Time- IS it on Arab side?

[Noam]

This may be the most confusing and insidious issue of the conflict
When the Jews start worrying about time--- something goes awry
I have harped on this somewherelse (can't find it now).

Here is another thinker (religious I think- from Bar Ilan) on the subject:


Dec. 27, 2003
Play for time
By EFRAIM INBAR

Many in Israel believe that the current situation is untenable in the short run, thereby advocating changes in the status quo, even unilaterally.

This impatience is primarily the result of the Israeli psyche favoring activism and the Zionist formative slogan "the future is in our hands."

Yet, despite this rhetoric, a careful analysis of the Zionist conduct shows that a main component of national strategy was playing for time.

For example, David Ben-Gurion realized that Israel was too weak to impose peace on the Arabs and therefore must wait until the other side reluctantly recognized the reality of a Jewish state. In the meantime, the Jews built and strengthened their state.

Unfortunately, the Palestinians still entertain impossible dreams, such as inundating Israel with refugees or sovereignty over the Temple Mount. Despite the invocations from the Israeli peace sect about having a partner, it is obvious that peace is not attainable at present due to the inability of the Palestinians to establish a stable entity ready to suppress the elements fighting Israel.

If Israeli analysts are suspected of political bias when providing such a prognosis, the CIA seems to have less of a political ax to grind. It recently reached the conclusion that it is highly unlikely to see before 2020 a Palestinian leadership ready to make the necessary concessions for reaching a comprehensive agreement with Israel.
This means that Israel should continue to play for time vis-a-vis the Palestinians until they are ripe for a peace that is acceptable to Israel.
It is argued that between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River there will be an Arab majority in a few years – a demographic threat that requires urgent measures. In the past, the speculations about demographic trends affecting the ratio between Jews and Arabs have often proven wrong. Yet, even if the population projections materialize this time, they are irrelevant to the Jewish majority in Israel, which we want to keep.

(The fertility rates of Arab Israelis also seem to go down as this community is further exposed to modernization.)

It does not matter how many Palestinian babies are born in Gaza, Nablus or Jenin if Israel has no plans to annex these areas and is determined to stop the influx of Arabs into its own territory. Israel's Jewish majority is hardly affected by the number of Arabs beyond Israel's border.

Since 1993, the Israeli political system has clearly moved in favor of partition of the Land of Israel. Even most of the Likud leadership is reconciled to the idea of partition, excluding the option of Israeli permanent rule over the Palestinian population centers.

YET, AS long as the Palestinians continue to generate terror against Israel, the Jews will have to intervene militarily and to police even heavily-populated Palestinian urban centers.
Unless Egypt or Jordan takes responsibility over Palestinian territories in the near future, Israel must learn to live with a fluctuating Israeli military presence there due to security considerations. Demography is irrelevant to the need to protect Israel.

As a matter of fact, the demographic trends within Palestinian society should be of concern primarily to the Palestinians. They should have a clear interest in reducing drastically their extremely high birthrates.

With the current fertility rate, the Palestinians, according to Palestinian economists, need a steady economic growth of 7 to 8 percent just to supply jobs to all the youngsters joining the workforce. This is simply not within the reach of the Palestinian economy even if the capital infusion from abroad increases.

Actually, we can expect diminishing foreign aid as result of the demands for stricter transparency and the emergence of other foci for foreign aid, Iraq being just one example. The Palestinians, like other Muslims, will have no choice but to encourage birth control if they want to escape chronic poverty and subsequently decay – the inevitable result of the pauperization of their society.

Therefore, unless used wisely to change the social mores and the demographic trends, an unlikely scenario, time will weaken any Palestinian entity.

Time is also on Israel's side since most of the civilized world has finally realized that the Palestinian national movement needs basic reforms and a new leadership. The Palestinian main modus operandi – terror – lacks international legitimacy. The Palestinians, moreover, are not one inch closer to the establishment of a state than they were at the beginning of the war they started in September 2000. They are in a worse situation in every sense and no signs of improvement are in sight.

Finally, the zeitgeist of democracy and free market values also favors Israel rather than the Palestinians. Israel is democratic and enjoys a Western standard of living, while the trends among the Palestinians indicate political, social and economic decay.

The Jews have made much better use of time than the Arabs and this seems likely to continue.

The writer is professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University and the director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1072509700833

[Noam]

IT is getting better and better-- more brilliant minds are coming out and revealing the truth!....

Is time on the Arab sid?

Some say:
Israel must survive 60 more years...That's the bottom line....60 more years to go. Why 60...because at that time, Arab Oil wells will start running dry, and Israel will no longer be constantly assaulted by the oil weapon. ...

Well, here is one of the SHARPEST MINDS in Israel (Brig Gen Einav Giladi=The Guy in charge of most of the Startegic concepts in Israel in last few years, connected to American thinking strategies) on the subject (coming up in Weekend edition of Maariv):

**Arab world is in DISARRAY
**Pan Arabizm is DEAD ;
**No common Agenda among Arabs today,
**Middle East is going thru MAJOR UPHEAVAL;
**The INTERNET IS PERMEATING THE STREET;
**COmmunication is reaching the most remote villages-The Felahiin...
**The Arab on the street KNOWS THE TRUTH and the dictators CANNOT HIDE IT FROM THEM!
*****22 Arab nations COMBINED have GNP lower than SPAIN!!!
**Syrian University professor said recently that in SYRIA THEY DO NOT TEACH SCIENCE, Only History of science!
**The ability of the West to move and attack at might with sophisticated night vision weapons opened HUGE gap between the West and Arab world...

