chinese support on Israel - Part 2

[Skogan]

Note: This discussion is continued from Part 1 (http://www.israelforum.com/board/showthread.php3?postid=5102#post5102). The last post in Part 1 is Here (http://www.israelforum.com/board/showthread.php3?postid=9081#post9081).



Whether your talking about in the U.S. or S. Korea, having a military base nearby is a 2 edge sword. Not to take anything away from the other points made, but in general people want bases because of they boost the economy, and don't want them because of the effect on the neighborhood. Those arguements are there regardless of the threat of North going South.

Two of the big military excercises held there every year (at least used to be) are Team Spirit and Valiant Blitz. Besides the people already in country, (mostly army and air force) you get a sudden injection of about 30,000 Marines. These are people without housing, food or clothing bills, its their chance to go overseas, and they spend their money likes it's going out of style.

Think of it as a super tourism industry.

On the other hand, they carry these excersises out in the most realistic way possible. This means farms and fields get torn up. Once I was driving a hummer on a hill to find a good place to put up an antena. As I was driving around, I saw all these little foot high statues on the ground. Only then did I realize I was driving across a Korean cemetary. The people who saw this were understandable upset. I've seen farmers attack helicopters with pitch forks because they were going to land in his field.

I don't know how much that plays into what you guys are talking about, but I think it is a factor in regards to if you support a military presence. Do you gain or lose from them being there.


Skogan

[kauffner]

takeo: I don't know about war, but tensions are likely to increase dramatically very soon. KEDO was supposed to complete building reactors for North Korea by 2003. NK kept demanding more money, the worked slowed, and now there is no way to meet the deadline. That will be official at the end of this year, at which point the North Koreans may decide to retaliate somehow. If they restart the Yangbyon facility, the U.S. could bomb it. NK is also talking about using its missiles and nuclear weapons against the U.S. and Japan.

The last time the U.S. withdrew from South Korea, the North invaded. It is not logical to think that withdrawal will moderate its behavior this time around. "The U.S. troops stationed in the South are the only thing deterring war on the peninsula," according to Hwang Jong-yop. Hwang is former propaganda chief for North Korea and defected in 1997, so I submit that he understands North Korean thinking better than you.

http://www.time.com/time/asia/asia/magazine/1998/980907/interview.html

[christian]

Originally posted by Skogan


Think of it as a super tourism industry.

On the other hand, they carry these excersises out in the most realistic way possible. This means farms and fields get torn up. Once I was driving a hummer on a hill to find a good place to put up an antena. As I was driving around, I saw all these little foot high statues on the ground. Only then did I realize I was driving across a Korean cemetary. The people who saw this were understandable upset. I've seen farmers attack helicopters with pitch forks because they were going to land in his field.

skogan

Talk about toursim, American GI has their contribution on red light district. MOst American GI thinks they have a bigger p**nis than most oriental. Which would satisfy their oriental woman.
:D

Sorry. It is a funny joke. It is too serious in this forum.

[kauffner]

Skogan: Cholla Province is the center of anti-Americanism and I don't think there is much of a U.S. military presence there. Anti-U.S. feeling seems to relate more to foreign policy issues and to Korea's place in world affairs. Certainly Koreans blame the U.S. troops for prostitution and crime. But prostitution is everywhere here and it's very rare for a U.S. soldier to commit a crime against a Korean. So these not so much practical issues as a way of demanding respect, especially if Japan is perceived as getting better treatment on matters such as the Status of Force Agreement, which governs the treatment U.S. soldiers accused of crimes.

[christian]

Originally posted by kauffner
Skogan: Cholla Province is the center of anti-Americanism and I don't think there is much of a U.S. military presence there. Anti-U.S. feeling seems to relate more to foreign policy issues and to Korea's place in world affairs. Certainly Koreans blame the U.S. troops for prostitution and crime. But prostitution is everywhere here and it's very rare for a U.S. soldier to commit a crime against a Korean. So these not so much practical issues as a way of demanding respect, especially if Japan is perceived as getting better treatment on matters such as the Status of Force Agreement, which governs the treatment U.S. soldiers accused of crimes.

With current military capability, US can reach to S. Korea in 20 mins. Japan Okinawa has a US military base. There is no reason US presence will contribute N. Korea peace talk.

Yes. It is sad, the propangda chief is speaking out. However, this is not the main point of permanent peace. This article is about a defector, who wants to overthrown the N. Korea government.

The presence of US military will only fuel the suspicion of N. Korea regime. Any talks can not be negotiated with suspicion.
The people in S. korea supports US presence, is only minority. Many S. Korea know US presence is not directed to N. Korea, but China. In the news, all the protest is about US presence that fuel the tension between China, N. korea and S. korea. This is the last thing S. Korean wants. S. korea businesses invests billions and billions of dollars in China. The refugee crisis is already demonstrated the warm relationship between China and S. korea.(Five N. korea who is caught in Japan's embassy, has been released) It is very unlikely, the chinese destroyer will help N. korea for another invasion. The age of Mao is gone.

The demonstration of countless warm relationship between China and S. Korea just makes average S. Korea dislike US presence. This year the world cup, S. Korea issues many visas to Chinese Tourist. There are many countless incident, China is playing a vital part of the peace talk.

So, I don't understand the US presence will help negotiation. N. korea wouldn't attack in near future, eventhough they have a evil scheme like global domination. N. Korea knows any attack without Chinese approval, it is like commiting a suicide. The N. korea knows US will find excuse to overthrown the regime, if the reason is legit such as invasion.

[christian]

S. Korea is much more informed about the news in east pacific coast than american experts. I am friends with many s. korean. They all dislike the US presence, since the cold war is ended.
Last year, the axis of evil speech really hurts many s. korean. They are just applying the sunshine policy. They are talking about rail road. Mr. bush rejects the offer of sunshine policy, then he calls N. korea as a of axis of evil. All the work of the S. Korea is vanished in few sentences.

All the s. korean prefers a soft influence like peace, gradual change of N. korea regime, etc. Last thing they want, is a American GI applies his hard influence.

