PDA

View Full Version : Dissecting the Disengagement Defeat


NewsGuy
05-04-2004, 03:44 PM
An IsraelForum.com original article. Please feel free to post this article on other forums and sites, with a link back to www.IsraelForum.com


Dissecting the Disengagement Defeat
May 4, 2004
By Michael Rand

(IsraelForum.com) -- Thousands of Likud voters recently opposed Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s plan for an Israeli "disengagement" from the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and Samaria. The crux of the plan was that in the absence of a non-terrorist Palestinian partner with whom to negotiate a peace deal, Israel would act unilaterally to break the cycle of violence. Sharon proposed that Israel would withdraw Israeli troops and citizens from the Gaza Strip in the hopes of moving closer to peace.

Understandably, the forcible uprooting and transfer of a long-established Jewish community is a notion that drew fierce opposition not only from those citizens who were to be personally affected, but also from the wider Israeli population of Likud voters. Recognizing the controversy, Prime Minister Sharon brought the issue to vote in a Likud party referendum, in which his proposal was soundly defeated.

The rejection of Sharon’s plan showed a wide margin of disapproval from Sharon’s own political party, and indicated a deep disapproval among Israelis, in general, concerning the prime minister’s proposed strategy of dealing with the Palestinians.

What Went Wrong?

Sharon’s disengagement plan was originally rejected by the whole world. The Europeans opposed the Israeli withdrawal, because it did not require a European stamp of approval, and it did not result in lucrative infrastructure deals and billion-dollar bribes for the Europeans, as they have grown accustomed to in places like Iraq.

The Arabs rejected Sharon’s plan, because it would ease some of the conflict in the region, which is contrary to the interests of the Arab dictatorships who regularly use the Israeli-Arab conflict to deflect their own citizens’ anger.

The Palestinians opposed the Israeli concession not wishing to impede their long-time Jihad against Israel. And, the less land to dispute, the less convenient it becomes to slaughter innocent Israelis, in accordance with the true Palestinian national dream.

The Palestinians were also reluctant to approve Israel’s withdrawal, because they feared that the concession in Gaza would become Israel’s last. As a response to that concern, Israel agreed to forcefully eject yet more Jewish families out of areas of Samaria, signaling that the Palestinians would ultimately receive more territory than just Gaza and most of the West Bank. Still, despite the mountain of Israeli concessions, the Palestinians were still not pleased, because they could not adjust to a situation that would call for a reduction in terrorist activity.

American Turnaround

The U.S. was also originally opposed to Sharon’s disengagement plan. The Bush administration feared that the Sharon plan would preempt the now sacred Bush "vision" for the Middle East and its accompanying road map for peace. But Sharon lobbied the White House, eventually enlisting the President’s strong support. In a now-famous speech during a recent visit by Sharon to Washington, George Bush declared:


"Israel plans to remove certain military installations and all settlements from Gaza, and certain military installations and settlements from the West Bank. These are historic and courageous actions. If all parties choose to embrace this moment they can open the door to progress and put an end to one of the world's longest running conflicts...
These steps can open the door to progress toward a peaceful, democratic, viable Palestinian state. Working together, we can help build democratic Palestinian institutions, as well as strong capabilities dedicated to fighting terror so that the Palestinian people can meet their obligations under the road map on the path to peace.

This opportunity holds great promise for the Palestinian people to build a modern economy that will lift millions out of poverty, create the institutions and habits of liberty, and renounce the terror and violence that impede their aspirations and take a terrible toll on innocent life.

The Palestinian people must insist on change and on a leadership that is committed to reform and progress and peace."

With only about a week to go until the Likud’s referendum, Bush’s outspoken support was thought by analysts to give Sharon’s plan a major boost among Israeli voters. But, in fact, the Israeli voter was not as impressed with Bush’s speech as Sharon hoped.

Israeli Opposition

The Likud loyalists and much of the rest of Israel originally voted for Sharon as Prime Minister on the basis of Sharon’s plan to crack down on Palestinian terrorism, not to reward that terrorism with gifts of land that was developed with generations of Israeli blood, sweat and tears.

And, even among those who were willing to give up the Jewish Gaza settlements, many opposed the idea of doing so without a tangible return from the Palestinians. Indeed, the ongoing threats from Muslim terrorists and the slaughter of a pregnant Israeli woman and her four daughters on the morning of the vote drove home the realization that the Palestinians would never give up their dream of Jihad-genocide, even if appeased with land. That being the case, Israelis understood that moving out of Gaza would only bring the Palestinian terrorists and their missile assaults closer to the rest of Israel.

Sharon, from his part, learned that he needs to get clearance from his own political party and from the rest of the Israeli people first, before seeking clearance from abroad. Much to his credit, Sharon is a quick learner and has already announced that he will resubmit a modified version of his disengagement plan, which he hopes would receive more domestic support. Only then would it be time for Sharon to seek international backing.

* * *

What's your opinion?

Are the Likudniks who voted down the plan out of step with the rest of Israel?

Have you noticed that while Sharon advocated his plan, the Europeans blasted it, but the moment that Likud voted it down, all of a sudden Europe supports the plan?

Oh Jerusalem
05-05-2004, 01:24 AM
Originally posted by NewsGuy
What's your opinion?

Are the Likudniks who voted down the plan out of step with the rest of Israel?
Yes. That's because Israel, as a whole, is out of step with the realities that surround.

