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Womble
03-07-2005, 10:28 PM
A respectable team of sociologists and statisticians challenges the popular assumption that the combined Palestinian and Israeli Arab population grows is soon to exceed the Jewish Israeli population growth.

http://www.pademographics.com

THE MILLION-AND-A-HALF PERSON GAP

The assumption that Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza pose a demographic threat to Israel has to be radically revised. The 2004 Palestinian-Arab population was closer to 2.4 million than to the 3.8 million reported by Palestinian Authority (PA) officials. These findings should have a significant impact on politicians, policy makers and international aid agencies.

The million-and-a-half person gap occurred because the PA numbers are based on Palestine Bureau of Statistics (PBS) 1997 projections, not on actual population counts. The PBS used the PA’s official 1997 census as a base population and assumed the population would grow at 4 to 5% a year, one of the highest growth rates in the world. PA Ministry of Health birth data and actual border entry/exit data, confirm that the PBS expectations were not met in any year between 1997 and 2004. There were dramatically fewer births and lower fertility rates, and instead of immigration, the West Bank and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration. When the PBS incorrect assumptions are applied over many years, the error in population forecast compounds exponentially.

Fewer births: PA Ministry of Health birth reports were substantially lower than the number predicted by the PBS.
Lower Fertility Rates: Palestinian fertility rates declined from the mid-90’s through 2003, according to PA Ministry of Health, consistent with the trend occurring in other Middle Eastern Arab societies.
Net Emigration: Instead of the large immigration originally projected by the PA, the West BAnk and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration averaging 10,000 a year.
Double Counting: 210,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are already counted in Israel’s population survey were included in the PA survey.
Inclusion of non-residents: Palestinians with IDs living abroad for over one year were included in the PA Census & Projection.
Internal migration: 150,000 PA Arabs who have legally relocated to Israel since 1993 are still counted by the PA.
Retrospective Alterations of Recorded Birth data.


The PA's Central Election Commission press release of October 14 2004 acknowledged that the number of eligible voters living in the West Bank and Gaza was only 1.3 million.

The resident population in January 2004 was 2.4 million: 1.35 million in the West Bank and 1.07 million in Gaza in January 2004.


Arab Population

The claim that Jews will become a minority in the region are incorrect. Since 1967, Jews have maintained their 60% majority in Israel, West Bank and Gaza and since 1990, the Jewish population has grown by 2.5% a year, only a slight fraction below the growth rate in the West Bank. The declines in Palestinian Arab growth rates and the vitality of Jewish growth rates which are the highest among Western democracies, will preserve this ratio.

The Israeli Arab growth rate of 3.1% was augmented by the influx of 150,000 Arabs from the West Bank and Gaza. The Israeli Arab natural rate of increase remained at 2.1%. Additionally, many observers have misidentified all non-Jews as "Palestinian Arabs." Many groups, such as the Druze and non-Jewish immigrants, identify themselves as Israelis, not as Arabs. Israel is becoming more multicultural not more Arab.[/i]

golani
03-08-2005, 07:29 AM
A respectable team of sociologists and statisticians challenges the popular assumption that the combined Palestinian and Israeli Arab population grows is soon to exceed the Jewish Israeli population growth.

http://www.pademographics.com

THE MILLION-AND-A-HALF PERSON GAP

The assumption that Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza pose a demographic threat to Israel has to be radically revised. The 2004 Palestinian-Arab population was closer to 2.4 million than to the 3.8 million reported by Palestinian Authority (PA) officials. These findings should have a significant impact on politicians, policy makers and international aid agencies.

The million-and-a-half person gap occurred because the PA numbers are based on Palestine Bureau of Statistics (PBS) 1997 projections, not on actual population counts. The PBS used the PA’s official 1997 census as a base population and assumed the population would grow at 4 to 5% a year, one of the highest growth rates in the world. PA Ministry of Health birth data and actual border entry/exit data, confirm that the PBS expectations were not met in any year between 1997 and 2004. There were dramatically fewer births and lower fertility rates, and instead of immigration, the West Bank and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration. When the PBS incorrect assumptions are applied over many years, the error in population forecast compounds exponentially.

Fewer births: PA Ministry of Health birth reports were substantially lower than the number predicted by the PBS.
Lower Fertility Rates: Palestinian fertility rates declined from the mid-90’s through 2003, according to PA Ministry of Health, consistent with the trend occurring in other Middle Eastern Arab societies.
Net Emigration: Instead of the large immigration originally projected by the PA, the West BAnk and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration averaging 10,000 a year.
Double Counting: 210,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are already counted in Israel’s population survey were included in the PA survey.
Inclusion of non-residents: Palestinians with IDs living abroad for over one year were included in the PA Census & Projection.
Internal migration: 150,000 PA Arabs who have legally relocated to Israel since 1993 are still counted by the PA.
Retrospective Alterations of Recorded Birth data.