[takeo]

"takeo: I don't know about war, but tensions are likely to increase dramatically very soon. KEDO was supposed to complete building reactors for North Korea by 2003. NK kept demanding more money, the worked slowed, and now there is no way to meet the deadline. That will be official at the end of this year, at which point the North Koreans may decide to retaliate somehow. If they restart the Yangbyon facility, the U.S. could bomb it. NK is also talking about using its missiles and nuclear weapons against the U.S. and Japan. "

I think any Northkorean attack would be suicide and they have started a campaign of better relations with the world, resulting in the visit of Ms. Albright. Also china will pressure its ally enough to prevend such an attack. However the prospect that they will restart the nuclear facility because the US didn't kept its promise can be real. The most reasonable thing to do would be to help building the reactor as planned, in any case i don't think even the bush-administration will be stupid enough to bomb North-korea, which could provoke a nuclear attack or a war with China.

"The last time the U.S. withdrew from South Korea, the North invaded. It is not logical to think that withdrawal will moderate its behavior this time around. "The U.S. troops stationed in the South are the only thing deterring war on the peninsula," according to Hwang Jong-yop. Hwang is former propaganda chief for North Korea and defected in 1997, so I submit that he understands North Korean thinking better than you. "

defectors always say what their hosts like to hear, that's commonly known. Northkoreans know as well that they are in no position to attack the South and have showed willingness to talk with the south. North-Korea would benefit as well warmer relations with the south to improove its economy. Their whole propaganda is concentrated on defending their own territory against a possible American aggression, not on "reunification" by force.

[christian]

kauffner,
http://www.china-defense.com/history/sino-vn_1/sino-vn_1-1.html

China - vietnam war is designed as a punishment for incursion into Cambodia and Laos. The goal is to punish Vietnam,because Vietnam ambituous program is to conquer southeast asia. Vietnam gains so much confidence by allying with Soviet, and win the war with US. The sole purpose is not to occupy like the US.
The purpose is to teach Vietnam a lesson. Any incursion into the southeast asia , China will not sit around.

Southeast Asia stability is vital to chinese economy. It is proven after the china-vietnam war, vietnam never have any incursion afterwards. Thus, southeast asia achieves stability.

According the Lee Kwan yuan biography, the thai king is scare of vietnam's invasion. Other southeast asian are also afraid of vietnam and soviets partnership. The US basically don't want to involve in another south east conflict.

The goal of China achieved.

[Northlander]

You all get it wrong. Wealthy China is not a westernized China. It is not an Asian version of us. Or you. A wealthy China is simply that and if nothing else, the PRC has been able to divorce economic development, to the outside world, from internal politics. There is simply no comparison. You will never have, nor is there any reason to believe you should, have any western political institutions in a wealthy China with a strong middle class. The two are not connected in way. Even outside looking in, China is viewed by the west as a vast untapped market and they will invest on the chance to tap into that market no matter the internal politics. You really really don't understand capitalism if you think otherwise.
I agree with Mediocrates on this one.
Also "What is important is that no matter what happens, what the PRC and Taiwan evolve into will be something more democratic but there is nothing, no law or principal that says it has to look like western democracy."
China will, if not because of other reasons,still because of the huge population probably not evolve into something like the western economies. I dont think we should think too much in military terms when we discuss asian politics right now. It can come to that fast enough but the economical interests at this time in history collides with the political ambitions.
I dont belive for one second that US would attack N.Korea no matter what because there is nothing to gain from it. China would definitely intervene and both chinese and US economies would suffer from that, european too. IF, and I dont claim to know, s.koreans want a US withdrawal, US should of course do that. It would help the relations between north and south in the long run. I dont think n.korea would attack the south in the event of us troops leaving either. China would pressure them to hard. China would lose more than USA on a war and they cant afford it in the same way. NATO would not support an attack on N.korea. Well britain would and probably australia and canada but not the others. EU and USA are allies military but by no means economically and EU would not want to go on a collision cource with China at this time i belive. But you never know of cource.
When it comes to taiwan, same thing. China will not attack them.
First their navy would be smashed in the event of US support to Taiwan, if it can be called a navy. And secondly it would again make their economy suffer. In the mind of the political elite i think it matters none that the people on Taiwan are chinese and speak mandarin. But for the average manlaind chinese it probalby does so the support for an attack would not be total I imagine.
As it is now I think military threats in the region are more or less neglectable. Lets hope Bush doesnt get any ideas.
I speak on a daily basis with a friend living in Hong Kong.
She says life goes on as usual after HK getting chinese. I think that taiwan too will become a part of china but not by military actions. By culture and economical and diplomatic bonds they will join. It might take time and the rate of development in china is probably the issue. One thing that strikes me when speaking with people living in HK is the hatred and suspision against the japanese. I understand the anger but I didnt know it was so common, and definitely not in HK. So the japanese position in politics in the region could probably matter alot.

[kauffner]

The fact is that the US-troops in South-Korea are a serious treath to the north, which will prevent any moderation of the regime there (which still puts "american aggression" in the middle of their propaganda) and will undermine the "sunshine policy" of the southkorean president.
NK leader Kim Jong-il has repeatedly and publicly explained why he doesn't favor "moderation of the regime" and the reason is not the American military presence. This is from his New Year's Day 2000 address to the nation: "Reform and opening up is the fastest way to collapse." He's right, too. What North Koreans believe is so out-of-touch with reality that the regime cannot survive unless it remains closed off from the outside world.

To North Korea, any American presence in Korea is "aggression." NK doesn't build tunnels under the DMZ because it is afraid of U.S. attack. The North Korean regime is one nasty piece of work and you want to give them the thing they want most, apparently just because they want it. Is this not appeasement in the purest form? I am wondering what you would have said if you were at Munich. A totalitarian state needs an enemy to justify its repressive rule. If the U.S. was to withdraw, NK would come up with some other grievence.

"Sunshine policy" is a grotesque name for what amounts to a policy of concealing and denying North Korean misbehavior. Just before the North-South summit in 2000, NK publically executed a would-be defector. Seoul knew, but didn't reveal it for months so as not to spoil the good feelings. At the time of the summit, every major media outlet in South Korea except one (the newspaper Chosun Ilbo) made a formal pledge to participate in the government's policy of downplaying news that might annoy North Korea. When the largest drug bust in Korean history was made in Pusan, the South Korean government took six months to reveal that the drugs originated in North Korea. No aspect of North Korean behavior disgusts my students more than this.

