Insurgency at 200,000 plus...?

[philingraham]

Is this just another piece of disinformation from French Media or is there more truth here than we'd like to admit ?
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=11487

[TDidier]

Is this just another piece of disinformation from French Media or is there more truth here than we'd like to admit ?
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=11487

certainly disinformation ;)

[KettleWhistle]

Depends...

BAGHDAD: Iraq's insurgency counts more than 200,000 active fighters and sympathizers, the country's national intelligence chief said, in the bleakest assessment to date of the armed revolt waged by Sunnis.

Speaking in an interview, Iraqi intelligence service director General Mohammed Abdullah Shahwani said: "I think the resistance is bigger than the U.S. military in Iraq. I think the resistance is more than 200,000 people."

Shahwani said the number includes at least 40,000 hard-core fighters but rises to more than 200,000 members counting part-time fighters and volunteers who provide rebels everything from intelligence and logistics to shelter. The numbers far exceed any figure presented by the U.S. military in Iraq.



According to http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0107644.html , the population of Iraq is a little over 25 million, with Sunnis accounting for 32-37% of the population. 35% of 25 million gives us an approximate number of Sunnis in Iraq at about 8.8 million. So that number just may be real, but...

It is a general cultural trait of the developing countries, and especially that of the Arab world, to exagerate the reality. When in the West someone tells you that you will receive something tomorrow, it is meant literally. In Arab lands, the word "tomorrow" means just that, but it is neither meant nor understood literally, and tomorrow can turn out to be "in a month." Likewise, an Iraqi offical saying 200,000 can easily be a bloated figure, used a figure of speach, rather than an actual report.

Either way, I wouldn't really trust any such number, since today's insurgent can become tomorrow's lawful citizen, and otherwise, as the situation there can change by the minute.

[philingraham]

Depends...

BAGHDAD: Iraq's insurgency counts more than 200,000 active fighters and sympathizers, the country's national intelligence chief said, in the bleakest assessment to date of the armed revolt waged by Sunnis.

Speaking in an interview, Iraqi intelligence service director General Mohammed Abdullah Shahwani said: "I think the resistance is bigger than the U.S. military in Iraq. I think the resistance is more than 200,000 people."

Shahwani said the number includes at least 40,000 hard-core fighters but rises to more than 200,000 members counting part-time fighters and volunteers who provide rebels everything from intelligence and logistics to shelter. The numbers far exceed any figure presented by the U.S. military in Iraq.



According to http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0107644.html , the population of Iraq is a little over 25 million, with Sunnis accounting for 32-37% of the population. 35% of 25 million gives us an approximate number of Sunnis in Iraq at about 8.8 million. So that number just may be real, but...

It is a general cultural trait of the developing countries, and especially that of the Arab world, to exagerate the reality. When in the West someone tells you that you will receive something tomorrow, it is meant literally. In Arab lands, the word "tomorrow" means just that, but it is neither meant nor understood literally, and tomorrow can turn out to be "in a month." Likewise, an Iraqi offical saying 200,000 can easily be a bloated figure, used a figure of speach, rather than an actual report.

Either way, I wouldn't really trust any such number, since today's insurgent can become tomorrow's lawful citizen, and otherwise, as the situation there can change by the minute.

Well, OK, let's assume you're right and instead of 200,000 plus there is only 138,456...Would this then build confidence in the Administration's plans for a democratic Iraq ?

[KettleWhistle]

Well, OK, let's assume you're right and instead of 200,000 plus there is only 138,456...Would this then build confidence in the Administration's plans for a democratic Iraq ? I can't say it has any effect on my confidence. The real number may be 50,000 today and 500,000 tomorrow. It all depends on a number of factors. For once, someone who has a job will be more likely not to support the millitants than someone who has nothing else to do all day long. My reaction to what is happening there is more of a disappointment with the inefficiency of our actions. I believe that we are making progress, but way too slow. Fallujah should've been taken about a year ago. We should have had more personnel there. Iraqi training got way too slow of a start. But I do believe that the situation will improve, but it won't happen overnight. We will be in Iraq for several more years.

[philingraham]

Exactly why do you believe that the situation will improve ?

[KettleWhistle]

Because we are making progress. Slowly but steadily, more and more Iraqi troops are being trained. More infastructure is being restored. More territory is being recovered from the millitants.

[philingraham]

Because we are making progress. Slowly but steadily, more and more Iraqi troops are being trained. More infastructure is being restored. More territory is being recovered from the millitants.

We clearly are making no progress. More Iraqi troops are being "trained" but flee when confronted by their highly motivated countrymen. Also we can't supply gasoline at a reasonable price or keep the electricity on. Pacification is not securing more territory from the insurgents.
I am amazed that we can look at the same situation and draw such different conclusions.

