Report claims to debunk 'demographic bomb'

[sharonbn]

An extra-academic document that debunks one of the foundations of the disengagement plan, "the demographic bomb," will be presented in Washington on Monday to a prestigious academic institution with substantial influence on the Bush administration. The document, which Haaretz has obtained, argues that 2.4 million Palestinians live in the West Bank and Gaza Strip today, and not the 3.8 million claimed by the Palestinian Authority.

In sharp contrast to population studies conducted in Israel by professors Arnon Sofer and Sergio della Pergola, the document argues that Jews continue to maintain a solid 60 percent majority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.

An Israeli-American group whose members are clearly identified with the right authored the ABC Demographic Project. The group undercuts a prevailing assumption in Israel's public debate - that Jews have ceased, or will soon cease to be, a majority in that territory. The demographic danger is not "all it's made out to be," the writers state.

The document claims the updated 2004 statistic presented by the Central Bureau of Statistics on the Palestinian population in the territories - 3.8 million people - is unreliable. It doesn't incorporate emigration from PA territory, which they estimate at hundreds of thousands, a drop in fertility, or tens of thousands of deaths, and it includes about 200,000 residents of East Jerusalem, who are also counted in the Israeli census.

According to the document, Palestinian population growth was 2.4 percent in 2003, not the 4.5 percent reported by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/525265.html

[sharonbn]

btw, this news item is Haaretz scoop (at least among Israeli media.)

[Mediocrates]

And therefore suspect, no?

[sharonbn]

time will tell. I personally trust the news source.

[Mediocrates]

What do you think their spin on it will be?

[sharonbn]

who's they? Haaretz? the media? the gov't? the settlers?

[Mediocrates]

whomever, what do you think the fallout of this would be?

[sharonbn]

I don't know.
I think Sharon has set his mind up to do the disengagment. He has put his whole reputation on the line. He cannot back down now.

[Mediocrates]

I think quite the reverse and I think the fine people at "Ignoramus" know that. I think that a study which purports to assert that there is no so called time bomb is intended to show Sharon the futility of fighting for even one square inch of Yesha and a corresponding lack of support from the US. I think you will get your wish which is a retreat to the lines of '67 and a surrender of all of Gaza (of course) but also all of the West Bank, Jerusalem and Golan in toto.


I also think studies such as this will be used as a hammer by the Bush administration for Israel to concede massive concessions on the Palestinian right of return. I would expect a number somewhere in the vicinity of 30% for a Jewish minority inside Israel as the arguing-about number when Abbas directed 'peace negotiations' kick off later this year.

[Mediocrates]

Don't forget that the day that there is declared a independent Palestinian state, every Arab country will empty themselves of 100% of their Palestinians and force them into Palestine in order to both cleanse themselves, and force a mass exodus into Israel in order to finally collapse your state. That means a rough tripling of the Palestinian population overnight but unlike the history of Israel 48-54 you will see them calling for a solution to their problems in the form of you leaving Israel and turning over all your country and everything in it, to them. I even put a small probability on mass human waves across the Green line that simply can't be stopped. Figure 1 million people just march across.

[MGB8]

Hence the barrier/wall. I don't think, however, that this extreme scenario will come to pass. Certainly the Arab nations will expel a great portion of their refugees, except for Jordan where most of them are anyway.

However, I do agree that this type of articule could be used to try to force concession on a "right of return." That said, I think Israel could fairly conceed this much - people who were actually expelled (not their relatives or decendents) and can prove they had property are entitled to return to that property, if it still exists and is capable of being returned to, or they will get monetary compensation for their lost property plus an amount for the inconvenience of fleeing a war and not being allowed back. In return, however, Jews would have to recieve the same from property lost when they were expelled from the Arab nations.

[Mediocrates]

http://www.pademographics.com/

The Presentation is 61 pages, the full report 117 (Powerpoint)

[I am David]

So can we trust it? Is it more accurate to say the population is 2.4 million rather than 3.8 million?

[Ariksan]

I think you will get your wish which is a retreat to the lines of '67 and a surrender of all of Gaza (of course) but also all of the West Bank, Jerusalem and Golan in toto.

Yep, and after that the triangle. This was actually already discussed... And hey, the negev has an arab majority too, why not give it up too. And then the galil. Welcome to the State of Gush Dan formerly known as Israel.

[JBG]

Don't forget that the day that there is declared a independent Palestinian state, every Arab country will empty themselves of 100% of their Palestinians and force them into Palestine in order to both cleanse themselves, and force a mass exodus into Israel in order to finally collapse your state. That means a rough tripling of the Palestinian population overnight but unlike the history of Israel 48-54 you will see them calling for a solution to their problems in the form of you leaving Israel and turning over all your country and everything in it, to them. I even put a small probability on mass human waves across the Green line that simply can't be stopped. Figure 1 million people just march across.

I totally agree with your analysis. Also, I have little question, despite the fraudulent nature of the PA report, that the Palestininans are breeding, basically, like rabbits. This situation is still alarming.