Fortunately, it seems that the days of the sunshine policy are numbered. It's not certainly not very popular here, although at the same time Koreans don't appreciate Bush telling their president that he is wrong. The latest poll in the Korean presidential race shows a big drop in support for Roh, a sunshine policy advocate. The race is now a dead heat between him and Lee Hoi-chang, a conservative. Lee was the overwhelming front runner before the speedskating incident in Salt Lake City triggered a wave of anti-Americanism. If Lee is elected, he is expected to synchronize Korea's foreign policy with the Bush administration.

Korea will apparently have an American-style two party political system when this election is over. In the past, Korean politics was dominated by three major factions, each of which primarily represented it's home region rather than a distinct ideology. The two minor party candidates this year are both conservative, so I expect that much of their support will migrate to Lee as the election approaches. On the other hand, the U.S. and South Korean soccer teams are scheduled to face each other on June 10, so there is still the possibility that U.S.-South Korean relations will be drawn back into the sports vortex. (U.S. soccer players: Miss that goal! The fate of nations depends on it. )

http://218.145.28.6/w21data/html/news/200205/200205241026.html

defectors always say what their hosts like to hear, that's commonly known.
But Hwang is not telling the Korean government what it wants to hear. Kim Dae-jung is doing his best to restrict Hwang's access to the media and to opposition politicians. Everything he says undermines the sunshine policy.

Their whole propaganda is concentrated on defending their own territory against a possible American aggression, not on "reunification" by force.
NK has talked a little about the possiblity of a U.S. attack since the "axis of evil" speech. But this certainly wasn't an issue when Clinton was president and I don't think North Korean behavior was any better at that time. There was a major war scare in 1994 and people were even hoarding food. Clinton wanted to end his presidency with a trip to North Korea, but cancelled it when he realized that the North was not willing to make any concession that would allow him to portray the trip as a success. NK's policy of opening up and responding to Seoul's initiatives ended the day of the U.S. election in 2000. This suggests that the policy's primary purpose was to influence the election.

NK appearently tells its own people through informal channels to prepare for a march south. Vistors to Pyongyang report that the ordinary North Koreans they meet tell them that there needs to be an invasion of the South soon.


Originally posted by christian
With current military capability, US can reach to S. Korea in 20 mins. Japan Okinawa has a US military base. There is no reason US presence will contribute N. Korea peace talk.
I find it hard to believe that this your sincere opinion. Why would you favor the stationing of U.S. troops in Japan, but not in Korea? Both deployments are for the same purpose -- deterring North Korean aggression. They are two aspects of the same issue. There is probably more opposition to the U.S. base in Okinawa than to any U.S. base in Korea. If Koreans take responsibility for their own defense, Japanese are going start asking what U.S. troops are doing in their country.

The people in S. korea supports US presence, is only minority.
"Any public opinion poll taken in Korea today would show solid support for the continued presence of the USFK [United States Forces in Korea]," according to the Korea Herald, the main English language newspaper in Korea.

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2002/01/23/200201230039.asp

[Morpheus]

Actually, this country would scare me too if it was my neighbour. I did some research on the death penalty in NK. Horrifying

================================================== =================





Former North Korean was 'publicly executed'



The Chosun Ilbo (17.03.2001)/ HRWF International Secretariat (22.03.2001) - Website: http://www.hrwf.net - Email: info@hrwf.net - A former North Korean, who lived in South Korea, traveled to the Chinese-North Korean border in order to take his wife back to the South, was captured and publicly executed by the North Korean authorities.



Yu Tae-jun (31 years old) arrived in South Korea in November of 1998 and lived in Taegu City. In June of last year he traveled to China and was not heard from since. However, in the beginning this year he is known to have been executed in the South Hamgyong Province in North Korea.



It is known that the North Korean government executed many former North Koreans, however this is the first time that the victim has actually been identified. In addition, due to the fact that Mr. Yu was a South Korean citizen, the repercussions for this incident are expected to be large.



Mr. Yu was publicly executed in front of a group of North Korean citizens. It is known that he was charged with going to South Korea and committing treason against the Pyongyang government.



Mr. Yu met his wife at the border of North Korea and China, and was then captured by the North Korean National Security Guard.



Before coming to South Korea, Mr. Yu was the manager of sales at an agency that sold coal. This was a highly sought after and powerful position in North Korea. When he decided to go to South Korea, his wife rejected his proposal to go with him.



It is known that South Korean government officials were aware that the North Korean authorities captured Mr. Yu, however officials in the South have not taken action.



Mr. Yu arrived in South Korea with his five-year-old son, who is presently staying with Mr. Yu’s mother in South Korea.



Mr. Yu’s mother and father were elites who graduated from the Kim Chaek University of Technology (or the Kim Cheak Politechnic Institute). His father was a professor at the National Economic Institute and his mother worked at the Foreign Language Publishing House. His father died early and his mother was forced to take care of her son by herself. Mr. Yu enjoyed reading, especially Tolstoy and Shakespeare, along with other famous works of literature. In North Korea, as a child, he was occasionally able to listen to South Korean radio broadcasts. He thus became aware of the realities of the outside world and from his middle school years his eyes were opened to the deficiencies of the North Korean government.



Those close to him in Taegu said that Mr. Yu was planning to go back for his wife in North Korea.



When Mr. Yu arrived in South Korea his dream was to become a writer. Among former North Koreans in South Korea he was known as a loner.



In October, Ahn Jong-sook, Mr. Yu’s mother was informed by South Korean authorities that her son had been captured by North Korea near the Chinese - North Korean border. Mr. Yu’s mother arrived in South Korea two months after her son.



