Semsem
07-05-2004, 11:53 PM
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Jul. 6, 2004 0:12 | Updated Jul. 6, 2004 8:49
ElBaradei should know Teheran is the threat, not Dimona
By GERALD STEINBERG
The timing of today's visit by International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei is awkward for Israel.
While international attention is focused on efforts by the Islamic Republic of Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, this visit will turn the focus briefly to Dimona. We will see a flood of facile comparisons between Israel's nuclear ambiguity, which has prevented annihilation, and the radical Iranian leadership's aggressive declarations and policies.
While ElBaradei will talk idealistically about a Middle East Nuclear Weapons Free Zone, the realities of terrorism and hatred of Israel are making this objective more unrealistic than ever.
For ElBaradei and the IAEA, Iran's continued violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and transparent attempts to cover up the evidence, threaten the survival of the organization. For two decades, the IAEA has sought to repair the damage from its failure to detect Iraq's illegal nuclear weapons facilities, which were often located next to "legitimate" civilian research sites. In 1981, international inaction forced the government led by prime minister Menachem Begin to act unilaterally to destroy the Osiraq reactor.
After the ritual condemnation subsided, the world began to realize that Begin's decision prevented catastrophe, IAEA verification systems were tightened, and new regulations (known as the Additional Protocol) were written. Under ElBaradei, the IAEA's inspectorate has demonstrated an increased level of professionalism and credibility.
However, this is being tested by Teheran's drive to obtain nuclear weapons, and the outcome – as well as the future of the NPT/IAEA system – is very much in doubt. Inspectors' reports of March and June 2004 include many "smoking guns," such as blatant inconsistencies in Iranian explanations for traces of fissile materials detected by the inspectors; long delays in granting access to key sites; failure to report advanced enrichment equipment such as thousands of advanced P-2 centrifuges; massive construction at the Natanz enrichment facility and other sites; and plants to prepare large amounts of uranium for enrichment.
Satellite images show sites that have been totally demolished and "scraped clean," apparently reflecting major efforts to hide traces of nuclear weapons activity from the inspectors.
In this process, Iran has also destroyed an IAEA proposal to prevent the abuse of nuclear facilities through international control of fuel cycle elements. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Hassan Rohani recently declared that "the world must accept that Iran has [nuclear] fuel cycle [capabilities], and has enriched uranium within Iran's [territory]."
However, during his visit to Israel, ElBaradei will try to avoid being drawn into a public discussion about Iran, and this is also in the Israeli interest. The threats posed by the shadowy government in Iran are not confined to Israel, but rather are regional and international.
(Continued from page 1)
The Bush administration is committed to act to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, and Europe – led by Britain, France, and Germany – has threatened to impose massive economic sanctions on Iran if the weapons production program continues. Whether they are able to act effectively remains to be seen, and if they fail, the regional arms race will spin out of control. But discussion of these issues will take place behind closed doors.
Instead, in his public statements, the head of the IAEA, who visited Israel in 1998 after taking his position, will repeat calls on Israel, along with the other non-signatories – India and Pakistan – to sign the NPT. (Unlike Iran, Israel has not signed the NPT, received any benefits, violated commitments, or acted irresponsibly.)
This is part of ElBaradei's mandate, and every year the UN General Assembly and other international bodies ritually instruct the director-general to press Israel on the issue of "universality."
And this visit will make it politically easier for the Egyptian-born diplomat to justify pressure on Iran.
In response, Israeli officials will restate the unique dangers of annihilation. Hard-core Arab and Islamic anti-Semitism is widespread, and being broadcast to Europe and North America. Officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran continue to declare their rejection of "the Zionist entity," while supporting and working closely with terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hizbullah.
Former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani called the establishment of the Jewish state the "worst event in history," and Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenai declared "that the cancerous tumor called Israel must be uprooted from the region."
Given this reality, an increasing number of world leaders, including British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Foreign Minister Jack Straw, publicly acknowledge that the unique threat to Israel requires exceptional responses.
Simplistic trade-offs involving Iranian compliance with its obligations and Israeli concessions will not change this. As long as Jewish sovereignty and Israel's right to equality as a state among the nations is denied, the need for a credible deterrent will not end.
ElBaradei's visit cannot change the strategic realities in the Middle East, but he may hear some ideas for eventual development of regional security cooperation based on mutual acceptance. Meanwhile, efforts to shortcut the process to try to gain Israeli entry into the NPT framework in the absence of peace and regional stability are counterproductive.
Prof. Gerald M. Steinberg is director of the Program on Conflict Management and Resolution at Bar-Ilan University.
