Palestinians their "state". After that, a period of "quiet" will follow but this will be the queit before the storm. With the help of this new Palestinian state and after organizing themselves, the Arabs will launch a full-blooded assault trying to eliminate Israel once and for all (contracts, after all are made to be broken aren't they?) following which, either they will be successful and deJewify Israel and replace it with Falastin, or Israel will hold out and then de-Arabify the territories and perhaps even be able to create a buffer-zone big enough to breath a little easier.

2. The same as the above, only the Arabs will try to attack without reaching the above stated "solution".

In a nutshell, that is what it will all boil down to, but either way you won't have BOTH Jews and Arabs living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.

[wellofvow]

Originally posted by NewsGuy
Just as a matter of interest, since Abu Abbas was appointed as puppet prime minister of the Palestinian Terror Authority, here are some of his "achievements":

- a massive suicide bombing in Tel Aviv

- over 50 mortar shell attacks on Israeli communities in the Gaza Strip

- 12 Kassam rocket attacks on towns inside Israel

- a car bomb containing hundreds of kilograms of explosives near Kfar Darom.

And now add Jerusalem and Afula. Hey, the "roadmap" was a stillbirth, please bury the body, it smells.

And what does President Bush say? He wants the new Arafat (who wears a suit - wow! - and shaves - wow!) to "crack down on terror".

Now, I have been hearing that line and similar ones for 10 years, and do not see why I or anyone has to tolerate this mollycoddling.

Abu Mazen can find the terrorist leaders to have meetings with them? So he can find them to arrest them and immediately deport them.

The time has looooong passed to "crack down" on terror, to "reduce" terror, to "denounce" terror, to "give up on terror as a strategy". People are still dying. Ordinary people, just going about their lives. Not soldiers in battle, not police in hot pursuit. People taking buses, people shopping in malls.

If the United States wants to be a serious player, they MUST give the Palestinians IMMEDIATELY a message that cannot be misinterpreted or twisted or avoided. ELIMINATE terror and terrorists.

The West is behaving very foolishly. Why is a jerk like Assad Jr. being treated like a respected statesman? Why is it expected in certain quarters for ISRAEL to be held responsible for PALESTINIAN corruption, fraud, murder, terrorism, unemployment, rising infant mortality, water contamination, and all the other things that the Palestinian-victims moan about? They got their PA with their beloved Arafat. Israel isn't in charge any more, until they murder just too many of us.

Never again means never again. Some people just don't understand. We will NOT be scapegoats again, no matter how many times idiots like Assad shoot off their mouths with the same old drivel to the same old gullible Newsweek.

[yehudi]

Originally posted by RonE
It seems to me, that the way things are going, events are spiralling towards one out of two possible scenarios:

1. the Arabs will launch a full-blooded assault trying to eliminate Israel
2. The same as the above, only the Arabs will try to attack


sorry to deleted your post a bit wildly, but it's to show the two scenarios are one and the same, actually.

Let's go on with the scenarios. I could add, "thanks to the spread of WMDs and the progress of technology, Israel gets destroyed sooner or later". When you focus the hatred of millions of people, it is likely some of them are scientists or have lots of money and they always blow you up in the end.

Sometimes I am very pessimistic.


I don't know what to add.
"At least when you die a just man it's better" ?
or "look at Europe, our countries were deadly ennemies once and now we have overcome this so much than we are slowly building a supranational power?".


yes I know what to add: "the alternative to a just peace is destruction" or "the alternative to destruction is a just peace" if you prefer.

.

[Mediocrates]

I see a third scenario. I see an Arab world so obsessed with the destruction of Israel that they don't acknowledge their own slide into festering third world anarchy. In the next 30 years the oil states will have to figure out how to manage in the post oil age. Combined with an exploding birth rate and decreasing revenues they will for all intents and purposes cease to function as countries. We will see an entire region of North Koreas who have nothing to sell but fear and the threat of extinction.

Their only option is to modernize their entire societies from top to bottom, improve education, human rights, change their economies. The alternative for them is a new Dark Ages and for us, the side effects of unending peripheral terrorism.

