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abu afak
05-05-2004, 05:07 PM
Growing fears Syria developing nuclear weapons

Maariv

Senior State Department officials believe Damascus was also one of Pakistani rogue nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan's clients.


There is growing concern in the Bush administration that Syria has been pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons development program, and may already have centrifuges that can purify uranium for use in bombs. However the intelligence reports on this specific issue are somewhat ambiguous, and it seems the US intelligence community is still somewhat divided on the issue.

Centrifuges are a vital component in any nuclear weapons development program, as they can be used to purify uranium for use as nuclear fuel or in weapons. Experts say getting weapons-grade material is the biggest hurdle for any country that desires the bomb.

Last week, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control John Bolton said Adbul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani scientist who sold nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea, had "several other" customers who may want the bomb. Western diplomats in Vienna said Bolton was clearly referring to Syria.

One atomic energy expert, who follows nuclear intelligence closely, said Bolton leads a faction in President George W. Bush's administration that believes they have strong evidence Syria is operating uranium-enrichment centrifuges.

But a U.S. official, who asked not to be named, warned the intelligence on Syria had not dispelled all doubts. "Those who are pushing the idea that Syria has centrifuges have been held back by other members of the inter-agency community who question the veracity of the claim," he said.

Several Western diplomats who follow the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), have been saying for months that Syria was a customer of Khan's.

"Syria certainly had contact with Khan," said a non-U.S. Western diplomat, adding that suspicions of Syrian research in atomic weapons have existed for decades.
Since Washington began its post-September 11 policy of aggressively pursuing countries it believed had weapons of mass destruction that could be used against the United States and its allies, it has repeatedly issued warnings about Syria. Recent reports issued by the CIA have highlighted growing concern over Syria.

But several sources said not everyone in the U.S. intelligence community and government is certain Syria has operating centrifuges. Likewise, one of the sources said not even Syria's arch-foe Israel is convinced.


Damascus denies allegations

Syria, which has publicly called for a Middle East free of nuclear weapons, dismissed the accusations as “baseless fabrications”, saying it was “disinformation orchestrated by the Bush administration”.

But diplomats and arms experts said revelations about Khan's nuclear black market showed a means existed for Syria to get hold of equipment it needed to enrich uranium without decades of research that would have been needed to develop it on its own.

On the other hand, one arms expert said even with enrichment devices Syria could not be close to having a nuclear weapon.

Pakistan could hold the key to resolving the debate about any Syrian nuclear capabilities. Khan, the man credited with building up Pakistan's successful nuclear weapons program, has been cooperating with Pakistani authorities after admitting that he leaked nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea.

Diplomats and non-proliferation experts agreed that if Syria does in fact have centrifuges, they had to come from Khan and the Pakistani authorities would be able to resolve the issue. But Islamabad may refuse to cooperate, as in the case of Iran.

http://www.maarivintl.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=article&articleID=6958

Mediocrates
05-07-2004, 06:17 AM
From The Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East

Anthony H. Cordesman
Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
March 15, 2004

Page 57-58, on Syria

Nuclear Weapons

- Ongoing low-level research effort seems likely.

- No evidence of major progress in development effort.

- Announced nuclear reactor purchase plans including 10 megawatt research reactor from Argentina. Discussions with Argentina were resumed in the mid-1990s, but plans to build a Syrian reactor were scrapped under US pressure.

- Syria tried to obtain six power reactors (for a total of 6000 megawatts of generating capacity) in 1980s from a number of countries, including the Soviet Union, Belgium and Switzerland, but plans were never implemented.

- The Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies quotes a Jane’s Intelligence Review article from 1993 claiming Syria attempted to purchase “large (thousand ton) quantities” of yellowcake from Namibia.70

- In December 1991 Syria purchased a 30 kilowatt neutron-source research reactor from China, reactor is not suitable for weapons production. The Atomic Energy Commission of Syria received 980.4 g of 90.2% enriched Uranium 235 as part of the deal.

- Russia and Syria have approved a draft of a plan for cooperation on civil nuclear power, which is expected to provide opportunities for Syria to expand its indigenous nuclear capabilities.71 Reports surfaced in January of 2003 indicating that Syria and Russia had reached an agreement on the construction of a $2 billion facility that would include a nuclear reactor. Although within several days, Russian Foreign Ministry officials had indicated that no reactor would be sold.72


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