[KettleWhistle]

What I see is us making a slow progress, while encountering new difficulties along the way.

[Hisardut]

progress with no help from the french propogandists.

[Northlander]

Because we are making progress. Slowly but steadily, more and more Iraqi troops are being trained. More infastructure is being restored. More territory is being recovered from the millitants.

What makes you belive those trained Iraqi troops will be loyal to whatever government wins an eventual election? Are you familiar with the problems in having an army and generals who can flip flop any minute. It sounds a bit latin america to me. We might perfectly well end up with a military junta in Iraq when you leave. What that means is that your administration probably will accept that scenario and just make sure its "their" junta. That probably means Saddam methods all over again or else they will be overrun the minute you leave. Or are you gonna stay forever? Well, then you gonna have 2 million insurgents in a couple of years.

How can anyone think the future looks bright for Iraq?

[Mediocrates]

You're right, they're untrainable monkeys and we should simply abandon all hope of them ever accomplishing anything on their own.

I'm so glad that liberalism is alive.

[defari]

I believe the situation will be better in Iraq. That's my hope at least. It would be nice to have another democratic country in that part of the world. So far, we only have Israel and therefore it's my opinion that it's really important to support Israel as a role model for other countries...but not just in that region but everywhere else. I'm not an Israeli nor Jewish, but I'm really impressed with the way Israel is handling things. It has the best army in the world. The only thing that stands in the way is the size of the army. If Israel's army had the size of the US it would be the strongets and most sufficient army on earth. And the way the country cares about its people is heartbreaking. I don't know, I just think it seems to be the best country in the world.

[Northlander]

You're right, they're untrainable monkeys and we should simply abandon all hope of them ever accomplishing anything on their own.

See you point. But if they are so capable of accomplishing peace on their own, what the heck are you doing there now?

You are doing nothing but distributing power. You are trying to weaken one part, the one you dont like, while trying to train and develop the others. Things will really have to go smoothly and according to plans for all that to succed. History tells us these methods have a tendency to backfire.
The truth is that when you leave, IF you leave, in that moment you dont know what will happen. No matter how much intelligence you have down there. They are not trained monkeys, thats my point exactly. They are 25 million people with a load of views and agendas. So far military power have kept Iraq together. Its really just a construction to begin with. And right now military might is keeping Iraq together, barely. I havent seen one single reason why it would change after traumatizing a whole new generation with this war.

I believe the situation will be better in Iraq. That's my hope at least. It would be nice to have another democratic country in that part of the world. So far, we only have Israel and therefore it's my opinion that it's really important to support Israel as a role model for other countries...but not just in that region but everywhere else. I'm not an Israeli nor Jewish, but I'm really impressed with the way Israel is handling things. It has the best army in the world. The only thing that stands in the way is the size of the army. If Israel's army had the size of the US it would be the strongets and most sufficient army on earth. And the way the country cares about its people is heartbreaking. I don't know, I just think it seems to be the best country in the world.

I think you are naive. Your description of Israel proves you are. I have never got that kind of black and white kind views of entire nations and populations. Of cource there are admireable things about Israel, but why this obsession? Its only a group of human beings living together. They have their share of criminality, pederasts, mass murderers, fascists, communists, whatever frieghtens you. What the hell has having a capable army has to do with being the "best" country? Well, I guess N.Korea is much better than Iceland too?

Besides we can argue how tested IDF has been. Honestly, how hard was it defeating those Arab nations? Im not arguing Israel has a good army, I just think it has been somewhat mystified..and gloryfied, a smart move and part of what really is Israels strength, intelligence. In the word´s both meanings.

Arguing that the Arabs had Russian weapons and therefore were a tremendous foe is of cource rubbish. Their moral sucked, on the contrary to those insurgents we see in Iraq today, and their leadership were worse than a Swedish catastrophy plan. How good IDF are today, we can only guess since they have just been fighting 10 year olds with sticks and stones for quite some time.

[defari]

Of cource there are admireable things about Israel, but why this obsession?


And what is your obession with this board? Why do you come to this forum when all you do is hate? Don't you have anything better do to with your spare time? Why hang out on a message board if you don't like people's opinions here? Go find an anti-Israeli forum and post there. I haven't read one positive comment by you. You make me sad actually.

[Mediocrates]

See you point. But if they are so capable of accomplishing peace on their own, what the heck are you doing there now?
I imagine that the politic answer answer is we are there to transition them from tyranny to something else halfway between tyranny and a republic of some sort. Or at least a more liberal authoritarian government.