Israel will probably weather this era ok - they have all the basic tools: elections, a diverse economy, rights, literacy and so on. But for the arab states - - -

The future is so bright I need a radiation suit.

[RonE]

sorry to deleted your post a bit wildly, but it's to show the two scenarios are one and the same, actually.

Wow, aren't you a smart one? That was just the desired effect ;)

[Jorge]

Lamplighter post #21 raises a number of interesting points that merit further discussion, concerning the strife against terrorism.
The main dilemma that arises from Lamplighter's post is whether or not terrorism may be uprooted within the humanitarian limitations imposed by the democratic system. In support of the idea that only totalitarian regimes have successfully coped with terrorism, he points out, quote:

Terrorist attacks in the former Soviet Union were non-existent as far as I know and that demonstrates clearly that one must disregard human rights to eliminate such acts. Following the footsteps of the former Soviet Union, Iraq engaged in terrorist acts against its own people and again to my knowledge there were no major attacks directed against that regime.

There are several other examples of totalitarian regimes where terrorism is virtually absent (to quote a few from the ME: Syria, Egypt, Lybia,), that may be used to support that thesis. Problem is that also many examples may be raised to prove the contrary. The case of Algiers and of several Central American States come to mind in our times.
Looking back to the last century, we have the case of colonial powers, notably France and Britain, that in spite of using brutal repression did not succeed in eradicating terrorist attacks. Nazi Germany extensive use of collective punishments and other savage measures, did not succeed against saboteurs and resistance fighters
.
( Not for a moment I think to elevate the present Islamic murderers to the moral level of freedom fighters; I'm only trying to point out that brutal repression does not necessarily work out as a method for wiping out armed resistance).

quote:

Arresting suspected terrorists one by one is a slow tedious process and by the time one is brought to trial two more are born.

The arithmetic is just and sadly accurate: one is caught and you have two new ones waiting to take his place. We are witnessing such a process here in Israel and, at an international level, with Al Queda. In this light Lamplighter's conclusion that "eliminating terrorism is a loosing battle" appears justified.

I don't want to sound overtly optimistic, but there's the possibility that the present wave of islamic terrorism may just fade away. Looking back one remembers those anarchist bombers of the beginning of last century, killing and throwing bombs all around the place (according to school books one of them even started WWI).They didn't last for long. Closer to us we have the French and Italian terrorist gangs, which have also disappeared. So one may be, hopefully, inclined to think that terrorism of a given kind is not a permanent phenomenon, although terrorism of some kind or another seems to be nearly always present.

As many have pointed out before, one of the differences between the present wave of terrorism and previous ones in modern times is that civilians are indiscriminately targeted. Terrorism in the past has usually been selective, whereas now it takes the form of mass killings. Herein lies may be its main weakness; only people in a distorted frame of mind can justify and support it. If we could act against the conditions that create this distortion may be instead of "two more terrorists born" we'll have two normal ones.

To be continued…

[Mercury]

Originally posted by yehudi
I know what to add: "the alternative to a just peace is destruction" or "the alternative to destruction is a just peace" if you prefer.


Was Munich agreement a just peace in your opinion?

[Jorge]

I'd like to return to a paragraph in Lamplighter's post #21, quote:

Arresting suspected terrorists one by one is a slow tedious process and by the time one is brought to trial two more are born.

where a key sentence is "two more are born". This in turn asks for a key question:

Is some people born as terrorists or they are led to it by upbringing?

Upon the answer depends the policies needed to confront that 2 to 1 growth progression. If they are born as terrorists, little could be done short of ethnic cleansing or eugenics in selected cases. If they are led to terrorism by upbringing, that is, by the conditions in which children and youngsters grow, then the policies required are those designed to change some selected conditions.

This is of course an old-age question for which we don't have a clear-cut answer, given our present rudimentary knowledge of the human mind. The same question has recently been debated all over the US in connection with group murders in schools and restaurants. Are these criminals born deranged or something happened during their upbringing that led to their behavior? If one believes that the latter is the correct answer then the growth
of terrorism may be counteracted by changing the conditions in which a new generation of palestinians is going to grow up. This question should be addressed by all those interested in putting an end to the present cycle of bloodshed.