After the food shortage and the hardships which have arisen due to the difficulties in controlling society in the 1990’s, public executions have increased in North Korea

[Morpheus]

North Korean Escapees: Public Executions Routine in Stalinist Country:
Executions, prison camps and network of informants said to keep the hungry nation together

Pekka Mykkänen, Helsingin Sanomat

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

YANJI, CHINA. Hungry and Stalinist North Korea keeps its' people under firm grip with public executions and a wide network of informants and prison camps, people who escaped from the country to China, human rights organizations and various news publications say. According to the interviews with nine North Korean escapees, the public executions have become routine in their country.

The North Koreans told in the Chinese city of Yanji, that the executed ones are often first beaten up to a near-dead condition, their elbows, knees and ankles are crushed, which after they are tied to a pole and shot before a firing squad.

"Their eyes, hands, middle bodies and feet are tied. Then they shoot them in every place," tells a teenager girl, who says that altogether ten shots are being fired. She estimates to have eye-witnessed 15 executions.

A 30-year-old man tells in another interview situation, that there are nine shots. International Herald Tribune interviewed one year ago a man, who said that for each person there are three soldiers, who all shoot three times - one in the head, the other one in the chest and third one in the stomach. That testimony is in line with the information gathered in Yanji.

All of the interviewed said they had seen several public executions. "At least twenty", a middle-aged woman says. Also children are invited to come and see the executions, the North Koreans say.

"For the first time, I saw the execution from far distance. I got nightmares. But I was told, that if I look nearer, it won't come to my dreams. So, next time I went very close and it helped. I don't see dreams about it any more," explains a woman in her thirties.

North Korea has opened up enormously on the diplomatic front during the past one year and now even the visit of US President seems possible. But US State Secretary Madeleine Albright was heavily criticized last month, when she made no clear mention about the alleged human rights violations during her visit to the country.

Human Rights group Amnesty International said in its' report 1997, that the group believed it had found evidence of at least 23 public executions between 1972-1992. The North Korean government has denied the public executions and claims to use the death sentence only seldom.

Amnesty pressed, that none of the interviews was conducted in South Korea.

There are no reliable estimates of the number of executions in North Korea. South Korean authorities have spoken of hundreds. The number is believed to have grown because of the rising crime due to the severe lack of food in North Korea.

According to different testimonies, the executions have been used as punishments for minor crimes. One North Korean in Yanji tells, that he once saw a group of three executed, because they had stolen a machine from factory.

The public executions are forbidden by international covenants. In North Korea, hundreds and sometimes thousands of people go to see the executions, various sources tell.

There are also a number of unconfirmed reports of cannibals being executed. "In one of the houses in my neighborhood, the mother went crazy because of hunger. She killed her children and invited everyone to come and eat. She was captured and later executed", one North Korean says.

According to the testimonies, before the executions the propaganda machinery goes around and invites people to see the executions, meant to be lessons, over the megaphones.

A South Korean Human Rights group called Citizens' Alliance to Help Political Prisoners in North Korea has collected information on public executions from about hundred defectors that it has interviewed.

"I believe they actually take place", the group's head, Rev. Benjamin Yoon says in his e-mail.

One of the interviewees told, that she had seen an execution on September 26th in Mushan city near the border of China. Altogether 13 people, six of them women, had been shot. "Some of them were anti-revolutionary, some had stolen copper wire and three old women had been selling younger ladies as wives to China", she says.

According to some sources, the atheist North Korea has executed Christians with made-up charges of various crimes. "We have received information that within the past three months eleven Christians have been executed. We have their names and we are investigating the claims. Thousands of Christians have been imprisoned", an American-Korean aid-worker says in Yanji.

"The public executions aim to frighten the people into submission. By making an example of one they warn all to obey," explains Benjamin Yoon.

According to the satellite images and interviews collected by the US and South Korean intelligence, there are twelve large prison camps for about 200 000 political prisoners in North Korea. The country is also estimated to have some 200 smaller camps for regular criminals.

According to some estimates, over 400 000 people have died in the North Korean gulags since 1972.

One method for suppressing people, according to the North Koreans, is the wide network of informants. "You can't trust anybody. Even though your best friend is not an informant, he may one day turn you in, in order to gain a better position for himself," one man says.

According to experts, many North Koreans are critical of their system, but fearing the sentences, there is no real opposition threatening the system. Criticism against the leader Kim Jong-il is a harsh crime that no one dares to commit, the interviewees say.

"He is good. And even though he isn't, we would not say, that he is not," one North Korean formulates.

THE MAIN STORY ENDS HERE

THIS IS SIDEBAR EXPLAINING THE INTERVIEWS:

Lively Stories About Death

Pekka Mykkänen

The nine North Koreans interviewed in Yanji, China, come from five different families and they belong to two separate groups with no connection to each other. In two interview situations, two different Korean language interpreters were used.

Two of the North Koreans said that they had crossed the border one day before the interview, one group had been in China for a week and one family had arrived last year. While describing the executions, the North Koreans often got anxious, they sometimes shouted over each other's voices and they used their hands vividly when trying to show what happens in the executions.

It seems completely unrealistic, that the North Koreans had received instructions, for instance from South Korean aid workers to fabricate the stories about the executions. The South Korean government is often blamed for brainwashing the North Korean defectors, which is why the South Korean information about the situation in North Korea is often thought to be unreliable.

All of the interviewees said that they had seen executions. None of them wanted their names published, since some of them want to return to their homeland and all of them face the risk of being deported by China.

SIDEBAR ENDS HERE

The following text will be attached to a Korean language notice (my paper run the photocopy of the notice), which is said to be a invitation to a public execution.

HEADLINE: Evidence of Public Execution?

The above picture, according to South Korean group Citizens' Alliance to Help Political Prisoners in North Korea, is a photocopy of an announcement about public execution in North Korean city of Hamhung 1992. The group says that it received the notice from a defector who brought the document with him from North Korea.

The text says:

NOTICE

Execution to be held for murderer as follows:

Culprit: Chu Sun-nam, male, 30
Site of Crime: Saphon area, Changhung-ri
Execution time: 15.11. 1992, 11 am
Execution site: Sapho, on the sandy bank under the Yongdae bridge

Security department of Hamhung Municipality

Because of different ways to transliterate Korean, the culprits' name is, according to four different translators, either Chu Sun-nam, Joo Sun-nam, Ju Soon-nam or Cho Soon-nam.