That makes the chance for a WAR in the future ==ZERO!!!

** THE WHOLE REGION IS GOING TO BE REDESIGNED SOON...

TIME IS DEFINITELY ON WESTERN CIVLIZATION SIDE!!!


Good reason to kiss hard under the miseltoe tonight.

[Noam]

Wrong name:

Remember the Name Eival Giladi.
Kurtzer, Conoleeza Rice, Bush and umpteen Stanford graduates do.
He is a Creative Thinker. Also a Kibbutznik (Cabri).
Q: "Can you call what the Americans are doing an Earth quake?"
G:
"We are seeing a fathomless change. Its potential was there prior to 9/1. The division of the world to East and West disappeared. Now the division is between those who chose Free market, Democracy, Technology, Individual rights—and those who were left on the other side. Look at the disintegration of the Arab world. Socialism collapsed, Pan Arabism weakened, Foreign rule (Otoman, British, French….) was replaced with local leaders that DID NOT IMPROVE a thing, on the contrary, WORSENED it. The Scientific revolution and Communicational revolution make it even harder on Arab dictators. The situation was bad before, but now with Al Jazeera and the Internet , EVERY ONE IS AWARE. Look at Mubarek, how frustrated he is at the growing gap between his image as a regional leader and reality. His leverage with the Americans is vanishing. He did not want the Americans to go into Iraq, he told them so, they listened and went in nonetheless.
"There is a United Nations Report on the situation of the Arab world. Arab scholars wrote it and they tell the WHOLE story. 22 Arab states combined have GNP smaller than Spain alone, and that is AFTER INCLUDING OIL PRODUCITON! There are hardly any SCIENTIFIC publications, number of translated books is miniscule. Ignorance, Poverty, lack of technology---WRONG DIRECTIONS. A professor at the Damascus University maid recently to one of my friends an interesting observation: 'We do NOT teach science, only the HISTORY of science. We do not have current text books, we do not have worthwhile research publications. No significant corporations, No Technology, EVERY PROJECT requires External experts.'
"These were the trends PRIOR to 9/11, now the whole things is ripening and has the potential of manufacturing a DIFFERENT MIDDLE EAST. The Americans in Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Egyp0t, Turkey, the Gulf emirates, the Magrab states, perhaps even IRAQ…everything looks DIFFERENT. It is organizing differently. Perhaps an EARTH QUAKE is too extreme a term, because the process does not occur suddenly but gradually. Perhaps CONTINENT MIGRATION is a better term. It is a LONG process, not immediate, but we CLEARLY SEE THE DIRECTION and MOST IMPORTANTLY—WE CAN DEFNITIELY AFFECT IT. Modestly, with low profile, without jumping to the headlines all the time. It is important that we identify and locate the opportunities and make our impact"

Q: Perhaps this rosy scenario is too optimistic? In the meantime the Americans are bleeding in Iraq, the Arab world shows no signs of democratization, the Islamic hatred to the west is only growing. Perhaps those old time dictators, like Assad and Mubarek, are those who maintain modicum of stability?

G:
"Perhaps it is better to focus . Let's look at the dramatic changes that took place in the Arab world. There is NO MORE common agenda like it was in the 50's, during Nasser, Pan Arabism, Pan Islamism. The likelihood of a surprise attack coordinated by three states on Israel is almost zero. This threat is Passe. I do not see Egypt starting a war against us unless we threaten them directly. Our (fragile) peace agreement survived Arafat's murder, War in Lebanon, two Gulf wars, Two intifadas. During First Gulf war when Israel was attacked with Scuds, they, the Egyptians went WITH the Americans against Iraq. ARABS AGAINST ARABS. That is a FATHOMLESS CHANGE. The Arab organization against Israel is disintegrating. The internal forces that were supposed to create common grounds, common interests, coherent, are weakening.

"True, the Middle East is not going to turn democratic tomorrow morning, but a slow (and tedious) process of such development is definitely possible. Take for example Women votes or women employment. You have to start with the small things, the simple ones. (president) Bush, in his West Point speech said that when you identify in a specific place Poverty, Ignorance, impoverishment, extreme ideologies that breed terrorism, you MUST NOT WAIT till terrorism blossoms, better invest NOW ahead of time in EDUCATION, INFRA STRUCTURE, INVESTMEMNTS that will CHANGE that REALITY. Therefore a lot depends on what the WEST and ISRAEL
do in the next few years. We are totally unique in the region and we are a very SIGNIFICANT PLAYER in it."

…Interview with Ben Kaspin, Maariv 1.2.2004 Weekend edition pages 12-18.

[Communication]

I absolutely believe this statement by Efraim Halevy:

"Halevy said one of the reasons the Palestinians may be putting off reaching a peace deal and setting up a state in the West Bank and Gaza is because they hope that waiting will actually work to their advantage.

Experts forecast Palestinians and Israeli Arabs will outnumber Jews in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza over the next few decades. Then Palestinians could agitate for the vote in hopes of taking control of the whole area.

Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat "has said very often that the future of the conflict will be decided in the womb of the Palestinian mother," Halevy said. There are Palestinians who believe "one should drag your feet... and bide time until these processes reach fruition."