Jul. 6, 2004 0:12 | Updated Jul. 6, 2004 8:49
ElBaradei should know Teheran is the threat, not Dimona
By GERALD STEINBERG
The timing of today's visit by International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei is awkward for Israel.
While international attention is focused on efforts by the Islamic Republic of Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, this visit will turn the focus briefly to Dimona. We will see a flood of facile comparisons between Israel's nuclear ambiguity, which has prevented annihilation, and the radical Iranian leadership's aggressive declarations and policies.
While ElBaradei will talk idealistically about a Middle East Nuclear Weapons Free Zone, the realities of terrorism and hatred of Israel are making this objective more unrealistic than ever.
For ElBaradei and the IAEA, Iran's continued violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and transparent attempts to cover up the evidence, threaten the survival of the organization. For two decades, the IAEA has sought to repair the damage from its failure to detect Iraq's illegal nuclear weapons facilities, which were often located next to "legitimate" civilian research sites. In 1981, international inaction forced the government led by prime minister Menachem Begin to act unilaterally to destroy the Osiraq reactor.
After the ritual condemnation subsided, the world began to realize that Begin's decision prevented catastrophe, IAEA verification systems were tightened, and new regulations (known as the Additional Protocol) were written. Under ElBaradei, the IAEA's inspectorate has demonstrated an increased level of professionalism and credibility.
However, this is being tested by Teheran's drive to obtain nuclear weapons, and the outcome – as well as the future of the NPT/IAEA system – is very much in doubt. Inspectors' reports of March and June 2004 include many "smoking guns," such as blatant inconsistencies in Iranian explanations for traces of fissile materials detected by the inspectors; long delays in granting access to key sites; failure to report advanced enrichment equipment such as thousands of advanced P-2 centrifuges; massive construction at the Natanz enrichment facility and other sites; and plants to prepare large amounts of uranium for enrichment.
Satellite images show sites that have been totally demolished and "scraped clean," apparently reflecting major efforts to hide traces of nuclear weapons activity from the inspectors.
In this process, Iran has also destroyed an IAEA proposal to prevent the abuse of nuclear facilities through international control of fuel cycle elements. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Hassan Rohani recently declared that "the world must accept that Iran has [nuclear] fuel cycle [capabilities], and has enriched uranium within Iran's [territory]."
However, during his visit to Israel, ElBaradei will try to avoid being drawn into a public discussion about Iran, and this is also in the Israeli interest. The threats posed by the shadowy government in Iran are not confined to Israel, but rather are regional and international.
(Continued from page 1)
The Bush administration is committed to act to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, and Europe – led by Britain, France, and Germany – has threatened to impose massive economic sanctions on Iran if the weapons production program continues. Whether they are able to act effectively remains to be seen, and if they fail, the regional arms race will spin out of control. But discussion of these issues will take place behind closed doors.
Instead, in his public statements, the head of the IAEA, who visited Israel in 1998 after taking his position, will repeat calls on Israel, along with the other non-signatories – India and Pakistan – to sign the NPT. (Unlike Iran, Israel has not signed the NPT, received any benefits, violated commitments, or acted irresponsibly.)
This is part of ElBaradei's mandate, and every year the UN General Assembly and other international bodies ritually instruct the director-general to press Israel on the issue of "universality."
And this visit will make it politically easier for the Egyptian-born diplomat to justify pressure on Iran.
In response, Israeli officials will restate the unique dangers of annihilation. Hard-core Arab and Islamic anti-Semitism is widespread, and being broadcast to Europe and North America. Officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran continue to declare their rejection of "the Zionist entity," while supporting and working closely with terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hizbullah.
Former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani called the establishment of the Jewish state the "worst event in history," and Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenai declared "that the cancerous tumor called Israel must be uprooted from the region."
Given this reality, an increasing number of world leaders, including British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Foreign Minister Jack Straw, publicly acknowledge that the unique threat to Israel requires exceptional responses.
Simplistic trade-offs involving Iranian compliance with its obligations and Israeli concessions will not change this. As long as Jewish sovereignty and Israel's right to equality as a state among the nations is denied, the need for a credible deterrent will not end.
ElBaradei's visit cannot change the strategic realities in the Middle East, but he may hear some ideas for eventual development of regional security cooperation based on mutual acceptance. Meanwhile, efforts to shortcut the process to try to gain Israeli entry into the NPT framework in the absence of peace and regional stability are counterproductive.
Prof. Gerald M. Steinberg is director of the Program on Conflict Management and Resolution at Bar-Ilan University.