[christian]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by kauffner
[B]
NK leader Kim Jong-il has repeatedly and publicly explained why he doesn't favor "moderation of the regime" and the reason is not the American military presence. This is from his New Year's Day 2000 address to the nation: "Reform and opening up is the fastest way to collapse." He's right, too. What North Koreans believe is so out-of-touch with reality that the regime cannot survive unless it remains closed off from the outside world.

To North Korea, any American presence in Korea is "aggression." NK doesn't build tunnels under the DMZ because it is afraid of U.S. attack. The North Korean regime is one nasty piece of work and you want to give them the thing they want most, apparently just because they want it. Is this not appeasement in the purest form? I am wondering what you would have said if you were at Munich. A totalitarian state needs an enemy to justify its repressive rule. If the U.S. was to withdraw, NK would come up with some other grievence.


Many S. Korea doesn't want US presence. You are just justify an excuse for US presence. Every US GI is in S. KOrea. S. Korean have to pay their tax dollar on it, for buying US weapon.

And you deny the fact, axis of evil is really a scheme for US to rip off S. korea.

"Sunshine policy" is a grotesque name for what amounts to a policy of concealing and denying North Korean misbehavior. Just before the North-South summit in 2000, NK publically executed a would-be defector. Seoul knew, but didn't reveal it for months so as not to spoil the good feelings. At the time of the summit, every major media outlet in South Korea except one (the newspaper Chosun Ilbo) made a formal pledge to participate in the government's policy of downplaying news that might annoy North Korea. When the largest drug bust in Korean history was made in Pusan, the South Korean government took six months to reveal that the drugs originated in North Korea. No aspect of North Korean behavior disgusts my students more than this.

So, It is their domestic problem. What is that to do with US and the world?

So you are saying. If their policy fail. they have to thank the world.

Fortunately, it seems that the days of the sunshine policy are numbered. It's not certainly not very popular here, although at the same time Koreans don't appreciate Bush telling their

Of course, "fortunately outnumbered", will benefit US weapon industry. Any reconcilliation is bad for US. I will not appreciate Bush either, because S. korea is used as a negotiation chip for Bush.

president that he is wrong. The latest poll in the Korean presidential race shows a big drop in support for Roh, a sunshine policy advocate. The race is now a dead heat between him and Lee Hoi-chang, a conservative. Lee was the overwhelming front runner before the speedskating incident in Salt Lake City triggered a wave of anti-Americanism. If Lee is elected, he is expected to synchronize Korea's foreign policy with the Bush administration.

It is sad, isn't ? the sunshine policy fail. Of course, US doesn't support the sunshine policy when Bush take over the adminstration. Where were you at that time?
Any negotiation between S. korea and N. korea must have the support of US. Did you forget about this? When Clinton is in the adminstation, he supports the S. korean policy. Naturally, the policy fail, because the new US adminstration doesn't declare his support. The S. Korean president take the blame.

Well. Good for US, they finally have S. korean on the leash.



Korea will apparently have an American-style two party political system when this election is over. In the past, Korean politics was dominated by three major factions, each of which primarily represented it's home region rather than a distinct ideology. The two minor party candidates this year are both conservative, so I expect that much of their support will migrate to Lee as the election approaches. On the other hand, the U.S. and South Korean soccer teams are scheduled to face each other on June 10, so there is still the possibility that U.S.-South Korean relations will be drawn back into the sports vortex. (U.S. soccer players: Miss that goal! The fate of nations depends on it. )

http://218.145.28.6/w21data/html/news/200205/200205241026.html


But Hwang is not telling the Korean government what it wants to hear. Kim Dae-jung is doing his best to restrict Hwang's access to the media and to opposition politicians. Everything he says undermines the sunshine policy.

NK has talked a little about the possiblity of a U.S. attack since the "axis of evil" speech. But this certainly wasn't an issue when Clinton was president and I don't think North Korean behavior was any better at that time.

Where were you? What about the Albright visit? Afterwards, the S. korea talk about the Rail road building.

There was a major war scare in 1994 and people were even hoarding food. Clinton wanted to end his presidency with a trip to North Korea, but cancelled it when he realized that the North was not willing to make any concession that would allow him to portray the trip as a success. NK's policy of opening up and responding to Seoul's initiatives ended the day of the U.S. election in 2000. This suggests that the policy's primary purpose was to influence the election.

NK appearently tells its own people through informal channels to prepare for a march south. Vistors to Pyongyang report that the ordinary North Koreans they meet tell them that there needs to be an invasion of the South soon.

BS. Do you think China will allow that? It will be commiting suicide for the n. korean leadership.

I find it hard to believe that this your sincere opinion. Why would you favor the stationing of U.S. troops in Japan, but not in Korea? Both deployments are for the same purpose -- deterring North Korean aggression. They are two aspects of the same issue. There is probably more opposition to the U.S. base in Okinawa than to any U.S. base in Korea. If Koreans take responsibility for their own defense, Japanese are going start asking what U.S. troops are doing in their country.

Yes. You got it. If S. Korea US troops withdrawl. Japan will ask the withdrawl of Okinawa. US will lose their territoriol water. :D Damn!

The reason of the evil threat of China is that reason.

"Any public opinion poll taken in Korea today would show solid support for the continued presence of the USFK [United States Forces in Korea]," according to the Korea Herald, the main English language newspaper in Korea.

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2002/01/23/200201230039.asp

This is not a poll. ha ha.


:D
This is poll for S. Korea investment in China.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2002/05/17/200205170035.asp

[christian]

kauffner,
Your opinion is completely pro-USA. Your facts are completely pro-US. Your opinion is not very objective. I take it as a US neo-imperialist.

The correct description of US- Korean relationship.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2000/08/08/200008080005.asp

The first consists of ideologues who have always opposed the United States and the presence of U.S. troops. In their view, America is responsible for the division of the country and the outbreak of the Korean War.

They consider U.S. troops in Korea an "occupying" force that should be removed with all haste and at all cost. They seek every opportunity to incite anti-American sentiment.

Those in the second group would like to see American troops removed not so much for ideological reasons, as because they have been persuaded that the security situation no longer requires the hosting of foreign troops.