"I think that is the strategy which causes the continued support for terrorist attacks," Halevy said."


http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/spages/380137.html

[Noam]

More.
New York Daily News - http://www.nydailynews.com
Sunday, December 7th, 2003
Arafat's weapon is another delusion


I had lunch the other day with a frightened friend. He loves Israel, and he's scared to death of Palestinian babies. "Just look at the birthrate," he said. "If the Palestinians walk away from a two-state solution, they'll be a majority from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean. And that's the end of Israel as a Jewish democracy."
This fear is as old as Zionism. It is also the latest Palestinian scare tactic. Cave in to our terms, they say, or we will all demand Israeli citizenship and, by force of numbers, turn Israel into South Africa.

Yasser Arafat sometimes talks about this strategy. He calls it "the weapon of the womb." Like most of his strategies, it is sheer fantasy.

The womb-bomb theory presupposes that Israelis will be willing to give up their state. The Jews will give the Palestinians citizenship, see they are outnumbered, sadly shake their heads and go back to Poland.

This is, to put it mildly, delusional. If the two-state solution fails, there are at least four other more likely outcomes. All have precedents in recent Arab-Israeli history. None will make the Palestinians very happy.


Scenario One: Palestinians Go East. This is what happened in 1948. The Palestinians rejected a two-state compromise and gambled that war would wipe out Israel. Instead, hundreds of thousands wound up homeless.
Many Palestinians today suspect this is the design of Ariel Sharon's government. They are wrong. Most Israelis, including most Israelis who voted for Sharon's coalition, would never stand for it. Unless, that is, they are forced to choose between all-out war and national extinction.


Scenario Two: Palestinians Get Gerrymandered. New Yorkers know how this works. Two senators from the Empire State, two from South Dakota, population 761,063; congressional districts drawn to predetermine the results; the presidency won not by popular vote, but in an Electoral College intentionally weighted toward certain states.
Right now, Israel has a one-person, one-vote parliamentary system. But who's to say the American model isn't better? Using it as a guide, Israeli lawmakers can easily devise a representative democracy that guarantees Palestinian candidates get Al Gored every time.


Scenario Three: Palestinians Get New Neighbors. The Jewish population of Israel has grown nearly tenfold in the past 50 years, mostly through immigration. Jews are automatically entitled to citizenship, and the Israeli government determines who qualifies. In the 1990s, it took in a million immigrants from the former USSR and Ethiopia. Some were kosher in the religious sense, others not so much.
There are at this moment millions of people in northeast India and southern Africa who regard themselves as members of lost Jewish tribes. The minute the Israeli government agrees, they will migrate in vast numbers. Are they really Jews? Who cares? In Israel, anyone who isn't an Arab is a Jew. Put 3 million or 4 million of these immigrants into the West Bank, and you have a whole new demographic equation.


Scenario Four: The Palestinians Get Fenced. Israel is building a barrier through the West Bank. Soon it will become the temporary border between the Jewish state and whatever is left on the other side. And in the Middle East, nothing is more permanent than the temporary.
No, the womb-bomb isn't going to work. Israelis aren't that dumb or that irresolute. Either the Palestinians will get independence by meeting the terms of the American road map - renouncing terrorism, creating democratic institutions and giving up the so-called right of return - or they will wind up, as they always do, the victims of their own empty threats and wishful thinking.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ideas_opinions/v-pfriendly/story/143391p-126959c.html

[Communication]

The last article makes a damn good point, although I'll tailor it a bit to exclude the territories. Israel proper will never be another Muslim country if Israel doesn't want it to be. Even if no other Jew makes aliyah and Israeli Muslims double the number of children they have, Israel still controls its own immigration laws. As long as Arab/Islamic nationalism threatens Jews in the ME, I say bring in the Christians, Zoroastrians, Buddhists, Hindus and Pagans, IF and when the threat of substantial demographic shifts occur.

[L@mplighterM]

I wonder if making dual citizenship available to every Jew in the world (with a full vote in all elections) would be a feasible solution. I think that it certainly would fit the spirit that led to the creation of the State of Israel. The exact wording that led to the creation of the state escapes me at the moment but I don’t think the same revised law has to apply to Israeli Arabs.

[Communication]

Originally posted by L@mplighterM
I wonder if making dual citizenship available to every Jew in the world (with a full vote in all elections) would be a feasible solution. I think that it certainly would fit the spirit that led to the creation of the State of Israel. The exact wording that led to the creation of the state escapes me at the moment but I don’t think the same revised law has to apply to Israeli Arabs.

Twenty years ago and I would say it was a good idea, but not now. Unless you actually live in Israel, you have no appreciation for what it's like. I think Jews should visit more often and develop stronger bonds with the people there, but as it is now, almost half the Jewish vote in the diaspora under the age of 40 would be going to people like Yossi Belin if not the Arab Knesset members.

[L@mplighterM]

Oh well! Back to the drawing board! Just a thought!

[Mr. Pumps]

:mad: Time should never be on Islam's side. Period.

In all honesty and fact the Arabs have the money and revenue to excel in the global economy, in science, in technology, in economics........... too bad the religion of the area is pure Militaristic . Where is the religious stability here people. Other religions have adjusted over time, but this religion is about as new minded as a model T ford. and as rustic too.

Islam itself is keeping the Arabs way back and as long as it remains in place they will remain forver in the dark. A Bad religion to have ain such a increasing advancing world and all countries are and developing progressively except them. Go figure......a Medieval religion that cannot be altered and has not been altered deserves no place in the world ....it is a outcast if not changed....totally wrong thinking....wrong feudal practices for the most complicated century ever. Period.

[Noam]

Originally posted by Mr. Pumps
:mad: Time should never be on Islam's side. Period.

In all honesty and fact the Arabs have the money and revenue to excel in the global economy, in science, in technology, in economics........... too bad the religion of the area is pure Militaristic . Where is the religious stability here people. Other religions have adjusted over time, but this religion is about as new minded as a model T ford. and as rustic too.