The PA's Central Election Commission press release of October 14 2004 acknowledged that the number of eligible voters living in the West Bank and Gaza was only 1.3 million.

The resident population in January 2004 was 2.4 million: 1.35 million in the West Bank and 1.07 million in Gaza in January 2004.


Arab Population

The claim that Jews will become a minority in the region are incorrect. Since 1967, Jews have maintained their 60% majority in Israel, West Bank and Gaza and since 1990, the Jewish population has grown by 2.5% a year, only a slight fraction below the growth rate in the West Bank. The declines in Palestinian Arab growth rates and the vitality of Jewish growth rates which are the highest among Western democracies, will preserve this ratio.

The Israeli Arab growth rate of 3.1% was augmented by the influx of 150,000 Arabs from the West Bank and Gaza. The Israeli Arab natural rate of increase remained at 2.1%. Additionally, many observers have misidentified all non-Jews as "Palestinian Arabs." Many groups, such as the Druze and non-Jewish immigrants, identify themselves as Israelis, not as Arabs. Israel is becoming more multicultural not more Arab.[/i]


Good news, indeed :cool:

Mira
03-08-2005, 07:40 AM
How many do you get when you add the people living in Jordan and Lebanon?

Toga
03-08-2005, 07:58 AM
It looks like both the Israeli and American governments created a fear in the Jewish population of Israel and her supporters in the US to advance the defeatest agenda and now the truth is coming out. A partial divorce with the Palestinian Arabs is not a choice but a necessity and a matter of survival even if the Jews of Israel cannot fully divorce the Palestinian Arabs (20% of Israel is Palestinian Arab). The Israeli government must do whatever it can to distance itself from those who seek the destruction of the Jewish state but adopting the defeatest attitude and scaring the Jewish population may be just as dangerous.

Womble
03-08-2005, 12:47 PM
How many do you get when you add the people living in Jordan and Lebanon?
Umm why should we?

prof k
04-10-2005, 03:42 PM
Why did they not address the Fafo study which clearly indicates (and the PBS has revised estimates based upon it) that the population in the POT will still be above 4 million, using high OR low growth rates?

http://www.fafo.no/pub/rapp/433/433.pdf

TDidier
04-11-2005, 10:28 AM
Good news, indeed :cool:

Hi, Dr.

Funny post.

I remember a conversation when you where explaining that France (62.000.000) was a lost nation with 4-5.000.000 arabs (all muslims are not arabs), and now you are enjoying to learn that Israel (6.000.000) was a safe country with 4.000.000 arabs in their dominion...

Aren't you depressive (a bit), to have so differents views in a so short time?
;)

golani
04-11-2005, 01:10 PM
Hi, Dr.

Funny post.

I remember a conversation when you where explaining that France (62.000.000) was a lost nation with 4-5.000.000 arabs (all muslims are not arabs), and now you are enjoying to learn that Israel (6.000.000) was a safe country with 4.000.000 arabs in their dominion...

Aren't you depressive (a bit), to have so differents views in a so short time?
;)

hi dhimmi,

5 millions muslims in france????
Don t indulge so much red wine...(10 millions at least...)
10 millions of freeench citizens and 20 millions in 2020,we gonna see who will be depressive,you will be prozac addicted

4.000.000 arabs in their dominion?? where??

golani
04-11-2005, 01:16 PM
Hi, Dr.

Funny post.

I remember a conversation when you where explaining that France (62.000.000) was a lost nation with 4-5.000.000 arabs (all muslims are not arabs), and now you are enjoying to learn that Israel (6.000.000) was a safe country with 4.000.000 arabs in their dominion...

Aren't you depressive (a bit), to have so differents views in a so short time?
;)

hi dhimmi,

5 millions muslims in france????
Don t indulge so much red wine...(10 millions at least...)
10 millions of freeench citizens and 20 millions in 2020,we gonna see who will be depressive,you will be prozac addicted

4.000.000 arabs in their dominion?? where??
In any case,if they dont behave properly, we ,the dirty jews ,,will transfer them to their satanic cult brethren

They alredy are making in their pants,frightened to lose all their social benefits
Even the palis who hate us so much,try to settle on the western side of the security fence to keep on these benefits
Get your depression for yourself,the rate of depressive patients is much higher in fraaance than in israel despite all their problems
am israel hai,

Dr golani

TDidier
04-11-2005, 01:34 PM
Hi, Dr Ardenni.

http://www.israelforum.com/board/showthread.php?t=4077&page=4&pp=15

But the relation between the garbage we heard about France islamisation and this case of number manipulation to proove something or the reverse (in Israel) is clear.