For them, the North-South Korean summit and the assurance of President Kim that they need not worry about another war in Korea confirm the conclusion that the North Korean military threat is simply a concoction to justify continued stationing of U.S. troops in the South.

The third category consists of people who believe that U.S. troops are still needed for security as well as for diplomatic and economic reasons.

However, they are convinced that American troops are in Korea to serve the America's own interests, for example to check China and bolster the U.S. troop presence in Japan.

They believe U.S. troops will stay in Korea despite the protests. So they believe it is safe to push the United States as far and hard as possible.

The fourth group is more concerned with immediate practical issues. They have no illusions about peace or an indefinite troop presence on the Korean Peninsula.

But they are concerned with the existing SOFA agreement; the slowness of verifying wartime atrocities; the American use of bombing ranges in Korea, and what they consider to be the general American insensitivity in dealing with Korea and the Koreans.

For them, dealing with these problems in a constructive way now is necessary to secure political support for maintaining a strong alliance with the United States.

In all this discussion there is a paradox, however. While in Europe, U.S. troops remain even while the Soviet threat waned, in Korea their presence is increasingly questioned when the threat has not diminished.

Of the four outlooks described above, it is people in the second and third categories who might be in for some surprises.

First, the assessment of an improved security situation is at best premature. The fact is, the summit has not put a dent in North Korea's military power and the potential for renewed hostilities on the Korean peninsula remains.

The joint summit declaration scarcely touched on peace and security issues. Neither was security on the agenda of the first ministerial level meeting between the North and South after the summit.

It is clear that Pyongyang wants to discuss security matters last, if at all.

Second, those who believe that the United States will keep its troops in Korea no matter what may also be in for surprise. It will be difficult for the U.S. administration to justify the troops if the public and the Congress, alarmed by the rising anti-Americanism in Korea, decide that it is time to withdraw.

When the United States was asked by the Philippine parliament to close its bases, they promptly evacuated, catching many by surprise. The notion that the Untied States needs to keep its troops in Korea in order to maintain troops in Japan may have lost its validity.

Despite problems and protests in Okinawa, the Japanese government and people are doing everything - from financing to legal arrangements - to keep American troops in Japan.

In fact, the withdrawal of American troops from Korea could make Japan even more determined to keep them in Japan. In order for South Korea and the United States to keep their alliance robust and lasting, the respective governments must take an active role.

For Seoul, it would be unwise to present an excessively rosy picture of the security situation when peace is not yet even budding. North Korea is not likely to give up easily what it considers to be its ace in dealing with the rest of the world - weapons of mass destruction, especially missiles.

It would be unsafe to assume that the growing manifestation of anti-Americanism in South Korea is only a passing phenomenon. Fed with misleading information and unrealistic expectations, it may reach a point where events could become uncontrollable.

Thus the South Korean government must make people acutely aware that a strong alliance with the United States is a necessary element not only for security but also for economic prosperity, as well as for the continued improvement in relations with North Korea.

The U.S. government, for its part, has to recognize that it is facing a situation quite different from the days of the Cold War and heightened North-South confrontation. It is now dealing with a people and society that have changed considerably from the post-Korean War days when SOFA was first adopted.

It has to recognize that a majority of South Koreans were born after the end of the war. They care little and know less about why the Americans came to fight half a century ago. Nor do they grasp the sacrifice the United States made so that today they are able to live in peace in the free and affluent society that they are so proud of.

The United States has to factor in the feelings of a society that has undergone a generational change, has matured in many ways, and has become more confident and more assertive.

This is the challenge we face. The perception of a diminished North Korean threat is not grounds to jettison the ROK-U.S. alliance that has proved so invaluable. The anti-American protests are a wake-up call. Our bilateral relationship is entering a time of complex and difficult challenges that require enhanced nurturing and protection, sooner rather than later.

[christian]

Kauffner,

This is the real situation in Korea.

It looks like 3/4 don't like US presence. The old generation of Korean is dead. The new generation doesn't give a damn about cold war. Your evil china threat theory doesn't scare S. korean investment. Your evil threat of N. Korea doesn't scare many S. korean also. :p

[kauffner]

christian: The article you posted is about "rising anti-Americanism" in Korea back in 2000. That was right after the North-South summit and lasted for about two months. Then the issue dissappeared until the speedskating incident in Salt Lake City in February.

Originally posted by christian
The new generation doesn't give a damn about cold war.
It is the anti-Americans who are nostalgic for the Cold War. They build up every new threat from Bin Laden and Saddam to China and the EU into a new Soviet Union that they hope will be powerful enough to limit American freedom of action. The sunshine policy is modeled on the "Ostpolitik" policy followed by West German Chancellor Willy Brandt in the early 1970s. That is to say, it is a retread of a Cold War era policy.

Your evil china threat theory doesn't scare S. korean investment.
South Korean companies set up factories in China for the same reason U.S. companies set up factories in Mexico, to take advantage of low wage labor. I don't see what point you are trying to make by bringing it up.

My "China threat theory"? I think China is all bark and no bite. You're the one who seems to think China is the verge of taking over the world, The North Korean regime will collapse like East Germany in a few years and Taiwan will declare independence at some point. There is nothing China can do about it, especially after the U.S. has an ABM system in place. China itself will eventually experience a recession and then the communist regime there will be fighting for its own survival.

[christian]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by kauffner
[B]christian: The article you posted is about "rising anti-Americanism" in Korea back in 2000. That was right after the North-South summit and lasted for about two months. Then the issue dissappeared until the speedskating incident in Salt Lake City in February.

So, you are denying the articile. The article is an expression of four catergories s. korea. That is the view of S. korean perspective. It is not a poll, which has to update in time.
It is the anti-Americans who are nostalgic for the Cold War. They build up every new threat from Bin Laden and Saddam to China and the EU into a new Soviet Union that they hope will be powerful enough to limit American freedom of action. The sunshine policy is modeled on the "Ostpolitik" policy followed by West German Chancellor Willy Brandt in the early 1970s. That is to say, it is a retread of a Cold War era policy.