Islam itself is keeping the Arabs way back and as long as it remains in place they will remain forver in the dark. A Bad religion to have ain such a increasing advancing world and all countries are and developing progressively except them. Go figure......a Medieval religion that cannot be altered and has not been altered deserves no place in the world ....it is a outcast if not changed....totally wrong thinking....wrong feudal practices for the most complicated century ever. Period.

Islam NEEDS a Charismatic leader. Right now it is very comfortable for the RULLING HUNTAS (Religious monsters, Dictators, Terrorist leaders....) to continue, because they have money, power, lots of zombies to die for them and heavenly sex....

The money is being slowly but surely STOPPED. US IRS and other institutions are the BEST to stop that. BUT IT TAKES TIME.

Look how Kadaffi paid 3 billion to get out of that ring
Look How Arafat is now considered a whore, even by Palestinians for stealing their money. Look at Abu Ala fighting with Arafat on what??? on Tranparency of paychecks for his Tanzim.

It's the money trail that eventually gets the worst criminals....

The path is CLEar. Once Swiss banks are FORCED to divulge their holdings.... it will be over for FANATIC ISLAM....

Saddam made a furtune by betting on the EURO. Kuwait Portfolio made them more money they lost in OIL revenues during the first Gulf war..... unless the money gets stopped--Fanatic Islam will continue.....

But once the train starts... I doubt it will stop. I give it 10-20 years.

[Oh Jerusalem]

Well, if we're talking about the weekly magazine, TIME has always been on the Arab side. :D

[Noam]

Originally posted by Oh Jerusalem
Well, if we're talking about the weekly magazine, TIME has always been on the Arab side. :D
Yup.
TIME= Trouble In Middle East.


Islam is a natural enemy of modernity - it has never undergone a separation from the political elements of societies in which it flourishes// the conquest theme is a popular excuse in the explanation of the retarded nature of the political and cultural aspects of Islamic societies -- western imperialism in islamic countries held back their development - a culture of victims // to the extent ANY political entity wishes to hold onto islamic "values" it is a natural enemy, immune to democracy and much more of a political enemy than communism or fascism - it is authoritarian in the worst possible way

[David_in_NYC]

Originally posted by Communication
Unless you actually live in Israel, you have no appreciation for what it's like.

Living in New York City, surviving the 1993 bombing of the WTC, enduring 9/11... I'd say I have some appreciation for what it's like. (Which is, of course, why I know that the only route to peace is through decisive war.)

[Oh Jerusalem]

Originally posted by David_in_NYC
Living in New York City, surviving the 1993 bombing of the WTC, enduring 9/11... I'd say I have some appreciation for what it's like. (Which is, of course, why I know that the only route to peace is through decisive war.)
Trust me, it's not the same thing.

I'm not saying what's worse but the effect on people who have this happening day in and day out, versus once a decade, is quite a difference.

[SteveMetch]

Originally posted by Noam
Islam NEEDS a Charismatic leader.

This statement is like saying the Nazism or Communism only needs a charismatic leader in order to be a force for Good.

Islam is the religion of the devil as understood by any Christian who actually reads the New Testament. I know this is not politically correct but the truth seldom is.

1 John 4:1-3
Dear friends, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits to see whether they are from God, because many false prophets have gone out into the world. This is how you can recognize the Spirit of God: Every spirit that acknowledges that Jesus Christ has come in the flesh is from God, but every spirit that does not acknowledge Jesus is not from God. This is the spirit of the antichrist, which you have heard is coming and even now is already in the world.

Islam consistently, and based on the Koran from “God” himself through the Angel Gabrielle?, has denied the death and resurrection of Jesus.

004.157
YUSUFALI: That they said (in boast), "We killed Christ Jesus the son of Mary, the Messenger of Allah";- but they killed him not, nor crucified him, but so it was made to appear to them, and those who differ therein are full of doubts, with no (certain) knowledge, but only conjecture to follow, for of a surety they killed him not:-
PICKTHAL: And because of their saying: We slew the Messiah, Jesus son of Mary, Allah's messenger - they slew him not nor crucified him, but it appeared so unto them; and lo! those who disagree concerning it are in doubt thereof; they have no knowledge thereof save pursuit of a conjecture; they slew him not for certain.
SHAKIR: And their saying: Surely we have killed the Messiah, Isa son of Marium, the messenger of Allah; and they did not kill him nor did they crucify him, but it appeared to them so (like Isa) and most surely those who differ therein are only in a doubt about it; they have no knowledge respecting it, but only follow a conjecture, and they killed him not for sure.

2 Corinthians 11:4,13-15
If someone comes to you and preaches a Jesus other than the Jesus we preached, or if you receive a different spirit from the one you received, or a different gospel from the one you accepted, you put up with it easily enough…For such men are false apostles, deceitful workmen, masquerading as apostles of Christ. And no wonder, for Satan himself masquerades as an angel of light. It is not surprising, then, if his servants masquerade as servants of righteousness. Their end will be what their actions deserve.


If Satan is at work in this world, Islam would be the perfect religion to accomplish his ends. It denies basic human equality and the image of God is one of a Master and we are his slaves vs. the Father/Son relationship in Christianity. There is no concept of good and evil in Islam separate from adhering to Allah’s will. In fact in Sunni Islam God brings both Good and Evil into the world, “it is written”. This is why a Christian and a Muslim will have a complete different world view. To the Christian evil cannot be assigned to God because it is contrary to his essence. The God of Islam is based on pure will, has no essence, and as such the murder of 3,000 people on 9/11 was God’s will because it happened. Allah will not let anything happen that he hasn’t ordained. This is why Islam is so easy to “hijack” and manipulate towards “evil” actions. Its fundamental metaphysical foundation is flawed. Christians view the hijackers as people exercising God’s gift of free will to perform evil actions.