You are doing nothing but distributing power. You are trying to weaken one part, the one you dont like, while trying to train and develop the others. Things will really have to go smoothly and according to plans for all that to succed. History tells us these methods have a tendency to backfire.
Playing favorites and shoving the politics of the country in one direction or another is bad...why? I see your allies in the PLO more or less being aided by you in precisely the same way for precisely the same reason.

The truth is that when you leave, IF you leave, in that moment you dont know what will happen.
Yes that's exactly true. I could become another mess. It could become a lot of things. Depends on how you look at it.

No matter how much intelligence you have down there. They are not trained monkeys, thats my point exactly. They are 25 million people with a load of views and agendas. So far military power have kept Iraq together. Its really just a construction to begin with. And right now military might is keeping Iraq together, barely. I havent seen one single reason why it would change after traumatizing a whole new generation with this war.
I don't think anyone has a lock on crystal-ball gazing. I don't particularly think that national cohesion will be that important in the long run anyway. It's certainly not the norm in the world where Columbians give up a third of theif country to rebels, where the Sudanese just agreed to semiautonomous rule for Darfur, where Afghanistan is confederacy of tribes held together by baksheesh, where even Taiwan is a rebel splinter province fortunate enough to be separated from China by the sea and the US fleet. So if Iraq develops into a college of constituent states then it would not be so alarming either.

[Mediocrates]

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/focusoniraq/2005/January/focusoniraq_January17.xml&section=focusoniraq

Mosul suicide bomber was Saudi medical student: report
(AP)

3 January 2005




CAIRO - The suicide bomber who killed 22 people when he blew himself up in a US mess hall in Mosul, Iraq, was a Saudi medical student, an Arab newspaper reported Monday.

Saudi-owned Asharq Al-Awsat identified him as 20-year-old Ahmed Said Ahmed al-Ghamdi, citing unnamed friends of the man’s father. The friends said members of an Iraqi resistance group contacted al-Ghamdi’s father to tell him his son was the suicide bomber who carried out the Dec. 21 attack, the deadliest on an American installation in Iraq.

The Associated Press was unable to reach Saudi security officials for comment despite several phone calls on Monday.

The US-led coalition that toppled Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein has faced fierce resistance, most of it carried out by Saddam loyalists or Iraqi nationalists. Some of the deadliest attacks, though, have been blamed on foreign Muslim extremists.

US officials have said their preliminary investigation indicates the bomber was dressed in an Iraqi military uniform - but was not an Iraqi soldier - when he slipped into a mess tent packed with soldiers eating lunch in northern Iraq.

The father refused to discuss the suicide bombing, but told the newspaper his son had gone to Iraq to fight the Americans and had died there. The family held a mourning ceremony the paper said. It did not say when the ceremony was held or where in Saudi Arabia the family lived.

The paper did not name the Iraqi resistance group. But Ansar al-Sunnah, a radical Islamic Iraqi group that has been active in northern Iraq, claimed responsibility for the mess hall attack. In a videotape posted on the Web, Ansar al-Sunnah identified the suicide bomber as Abu Omar al-Musali - an apparent nom de guerre meaning Abu Omar of Mosul.

The man identified as Abu Omar al-Musali appeared in the Web video wearing an explosives-laden vest, but did not speak. Another man, speaking in an Iraqi accent, described how the operation had been planned. A subsequent segment showed what appeared to have been the attack.

Ansar al-Sunnah shares the anti-Western, Quranic rhetoric of Islamic extremist groups like Al Qaeda, but has confined its fight to Iraq and has not actively recruited foreign fighters. The group, though, has declared that it worked with an Al Qaeda branch in Iraq on at least one operation, in November.

Asharq al-Awsat said al-Ghamdi started studying medicine in Sudan when his father worked and lived there. Al-Ghamdi stayed to complete his studies when his family returned to Saudi Arabia, the paper reported, without saying when the family left.

It said the father said he learned Dec. 16 that his son had withdrawn all the money left in a Sudanese bank account for him and later received a phone call from his son telling him that he was in Iraq to fight the Americans.

The al-Ghamdis are a large Saudi clan. Three al-Ghamdis were among the Sept. 11 hijackers.

Saudi Arabia has launched a crackdown on militants that started after terrorism was brought home with an alleged Al Qaeda attack on three residential compounds in Riyadh in May 2003. The kingdom also has been under pressure to ensure Saudi militants do not cross its border into Iraq.

[minusthejihad]

You're right, they're untrainable monkeys and we should simply abandon all hope of them ever accomplishing anything on their own.

I'm so glad that liberalism is alive.

So true!!

The people who act as if they identify with or try to protect the third worlders happen to be the most ethnocentric people around, such as North and his cocky French elitists on this board.