Ps. I spoke about arabs (closer to 4.000.000 than to 5.000.000).


hi dhimmi,

5 millions muslims in france????
Don t indulge so much red wine...(10 millions at least...)
10 millions of freeench citizens and 20 millions in 2020,we gonna see who will be depressive,you will be prozac addicted

4.000.000 arabs in their dominion?? where??
In any case,if they dont behave properly, we ,the dirty jews ,,will transfer them to their satanic cult brethren

They alredy are making in their pants,frightened to lose all their social benefits
Even the palis who hate us so much,try to settle on the western side of the security fence to keep on these benefits
Get your depression for yourself,the rate of depressive patients is much higher in fraaance than in israel despite all their problems
am israel hai,

Dr golani

golani
04-11-2005, 01:43 PM
Hi, Dr Ardenni.

http://www.israelforum.com/board/showthread.php?t=4077&page=4&pp=15

But the relation between the garbage we heard about France islamisation and this case of number manipulation to proove something or the reverse (in Israel) is clear.

Ps. I spoke about arabs (closer to 4.000.000 than to 5.000.000).

By the way,I was overoptimistic

Given uncle jaacques(from cantal) to admit turkey in eu,it will be still much quicker...


Jews are paranoid

Sure ,a little bit but we have some excuses and maybe a little skill for foresigntness :cool:

MGB8
04-11-2005, 07:04 PM
Because the FAFO numbers are straight out of the Flawed Pal Arab Beurea.

TDidier
04-12-2005, 03:41 AM
I drove you back to your own statement in this thread: 6.000.000 (20% arabs) Israeli with 4.000.000 arabs pal : nice, cool, good news. :cool:

The question is just to apply the same solutions to same problems...


By the way,I was overoptimistic

Given uncle jaacques(from cantal) to admit turkey in eu,it will be still much quicker...


Jews are paranoid

Sure ,a little bit but we have some excuses and maybe a little skill for foresigntness :cool:

allah akbaar
04-12-2005, 03:49 AM
Hi, Dr.

Funny post.

I remember a conversation when you where explaining that France (62.000.000) was a lost nation with 4-5.000.000 arabs (all muslims are not arabs), and now you are enjoying to learn that Israel (6.000.000) was a safe country with 4.000.000 arabs in their dominion...

Aren't you depressive (a bit), to have so differents views in a so short time?
;)

:confused: well me too ..not only u ..

Static
04-12-2005, 12:50 PM
Why did they not address the Fafo study which clearly indicates (and the PBS has revised estimates based upon it) that the population in the POT will still be above 4 million, using high OR low growth rates?

http://www.fafo.no/pub/rapp/433/433.pdf

Interesting.

Honestly, articles like both of these are highly depressing. Why does it matter which population will exceed the other?

(Yes, that's a rhetorical question. I know the answer, but it still boggles the mind...)

prof k
04-12-2005, 01:13 PM
Certainly, (as someone who researches/writes) on demographic trends I find it INCREDIBLY frustrating to sort the 'political' from the 'factual'.
There is no denying that both sides attempt to politicize the issue of fertility rates/growth trends....the Palestinian side for reasons of subsidy from the UN as well as underpinnings for the argument for autonomy (which really needs no justification, imho) and the Israeli side to diminish the 'claim' the PA is making for land....Frankly, I see it (the TRUE census) as a problem with no solution unless we line people up and PHYSICALLY count them in the OT of WB and Gaza. I only posted that study here to get others' comments on their take. My understanding is that the FAFO study came out before the AEI (TOTALLY biased org and unabashed about their stance on the matter) study and found it curious that AEI did not acknowledge it. To say that the study is flawed because they use the PA numbers is somewhat curious particularly when their numbers are not terribly different than the CIA WFB and the US Census Bureau.....it would beg the question that if the US was so 'gung ho' in support of the Israeli position against the PA on Westbank and Gaza, why don't the numbers support the Israeli position on demographics?
As I said, i am in the middle of doing some research for a paper i am writing for a PhD class on Demography and policy and it is VERY frustrating to see all the different data and KNOW that it is very likely tainted by politics, irrespective of the source.
Just posing a question here...not trying to start an argument, btw.

MGB8
04-12-2005, 01:22 PM
What does the CIA or US Census Beaurau know about the WB and Gaza? Where do you think THEIR numbers come from.

The issue is simple. There were certain things that were wrong with the Pal Arab census numbers - double counting, or counting people who had left, etc. etc. These make the numbers and projections unreliable.

That really has no major practical effect. Whether the issue of Pal Arab sovereignty on the WB and Gaza still comes down to four options: Autonomy Plus (doesn't seem like a realistic option anymore, but was Rabin's option), Two State solution, One state solution (even 2.8 million more Arabs into Israel would doom the Jewish state in the long run, not to mention any Arabs who wanted/were able to return), or 1 state solution plus transfer of Arabs to existing Arab state (unlikely and problematic.)