[Oh Jerusalem]

Of course, based on what you say about Islam, you've also established that Judaism is the religion of the devil.

We don't believe in Jesus.

We also deny the resurrection of Jesus. Assuming he existed, he's dead - that's for sure.

[SteveMetch]

Originally posted by Oh Jerusalem
Of course, based on what you say about Islam, you've also established that Judaism is the religion of the devil.

We don't believe in Jesus.

We also deny the resurrection of Jesus. Assuming he existed, he's dead - that's for sure.

No.

The main difference between Judaism and Islam is that Islam seeks to alter the New Testament. Judaism doesn’t acknowledge it in the first place. If Islam had just started over it would have been okay just like Buddhism. It instead purports to stand on the teachings of Jesus yet then goes on to destroy and deny almost everything the New Testament teaches. This is a false prophet by definition.

Christians Relationships to Islam
Excerpt Crossing the Threshold of Hope, Pope John Paul

“Whoever knows the Old and New Testaments, and then reads the Koran, clearly sees the process by which it completely reduces Divine Revelation. It is impossible not to note the movement away from what God said about Himself, first in the Old Testament through the Prophets, and then finally in the New Testament through His Son. In Islam all the richness of God's self-revelation, which constitutes the heritage of the Old and New Testaments, has definitely been set aside.

Some of the most beautiful names in the human language are given to the God of the Koran, but He is ultimately a God outside of the world, a God who is only Majesty, never Emmanuel, God-with-us. Islam is not a religion of redemption. There is no room for the Cross and the Resurrection. Jesus is mentioned, but only as a prophet who prepares for the last prophet, Muhammad. There is also mention of Mary, His Virgin Mother, but the tragedy of redemption is completely absent. For this reason not only the theology but also the anthropology of Islam is very distant from Christianity.”

Christianity accepts as is the Jewish bible. The division between Judaism and Christianity arises from the question of who Jesus is/was. An understanding of Christian theology would be impossible without the Judaism. As such there is no way a Christian could view Judaism as satanic.

Christians Relationships with Judaism
Excerpt Crossing the Threshold of Hope, Pope John Paul

“The Church of Christ, in fact, recognizes that according to the divine mystery of salvation the origins of the Church's faith and election are already found in the Patriarchs, Moses, and the Prophets. . . . The Church, then, can forget neither that it received the revelation of the Old Testament through that people with whom God, in his ineffable mercy, made the Ancient Covenant, nor can the Church forget that it draws sustenance from the root of that good olive tree onto which have been grafted the wild shoots, the Gentiles. Therefore, since the spiritual patrimony common to Christians and Jews is so great, this Sacred Council recommends and promotes a mutual understanding and respect, which can be obtained above all through biblical study and fraternal discussion" (Nostra Aetate 4).”

[Jorge]

I think that Noam has done us all a good service by opening this Thread. The question of whether the mere passage of time will favor Palestinians or Israelis in the conflict is of paramount importance. When I say paramount I mean that it is far more decisive than the issue of terrorism, or the route of the separation wall, the vagaries of Mr. Arafat or the vagaries of Mr. Sharon and others of the kind that predominate in daily debates. In fact one could even say that all those issues should be examined using the time question as a criteria for judging whether proposed policies are wise or unwise.

Since the answer of the question proposed by Noam will be known with certainty only in 10 or 15 years time, in the meantime everyone is free to put forward opinions for the YES or the NO; the only aspect in which there is near universal consensus is about he importance of the time factor; I say near consensus because there are still some simple minds that view the conflict as an stalemate, frozen in time. For the rest, the conflict is a process i.e., a situation whose characteristics continuously change with the passage of time.

Within the context of the time question the most important issue appears to be demographic one. I’m not by any means an expert in the subject but the way I understand it is like this: on the basis of present birth and mortality rates for both Jewish and Arabs(*) demographers can extrapolate the functions and predict this or that data for the future. Demographers, being scientists, don’t dare to say: in 2020 there will be a 60% of Arabs and 40% of Jews(bet. the Jordan and the sea); they only say that IF the present rates remain unchanged (or rather change as predicted) in 2020 the said proportions will be 60% and 40%.

The conditional IF is important because they are not saying that it is going to be like that but rather that a.o.t.b.e. (all other things being equal) the situation will be as predicted. Here enter the ones that believe that time is on the Jewish side and start proposing ways in which the IF may be changed to IF NOT. An example of such a pattern of thinking is the nydailynews article quoted by Noam in his post# 5. I intend to discuss the Scenarios of this article in following posts.

(*) N.B. I'm using Arabs instead of Palestinians and Jewish instead of Israelis because of the eventuality of a bi-national state after 2010.

[Mediocrates]

Then you've answered your own question and it doesn't matter whether anyone cares about peace or not. Eventually it will simply be Arabic by numbers, it will have the same population pyramid as every other dirt poor regional country, no one will have a job or an education or enough to eat and we can all go home and say we did our tear-jerkingist best to appreciate the poor oppressed brown people.

[MGB8]

Jorge ignores the reality of what is happening right now.

Israel will relinquish control over large portions of the WB and Gaza which contain over 99% of the Pal-Arab population. It may in fact renounce claim to current Arab villages in Israel, and join them to the renounced WB and Gazan land.