BS. "Limiting american action" , American airforce can reach anywhere any place in 13 hours.

Yeah right. Retreat to cold war era. That what you want. So, your weapon industry can make a big $$$$, which sacrifice the human life.

The current president have the support of Clinton adminstration. The bush adminstration is dominated by weapon industry. When Bush is in office for four months. HE invites the presdient of s. korea. He told the S. korea specifically, to rejects any sun shine policy implementation. The reason the sunshine policy is failed, because of bush "hawky" adminstration.

Stop telling me pro-US point of view. I am living in asia also.
South Korean companies set up factories in China for the same reason U.S. companies set up factories in Mexico, to take advantage of low wage labor. I don't see what point you are trying to make by bringing it up.

Would you invest in Soviet Union? If US is going to attack an Soviet Union.

My "China threat theory"? I think China is all bark and no bite. You're the one who seems to think China is the verge of taking over the world, The North Korean regime will collapse like East Germany in a few years, Taiwan will declare independence at some point. There is nothing China can do about it, especially after the U.S. has an ABM system in place. China itself will eventually experience a recession and then the communist regime there will be fighting for its own survival.

Mr. Conquer American,
Well. I rather bark with no bite, than bark and bite.
Who is bark and bit after all? China or US?
Vietnam, afghastan, Panama, Haiti, lybia, Iraq, Iran, etc
These action is no difference than Julius Caesar. Who is taking over the world? Our military never goes beyond the east pacific ocean. US occupation is killing thousands of civilian in Panama.
They always find some moral high ground to justify their action.

We only occupy tibets. I wouldn't even call it occupation. The map of tibet is within china for 200 years. So, it is with Taiwan.

You don't know anything about the situation in Taiwan. ONly 30% chinese supports independance. There are 60% supports cross strait relationship.

Eventhough, the pro-independance party is in power. The president of Taiwan needs 60% approval of Taiwanese people for independance. About 70% of Taiwanese is coming from the mainland china, during the civil war in 1940's.

I guess you want chinese kills chinese. So, your weapon industry will benefits. Many taiwanese don't think so. They see the example of N. korea and S. korea. They know what the US does.

The approval rating of current government is 30%. Try harder USA.

[Morpheus]

Anyway Christian you're right.

The US can always come up with the argument that they attack a state to protect 'democracy' (means getting a president for whom you didn't vote :D). The "coalition forces" (= the United States + some Brits who think the UK still is an empire, or at least hope it) are not what the world or the international community thinks.

There's no doubt that the US is imperialisic and greedy. They have such a powerful military, that they can bomb a country within 24 hours, which other nation can do this.

Bush = oil = imperialism = war = retalliation = 911.

[Mediocrates]

screw the broad brush and use a spray gun and a paint roller

[Mediocrates]

and don't let facts or logic or reasoning stand in your way

[christian]

Originally posted by Morpheus
Anyway Christian you're right.

The US can always come up with the argument that they attack a state to protect 'democracy' (means getting a president for whom you didn't vote :D). The "coalition forces" (= the United States + some Brits who think the UK still is an empire, or at least hope it) are not what the world or the international community thinks.

There's no doubt that the US is imperialisic and greedy. They have such a powerful military, that they can bomb a country within 24 hours, which other nation can do this.

Bush = oil = imperialism = war = retalliation = 911.

It looks like US will preoccupied with their war in Iraq next year. The European gave in. The current rate of destruction, is causing more terrorism. American and Brits will never have peace.

Of course, the imperialist bush will get a war, a year before the election. After the next year war on Iraq, the arabs will united again, against Israel and US. Islam will be a religion against imperialism. The islamicism is much more dangerous than the communism. communism is cold and calculative. Islam is a religion not theorcy.

Looks like US will have their wish for another cold war. This is much more dangerous and harder to defend. We are talking about human religion here.

[Pushtak18]

China is split with Israel...

It needs alot of support from the Arab world, but Israel is a good ally to it. They share technological information and do business very well.


I think the China has been very critical to Israel, but its normal, just like norway or sweden would have acted.

There kinda angry that Israel did not sell them that Phalphcon airplane, for 2 billion dollars, due to US pressure but hopefully that thing will be dettered and relations would go on!

[takeo]

i agree mostly with christian

if there is someone wishing to return to the good old days of the cold war, it's for sure the bush-administration, most of them cold war-veterans from the reagan administration. The speech about the axis of evil reminds me somewhat of the "empire of evil"-speech, inspiration isn't the best quality of bush apparently...
Germany's sunshine policy may be in the cold-war but prooved to be prosperous for Western germany, it was actually in defiance of the cold war mentality and more or less normal relations between the two germany's were established, which was certainly more positive for western Germany than for eastern germany (influx of western ideas in the system which undermined the ideology that was not prepared to deal with it as china did). the same was true for all eastern European systems, as well the Soviet-union after Gorbatchov. By blocking a country however you will create a situation as with Cuba, where nothing at changes.
The whole big thing about the Soviet-union being an evil empire ready to invade the west and take over the world, the domino-theory, it all prooved to be BS, however lucrative BS for the american weapons-industry. now the new treat are impoverished little countries as North korea or Iraq who are able to erase the us from the map, and let's not forget of course the dangerous cuban cigars ...(they are dangerous for health, so that's maybe why the under-minister called cuba a possible centre of bio-weapons)

I don't know about korean support for the US but it for sure seems that many Koreans don't want you there, whatever sports-incidents you may mention as the reason for this...

"My "China threat theory"? I think China is all bark and no bite. You're the one who seems to think China is the verge of taking over the world, The North Korean regime will collapse like East Germany in a few years and Taiwan will declare independence at some point. There is nothing China can do about it, especially after the U.S. has an ABM system in place. China itself will eventually experience a recession and then the communist regime there will be fighting for its own survival"

It's not so sure the korean regime will collapse, they said that in 1990 and after the death of kim il sung and the extremely serious economic problems in the 90's as well. They all survived it, so any new american pressure will have no consequences.
China can do a lot, it has enough weapons to make the us look like ground-zero, it will for sure defend north-korea, and in case taiwan declares independance (which is unlikely i think) china will certainly take some steps, it is prooven in the past that chinese retorics usually are followed by hard deeds (on the contrary to the russians). maybe invasion, but economic sanctions (maybe giving a choice between taiwan and mainland china to companies...) are a possibility as well.
There is no sign either China will face recession in the future, it was the only country not affected by the asian economic crisis which broke the bones of the "Asian tigers", because of its mixed system.