All it does is change the date by which a one state solution w/out transfer would destroy the Jewish state, pushing it back a decade or two.

Oh, and Israel was using the flawed numbers, too, nor is the US as "gung-ho" as you suggest. The US is balancing its Arab and Israeli interests.

Mediocrates
04-12-2005, 01:43 PM
Numbers are a tool. They are used to demonstrate that this claim or that one is more or better. It's nothing but the politically correct version of might makes right for people who are too cowardly to admit that. The Palestinians want to paint their situation as inevitable so there is no reason to fight it. Whether it's true or not is not the point.

prof k
04-12-2005, 02:03 PM
What does the CIA or US Census Beaurau know about the WB and Gaza? Where do you think THEIR numbers come from.

They compile there OWN data. For example, their figures are as follow for 1967. Now I don't know if you understand actuarial science or not, but based upon THEIR OWN data, they can project their OWN figures out without relying on the PA.
Table 058. Population by Religious Group and Sex
Gaza Strip/1967

Total Total, all religious groups 389702 Total Moslem 385644
Total Christian 2543 Total Others 1515

West Bank/1967

Total Total, all religious groups 664494
Total Moslem 619738
Total Christian 40416
Total Unknown 4340
--------- --------------- ---------------
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base.

That said, here are the LATEST figures.

FOR BOTH
GAZA+STRIP/2005
BOTH MALE FEMALE M/F ratio
Total, all ages 1,376,289 700,149 676,140 103.6
0- 19 821,546 420,843 400,703 105.0
20- 64 518,820 264,270 254,550 103.8
65+ 35,923 15,036 20,887 72.0

WEST+BANK/2005

Total, all ages 2,385,615 1,214,610 1,171,005 103.7
0- 19 1,286,203 658,946 627,257 105.1
20- 64 1,017,733 520,861 496,872 104.8
65+ 81,679 34,803 46,876 74.2


According the the PCBS, MIDYEAR population looks like this:
West bank population is 2,372,216.
Gaza 1,389,789

Now, obviously the US DID NOT get its numbers from PA or they would be the same....THAT said, my point remains from the prior post.


The issue is simple. There were certain things that were wrong with the Pal Arab census numbers - double counting, or counting people who had left, etc. etc. These make the numbers and projections unreliable.

We KNOW that there were double counting by the PA, but ISRAEL did the SAME thing.....they have not removed American Jews or any OTHER stripe from their rolls....so let's just call that a wash.

That really has no major practical effect. Whether the issue of Pal Arab sovereignty on the WB and Gaza still comes down to four options: Autonomy Plus (doesn't seem like a realistic option anymore, but was Rabin's option), Two State solution, One state solution (even 2.8 million more Arabs into Israel would doom the Jewish state in the long run, not to mention any Arabs who wanted/were able to return), or 1 state solution plus transfer of Arabs to existing Arab state (unlikely and problematic.)

All those options are entirely plausible and I don't argue this.

All it does is change the date by which a one state solution w/out transfer would destroy the Jewish state, pushing it back a decade or two.


Oh, and Israel was using the flawed numbers, too, nor is the US as "gung-ho" as you suggest. The US is balancing its Arab and Israeli interests.


I agree.....but it will be very telling to watch Sharon handle the pull out, from a political point of view.

MGB8
04-12-2005, 02:19 PM
Israel doesn't count American Jews in its census. That's libel, and blatantly false. As far as I know, Israel doesn't count Israeli's who have moved to Israel and haven't returned. Its a real census.

Meanwhile, when exactly did the US census beaurau go and count the Pal Arabs? Where do "their own figures" come from?

prof k
04-12-2005, 03:04 PM
Perhaps i should have clarified HOW Israel counts....my apologies, but it hardly constitutes 'libel'

According to the Israeli Census process, a Jewish Israeli has to REMAIN out of the country for a FULL year not to be included in the population counts. So, based on THAT, there are Jews that are no longer in Israel that were counted in the last census. Granted, there is immigration to consider in the total picture that includes births-deaths+inmigrants-outmigrants to get the whole picture, but I have seen net migration rates that range from LESS than 1.0 to as high as 2.1....

MGB8
04-13-2005, 09:24 AM
In other words, given sabaticals and other things of that nature, Israel waits a year to declare Israeli Jews "gone." This is different than counting non-Israeli american Jews, number 1, which was stated there. I don't know if it has a different policy for Arabs or Christians who move away, but I would be surprised if there was a difference. Meanwhile, Israel HAS removed people who move away, you just have to be away for a certain amount of time. The allegation has been that the Pal Arab numbers don't take into account any of the moves, whether shorter or longer than one year.

Meanwhile, did the US census beuarea go to the territories and count the Pal Arabs? If not, then where do its numbers come from? Is it possible that you get a different final count based on the same initial figures, or that there are year disparities or projection disparities, etc.