After that, Israel will simply say - your future is your own. You can confederate with Jordan or Egypt, or declare your own state, or do whatever you want. Just know that violence will be met in kind.

Sharon's disengagment plan is about ending the demographic problem. Other ways to end it, like having the Pals take Jordanian citizenship, now seem unworkable because Israel gave up so much at Oslo, that it would be a too great a concession on the part of the Arabs for them to ever go for it. While there was once a chance for a great experiment in "joint ownership" - that time is over, and segregation is now the only way.

The other option is transfer, which, if the Arabs greatly escalate their attacks on Israel, they may just succeed in causing.

[Jorge]

From MGB8 post #21:

Jorge ignores the reality of what is happening right now.

Israel will relinquish control over large portions of the WB and Gaza which contain over 99% of the Pal-Arab population. It may in fact renounce claim to current Arab villages in Israel, and join them to the renounced WB and Gazan land.

After that, Israel will simply say - your future is your own. You can confederate with Jordan or Egypt, or declare your own state, or do whatever you want. Just know that violence will be met in kind.

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "happening right now". The way I see it "right now" the present government is clinging to the territories as if we had all the time we want to play with.

In any case, I'm glad to read that you think that "Israel will relinquish control over large portions of the WB and Gaza".
Of course if that comes true no need to worry about the demographics.

[Oh Jerusalem]

Originally posted by Jorge
In any case, I'm glad to read that you think that "Israel will relinquish control over large portions of the WB and Gaza".
Of course if that comes true no need to worry about the demographics.
That's right. Your only worry will be the next phase of the Arab war to eradicate the Jews from the Middle East. Enjoy!

[Jorge]

...Continued from my post # 19

The article from New York Daily News quoted by Noam, deals with ingenious ways of circumvent the demographic issue, called by the name the “womb-bomb theory” quote:

The womb-bomb theory presupposes that Israelis will be willing to give up their state. The Jews will give the Palestinians citizenship, see they are outnumbered, sadly shake their heads and go back to Poland.

This is, to put it mildly, delusional. If the two-state solution fails, there are at least four other more likely outcomes. All have precedents in recent Arab-Israeli history. None will make the Palestinians very happy .

Well they won’t make the Palestinians very happy, that’s for sure. Problem is they won’t make Israelis much happier either. I intend to comment briefly on the four “likely outcomes” or scenarios devised by the article’s author, going from lightest to heaviest:

[COLOR=blue]Scenario Four: The Palestinians Get Fenced . Israel is building a barrier through the West Bank. Soon it will become the temporary border between the Jewish state and whatever is left on the other side.[/COLOR

In other words a two-state solution. In which case obviously, there’s no demographic issue. as the Israeli Left has been saying all along. However he says in the Introduction quoted above “if the two-state solution fails”. Why then to put it in the list? May be he ran out of ideas.

Scenario Two: Palestinians Get Gerrymandered . New Yorkers know how this works. Two senators from the Empire State, two from South Dakota, population 761,063; congressional districts drawn to predetermine the results; the presidency won not by popular vote, but in an Electoral College intentionally weighted toward certain states.
Right now, Israel has a one-person, one-vote parliamentary system. But who's to say the American model isn't better? Using it as a guide, Israeli lawmakers can easily devise a representative democracy that guarantees Palestinian candidates get Al Gored every time.

Since, at least in the beginning, Jews will have absolute control of the bi-national state, no problem whatsoever in passing a law granting Palestinians citizenship (they won’t be called Palestinians anymore but say,Arabs). The law will state that, as befits a democratic state , they’ll have the right to vote and be elected; it will state in addition that each vote of theirs will be worth a quarter of a vote (a quarter or a fifth depending on the demographic situation). I must say it’s quite an original idea; first time I hear about it.

Well, as he says in the above quote, this “won’t make the Palestinians very happy”. They will protest and raise hell. To no avail, because the Knesset could pass another law stating that incitement against a Law is a crime punishable by prison. So we put all the protesters in detention camps; in such camps of course, women are separated from men. Ten years of keeping say, a third of the Arab population thus segregated and the demographic threat will vanish. Neat!

Just one snag though. How are we going to justify this new principle of “one peron= ¼ of a vote” in front of the international community? The idea is bound to raise eyebrows all around the world, including our staunchest ally, the USA (with the exception perhaps of the South Dakotans). Are we going to say that Jews being superior deserve one vote each, while Arabs being inferior… Or that we got the idea from Plato’s Republic and if Plato thought it, then it must be ethically right? I’m sure our PR people will think of something brainy that, as usual, will convince only our sworn supporters. The bottom line however is that no country can afford to be emarginated from the community of nations for long. The latest to try this gambit were the whites in South Africa; didn’t work for them; highly unlikely that it will work for us.

[Jorge]

Continued from my post # 24:

Scenario Number three by the ingenious author of the dailynews article:

Scenario Three: Palestinians Get New Neighbors . The Jewish population of Israel has grown nearly tenfold in the past 50 years, mostly through immigration. Jews are automatically entitled to citizenship, and the Israeli government determines who qualifies. In the 1990s, it took in a million immigrants from the former USSR and Ethiopia. Some were kosher in the religious sense, others not so much.
There are at this moment millions of people in northeast India and southern Africa who regard themselves as members of lost Jewish tribes. The minute the Israeli government agrees, they will migrate in vast numbers. Are they really Jews? Who cares? In Israel, anyone who isn't an Arab is a Jew. Put 3 million or 4 million of these immigrants into the West Bank, and you have a whole new demographic equation.