[takeo]

"NK leader Kim Jong-il has repeatedly and publicly explained why he doesn't favor "moderation of the regime" and the reason is not the American military presence. This is from his New Year's Day 2000 address to the nation: "Reform and opening up is the fastest way to collapse." He's right, too. What North Koreans believe is so out-of-touch with reality that the regime cannot survive unless it remains closed off from the outside world. "

Well, you might be wrong, last year kim yong-il travelled to Shangai and was reported to be full of admiration for the chinese economic wonders...
by the way this regime survived the worst economic recession in short time ever, the death of its leader and stop of russian aid against all expectations, so now that things are starting to go a little better and relations with china and russia and southkorea are much improoving the only danger of the regime could be an influx of western ideas not controlled by the regime, certainly the us hard policy on north-korea will not improove the influx of western ideas in North-korea...


"To North Korea, any American presence in Korea is "aggression." NK doesn't build tunnels under the DMZ because it is afraid of U.S. attack. The North Korean regime is one nasty piece of work and you want to give them the thing they want most, apparently just because they want it. Is this not appeasement in the purest form? I am wondering what you would have said if you were at Munich. A totalitarian state needs an enemy to justify its repressive rule. If the U.S. was to withdraw, NK would come up with some other grievence. "

North-korea is not Germany, it is much poorer and smaller and not really a treath to its neighbours who are military superior, Munich was wrong because it gave czech republic and austria to the Germans, yet north-korea ain't getting nothing except some food-relief. The justification of the north-regime (among others) has been for many years indeed us-presence in the south, so the removal of those forces would mean a weakening/ or moderation of the regime. As said south korea can deal with the north, they don't need american assistance as in the 50's.

""Sunshine policy" is a grotesque name for what amounts to a policy of concealing and denying North Korean misbehavior. Just before the North-South summit in 2000, NK publically executed a would-be defector. Seoul knew, but didn't reveal it for months so as not to spoil the good feelings. At the time of the summit, every major media outlet in South Korea except one (the newspaper Chosun Ilbo) made a formal pledge to participate in the government's policy of downplaying news that might annoy North Korea. When the largest drug bust in Korean history was made in Pusan, the South Korean government took six months to reveal that the drugs originated in North Korea. No aspect of North Korean behavior disgusts my students more than this. "

Again, who are you (or Bush) to criticise the policy of the elected president of South Korea to search peace with its neighbour.
us-media is also downplaying news, for example during the kosovo-crisis. You didn't made one essential argument to sustain your criticism.


"Fortunately, it seems that the days of the sunshine policy are numbered. It's not certainly not very popular here, although at the same time Koreans don't appreciate Bush telling their president that he is wrong. The latest poll in the Korean presidential race shows a big drop in support for Roh, a sunshine policy advocate. The race is now a dead heat between him and Lee Hoi-chang, a conservative. Lee was the overwhelming front runner before the speedskating incident in Salt Lake City triggered a wave of anti-Americanism. If Lee is elected, he is expected to synchronize Korea's foreign policy with the Bush administration. "

let's hope this will not happen, it would mean an end to all new openings between the two korea's and a new freezing cold war situation for years to come. actually i think somehow the regime in the North would feel comfortable with this scenario as well, so they don't have to open up.




"NK has talked a little about the possiblity of a U.S. attack since the "axis of evil" speech. But this certainly wasn't an issue when Clinton was president and I don't think North Korean behavior was any better at that time. There was a major war scare in 1994 and people were even hoarding food. Clinton wanted to end his presidency with a trip to North Korea, but cancelled it when he realized that the North was not willing to make any concession that would allow him to portray the trip as a success. NK's policy of opening up and responding to Seoul's initiatives ended the day of the U.S. election in 2000. This suggests that the policy's primary purpose was to influence the election. "

are you seriously suggesting kim yong il wanted to support the reelection of Clinton? give me a beak please
North korea however allowed under clinton many encounters with the southkorean president, family-reunions, and plans were made to open up the border, and most importantly, inspection of its nuclear facilities, all of which would have never happened if Bush was there at the time with his "axis of evil" speech.



"NK appearently tells its own people through informal channels to prepare for a march south. Vistors to Pyongyang report that the ordinary North Koreans they meet tell them that there needs to be an invasion of the South soon. "

that is new to me and doesn't seem to be reliable information.

[christian]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by takeo


It's not so sure the korean regime will collapse, they said that in 1990 and after the death of kim il sung and the extremely serious economic problems in the 90's as well. They all survived it, so any new american pressure will have no consequences.
China can do a lot, it has enough weapons to make the us look like ground-zero, it will for sure defend north-korea, and in case taiwan declares independance (which is unlikely i think) china will certainly take some steps, it is prooven in the past that chinese retorics usually are followed by hard deeds (on the contrary to the russians). maybe invasion, but economic sanctions (maybe giving a choice between taiwan and mainland china to companies...) are a possibility as well.
There is no sign either China will face recession in the future, it was the only country not affected by the asian economic crisis which broke the bones of the "Asian tigers", because of its mixed system.

Our economy will be as big as US in 2007.
http://www.megastories.com/china/economy/economy.htm

[Mediocrates]

...Taiwan and the PRC will (someday) join....

"By culture and economical and diplomatic bonds they will join. It might take time and the rate of development in china is probably the issue. One thing that strikes me when speaking with people living in HK is the hatred and suspision against the japanese. I understand the anger but I didnt know it was so common, and definitely not in HK. So the japanese position in politics in the region could probably matter alot."


What you describe is the general EU/Asian geopoltical trend of supranationalization where the only strong national structures are multinational firms and brands where the only national identity is formed by an alliegance to corporate entities and economics. In the next 3 decades you will probably see an EU like body for most of Asia as well. Poltically it will be formed along the lines of Singapore.