Have you noticed that while Sharon advocated his plan, the Europeans blasted it, but the moment that Likud voted it down, all of a sudden Europe supports the plan?
Yes. Have you noticed that it's best to ignore European self-righteous obnoxious hypocrates?

eyl
05-05-2004, 01:40 AM
What's your opinion?

Are the Likudniks who voted down the plan out of step with the rest of Israel?

I think you're wrong on this. There's rather wide support in the Israeli public for this (including myself, though it depends on some of the details); even in the Likud, the voter turnout was only 51%, which suggests to me a large degree of ambivilence inside the Likud.

Have you noticed that while Sharon advocated his plan, the Europeans blasted it, but the moment that Likud voted it down, all of a sudden Europe supports the plan?

The same with the Palestinians. who cares?

Oh Jerusalem
05-05-2004, 02:05 AM
Originally posted by eyl
I think you're wrong on this. There's rather wide support in the Israeli public for this (including myself, though it depends on some of the details); even in the Likud, the voter turnout was only 51%, which suggests to me a large degree of ambivilence inside the Likud.
Maybe I was misunderstood. I voted AGAINST the disengagement. Polls, though they've been proven wrong, show the overall population being for disengagement.

If 60% of the Likud members were too lethargic to move their asses and vote on this issue, this is also a symptom of how idealogically empty a large share of the Likud has become.

And a 60%-40% vote against the engagement is far from a landslide, when coming from the Likud.

Those 40% and who know what percent of those Likud members that didn't bother to vote, cast their ballot against the Likud's explicite charter, which opposes the disengagement in the first place.

So, when I said that Israel, as a whole, is out of step with the realities that surround it, I was referring to those who, like Sharon, naively believe that something good would come out of his disengagement plan "A".

Stay tuned for plan "B".
The same with the Palestinians.
Not true. The Pals were happy with the plan before it was voted on.

The poll question, below, was taken from a mid-March 2004 poll conducted by the Palestine Center for POLICY and SURVEY RESEARCH (PSR) (http://www.pcpsr.org/) in Ramallah.

The three percentage figures in each response represent TOTAL%, WEST BANK% and GAZA%.

08) Do you welcome or do not welcome Sharon's disengagement program which
proposes to evacuate most settlements from Gaza strip and a small number of
settlements in the West Bank?
1 Definitely welcome 29.2 21.5 42.0
2 welcome 43.7 46.0 40.0
3 do not welcome 18.5 22.7 11.6
4 Definitely do not welcome 7.4 8.4 5.7
5 DK/NA 1.2 1.5 0.8

So, as you can see, some 74% of the respondents already welcomed Sharon's proposal some 2-3 weeks before the voting took place this past Sunday.

Binyamin
05-05-2004, 02:06 AM
According to some reports, Sharon did nopt call a national plebiscite because he was expected to lose. (I do not know why he thought he would do better in the right-wing Likud.) It is hard to know what the Israeli public really wants without a vote, but there does not seem to be a clear majority supporting the disengagement.

A lot of politicians on the Left are saying that the vote shows that one-sided moves won't work, and we have to talk to the Palestinians. Do they really think that the Likud rejected the plan because Arafat didn't sign on it?

Sharon will now try do somehow "disengage" without taking down settlements. He can declare an end to talk until there are democratic institutions in the PA, a stable economy, some resettlement of refugees, etc. He should leave the ball in the Palestinians' court, and wait until they have something to offer us.

Oh Jerusalem
05-05-2004, 02:16 AM
Originally posted by Binyamin
He should leave the ball in the Palestinians' court, and wait until they have something to offer us.
The same old indecisiveness.

Binyamin
05-05-2004, 02:27 AM
Originally posted by Oh Jerusalem
The same old indecisiveness.

Its not indeciseveness. Its the next best option after going to war or kicking them all out. We should insist that they build a normal society before we talk to them, and as soon as they finish we can make peace. Assuming that they cannot fix up their government, then we stay the way things are, but without any distracting peace talks, and with less respect for the PA (until they start doing something.)

Not true. The Pals were happy with the plan before it was voted on.
Yes, but the official position was against the plan.
They were also very happy when it was defeated.

Oh Jerusalem
05-05-2004, 02:34 AM
Originally posted by Binyamin
Its not indeciseveness. Its the next best option after going to war or kicking them all out. We should insist that they build a normal society before we talk to them, and as soon as they finish we can make peace. Assuming that they cannot fix up their government, then we stay the way things are, but without any distracting peace talks, and with less respect for the PA (until they start doing something.)
That's what I call continued indecisiveness.

Will you be so happy if there are 2000 dead Israelis by 2008 because the current status quo is the "next best option"?
Yes, but the official position was against the plan.
They were also very happy when it was defeated.
Can you guess why the official PA position was against the disengagement plan when 3 out of every 4 Pals wanted it? I can.

eyl
05-05-2004, 02:58 AM
Originally posted by Oh Jerusalem
Maybe I was misunderstood. I voted AGAINST the disengagement. Polls, though they've been proven wrong, show the overall population being for disengagement.

I was repsonding to Newsguy.

Not true. The Pals were happy with the plan before it was voted on.

I was speaking of the official leadership.

Oh Jerusalem
05-05-2004, 03:11 AM
Originally posted by eyl
I was repsonding to Newsguy.
OK.
I was speaking of the official leadership.
OK. As I replied to Binyamin, what they said and what they meant were completely opposite each other.