I must confess that I’ve never set my eyes on an issue of the New York Daily News; may be it’s a satirical paper and the author was just trying to be funny? If that’s the case was also Communication trying to pull a joke when he wrote in his post#6 the following?:

Even if no other Jew makes aliyah and Israeli Muslims double the number of children they have, Israel still controls its own immigration laws. As long as Arab/Islamic nationalism threatens Jews in the ME, I say bring in the Christians, Zoroastrians, Buddhists, Hindus and Pagans, IF and when the threat of substantial demographic shifts occur .

Perhaps, to follow the comic line, we should modify our message to the Diaspora Jews to something like – Don’t send us money! Send us a Christian! or – Israel needs your sacrifice! Send us your maid! --

Seriously now. The article’s author says, to sum up:” Put 3 million or 4 million of these immigrants into the West Bank, and you have a whole new demographic equation.” Indeed we will have a new equation, no doubt about it. Another small snag though: How is Israel going to feed, clothe and house those 3 millions? Because it just so happens that there are no jobs in the WB, so those three million will have to be maintained by the government. Neither is there work in Israel proper, which right now counts hundreds of thousand of unemployed with thousands being added each month. There’s no surplus of money either; the Treasury is nearly bankrupt and has to apply additional cuts in education, health and welfare, every three months or so.

Turning away from these profane financing issues to a bit of ideology: Anyone heard about something that used to be called the Zionist Dream? I’m asking because I suspect it may been swallowed by another Dream; the dream of the One and Only State, the dream of Greater Israel.

To be continued...

[Jorge]

Another article quoted by Noam regarding the time issue is written by Prof. E. Inbar (Noam post #1). This a far more serious article than the one from NY dailynews discussed earlier; I intend to add only a few comments.

Among other things Prof. Inbar writes:

It does not matter how many Palestinian babies are born in Gaza, Nablus or Jenin if Israel has no plans to annex these areas and is determined to stop the influx of Arabs into its own territory. Israel's Jewish majority is hardly affected by the number of Arabs beyond Israel's border.

Since 1993, the Israeli political system has clearly moved in favor of partition of the Land of Israel. Even most of the Likud leadership is reconciled to the idea of partition, excluding the option of Israeli permanent rule over the Palestinian population centers.

Exactly! If Israel abandons any intentions to annex those areas and the Israeli political system approves the partition of the Land, then the demographic issue ceases to be a problem. This has been the argument of the Israeli Left all along;
that is, that Time is on our side only as long as we don’t prolong the occupation and if, through some sort of agreement, a Palestinian State is established.

However, Prof. Inbar appears to contradict himself when he adds:

Unless Egypt or Jordan takes responsibility over Palestinian territories in the near future, Israel must learn to live with a fluctuating Israeli military presence there due to security considerations. Demography is irrelevant to the need to protect Israel.

Egypt and Jordan, as we all know, have no inclination whatsoever to take responsibility over the territories. That leaves as an option a “fluctuating Israeli military presence” in the WB and GS, that is, in simpler words, to continue the occupation for an unlimited time. This in turn means that by 2012 (when the Arab population could reach 55% of the total) we will be ruling an area where Jews will be a minority and it will only get worse from then on.

Prof. Inbar further says:

Therefore, unless used wisely to change the social mores and the demographic trends, an unlikely scenario, time will weaken any Palestinian entity.

The “Palestinian entity” is weak enough right now. The whole place is in shambles without a viable economy, on the brink of anarchy and social organization vanishing fast. Continuing the present situation will weaken it even more, no doubt about it. Question is: What is in the best interest of Israel? A regression of their society to a situation of misery and anarchy or an stable society, steadily improving its economical and social levels? Mediocrates has repeatedly stated the point, to which I agree, that peace and stability go hand in hand. If the passage of time results in a further weakening of a “Palestinian entity” then time is not on our side.

To be continued…

[Jorge]

Within the context of the time issue discussed in this Thread it may be useful to consider the main three options that appear to emerge. These are:

1) To re-start negotiations between Israel and the PA in the immediate future. The framework for the negotiations may be the Road Map or similar initiatives.
2) To postpone the re-start of negotiations in the hope that, at some stage in the future, a more satisfactory agreement may be obtained.
3) To discard the idea of a negotiated solution altogether and to aim for the establishment of a bi-national state.

These three options are open to both Israelis and Palestinians and the question – Is time in our side ?--is a crucial one to be answered by both parties of the conflict.

Option 1) is favored by those of both parties that believe that time is not on their side . They include supporters of the Road Map(with a fixed time table), the Geneva Accords or the Ayalon-Nusseibeh document. Their rationale appears to be that, since the main points of a settlement are already concluded, better start implementing now than prolong an armed confrontation who’s leading nowhere. They oppose postponement of negotiations because they consider that the passage of time only strengthens the possibility of a bi-national state as an alternative.

Option 2) is the one favored in Israel for a number of reasons. Although supporters of this option reckon also that the main points of the settlement are already concluded, they believe that Israel may be able to obtain more favorable conditions at some point in the future. That is that time is on our side . For some it is the idea that terrorism may be eradicated through military actions and that the IDF should be given time to conclude this task. For others is the idea that with passage of time the Palestinian side will be weakened even further; these arguments are presented in Prof. Inbar’s article discussed before. For others it is the hope that, at some point in the future, a new Palestinian leadership, more favorable disposed towards Israel, may emerge.

In the Israeli side supporters of this option are grouped around the “centrist” parties, Likud, Shinui, parts of the Labor party, of the NRP and Shass.

The number of supporters of this option are further engrossed but those who openly or covertly favor Option 3). Thus, whenever a new agreement initiative is set on the table, they join ranks with the ones whose opinions are those discussed above and give wide public support to a government which is only too eager to reject any agreement initiative.

A somewhat similar phenomenon appears in the Palestinian side; that is, the ones that openly or covertly favor a bi-national state, rally round to support postponement of negotiations to a later point in time.

We arrive finally to Option 3) a bi-national state which in our terminology is referred to as “Greater Israel” (a One and Only State ruled by Jews) and in theirs as a “democratic secular state” (a One and Only State ruled by Palestinians). Conditions are not ripe just now for Option 3) so supporters of a bi-national state of both parties believe that time is in our side and that,with the passage of time and diplomatic inaction, this will be the only possible alternative left.

This post is getting a bit too long so I’ll leave comments on Option 3) for later on.

[Oh Jerusalem]

Originally posted by Jorge
Within the context of the time issue discussed in this Thread it may be useful to consider the main three options that appear to emerge. These are:

1) To re-start negotiations between Israel and the PA in the immediate future. The framework for the negotiations may be the Road Map or similar initiatives.
2) To postpone the re-start of negotiations in the hope that, at some stage in the future, a more satisfactory agreement may be obtained.
3) To discard the idea of a negotiated solution altogether and to aim for the establishment of a bi-national state.
4) To defeat the enemy before he succeeds in destroying you.

[Jorge]

Continued from my post # 27:

Re. Option 3): a bi-national state. This possibility looms dark in the horizon. A few years ago very few thought of it seriously, nowadays the specter of such a situation seems to acquire more tangible appearance.

Because of the disparity in military power favoring Israel, Option 3) cannot be pursued by the Palestinians; rather, those of them that favor it, hope that the idea of Greater Israel will prevail. If this were to happen, the demographic issue, discussed before, would later on turn the balance of power in their favor. High in the agenda of terrorist organizations is the aim of sabotaging any sort of negotiations between Israel and the PA;
in accomplishing this aim they have succeeded admirably so far.


In the Israeli side the visionaries of Greater Israel are busily pursuing their tactics: expanding existing settlements and establishing new ones; for security reasons each settlement requires new roads for Israelis only and additional surrounding areas out of bounds for Palestinians. This is called “creating facts on the ground”, designed to make increasingly difficult and complex the eventual enterprise of dismantling them and, by default, leaving less and less territory available for a viable Palestinian State. At some future date, so they hope, a return to 1967 borders will be a task too formidable for any Israeli government to undertake and the option of a two-state solution will have to be discarded. As they are fond of declaring: Time is in our side; with enough strength and perseverance Final Victory will be ours.

This enterprise is pursued with the active support of several governmental sectors; a number of key ministerial portfolios are held by parties that openly approve this tactics and strategy and which are able to pledge state resources to the task. In the Likud Party itself, influential factions, like the one led by Mr. Feiglin, ensure that the rest of the party and their government officials provides at least tacit support.

While time goes on without any agreement initiative being actively pursued, supporters of a bi-national state are busy at work. Each additional bloody terrorist attack persuades more Israelis to oppose or postpone negotiations. Each additional new settlement persuades more Palestinians that Israel has no intentions of ever conducting negotiations.

In an attempt to sum up these comments about the Time Question one conclusion appears inescapable: as time goes on without serious attempts to resolve the conflict, the prospects of a bi-national state are favored. In the medium term future this will mean Victory for the Greater Israel cohorts in the long range future it will mean Victory for the fundamentalist cohorts in the Arab side.

[MGB8]

Jorge,

A Bi-national state is not a realistic threat on the Arab side, and they know it. Israel will simply say "no", draw lines, and say "we renounce claim to these lands where your population is...deal with it."

That's essentially the path that we are on right now.

You still ignore the fact that the PA has indicated, through their statements in Arabic and their symbols, media, schoolbooks, preachers, etc., that they have ZERO interest in co-existing with Israel. This is not just Arafat, but also guys like Dahlan and Barghouti.

They believe that the WB and Gaza are not enough for a tenable Arab state, they insist on the return of Pal Arab "refugees", which is the same as insisting on Israeli national suicide. They refuse to take into account Israeli security concerns.

The PA, PLO, Fatah (including al-aqsa martyrs) is only different from Hamas in that it is less fundamentalist (although still very much an Islamist movement - look at how they use Islam, Al-aqsa, their Mosques - etc....) and that they LIE about their aims, while Hamas is straightforward. In many ways I prefer Hamas.

What the Pal-Arabs need to do is have an internal reckoning where they decide which is better for them - having a war with Israel or a war with those who will not give up the goal of destroying Israel.

If they are unwilling to do the latter - even if we got an "moderate" type government that didn't actually fund and commit terror, but simply refused to stop and disarm terrorists - then THERE WOULD BE NO PEACE.

We'd be giving up Land for NO PEACE. Do you understand this.

Sharon would have us give up less land, too, also for no peace....but with no delusions of having peace, and with lines that protect Israels security concerns.

But you don't really seem to care about military security concerns - you buy the myth of Israeli military invincibility, or you simply want Israel to not be in a strong position to deal with terror threats from the Pal-Arabs as well as possible future military threats from their not so stable neighbors.

[Oh Jerusalem]

Originally posted by MGB8
We'd be giving up Land for NO PEACE. Do you understand this.
Obviously, he's loving it.