Geert Wilders Poll Victory

[maven]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...s-1698157.html

-Wilders strikes first blow for European extremists-
By Claire Soares and John Lichfield in Paris

Geert Wilders' Freedom Party won 17 per cent of the vote in the European elections in the Netherlands.

The first killer punch of the European election campaign was struck yesterday by the maverick Dutch politician, Geert Wilders, who scooped 17 per cent of the vote and almost a fifth of his country's seats in the European Parliament running on a populist, anti-immigrant, law and order agenda.

The Dutch result, released two days early – before most Europeans had even cast their votes – sent jitters around a continent fearful that a miserably low turnout will help extremists on both the left and right.

Mr Wilders, refused access to Britain as a rabble-rouser earlier this year, has perfected a form of tolerant intolerance with his Freedom Party and its smartly-suited, middle-class, anti-Islamic and "pro-liberal" values. While the Christian Democrats of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende managed to keep hold of the largest share of the votes (albeit with the loss of two seats and a mere three-point lead), the Freedom Party romped home in second.

The platinum-blond maverick shot to international prominence for branding the Koran a "fascist book" and releasing a film, Fitna, which depicted Islam as inherently violent. "This is fantastic, a great day for the people who crave another Netherlands, another Europe," declared a triumphant Mr Wilders who won four of the 25 seats up fro grabs. Having beaten the Labour party, the other main bloc in the Prime Minister's coalition, into third place, he claimed the government no longer had a mandate. "The cabinet should step down, the sooner the better," he told Dutch television, although analysts said that was wishful thinking.

[Achihud]

The problem is when the other parties' response is a cordon sanitaire, you can't get into the government, not even with 35%. Eventually people will lose faith and vote for alternative rightist parties that don't focus on islam.

Yesterday it has happened to Vlaams Belang which fell back to where they were in 2004. The loss of votes went to two new players, LDD (Dedecker who targets traditional liberal party and is a spin off) and NVA (De Wever and his New Flemish Alliance which is closest to VB but leaves topics such as islam out of its program). Together they have roughly 40% of the votes.

But Belgium is relative different because of the tension between north and south, the Netherlands doesn't have that problem. That's why Wilders wants to see the Dutch part of Belgium corporated into the Netherlands.

[bararallu]

hat's why Wilders wants to see the Dutch part of Belgium corporated into the Netherlands.

Any recent Belgian referendum on that end?

[Achihud]

Any recent Belgian referendum on that end?

No, at first glance it is a relative far fetched solution but the idea can be a lever. Only Vlaams Belang is openly sympathetic to Wilders' suggestion. However, it can change rapidly because the ongoing shift towards rightist parties has everything to do with the growing discontent about the lack in progress (non whatsoever) regarding further changes in the constitution. Duth people don't vote left, anything left anymore. Socialist party is on the rebound, other left alternatives are close to electorale dead.

Walloon situation, socialist party PS is still the biggest party, nothing new there despite many scandals over the past years. It's like the walloon people only vote in fear for what is happening on the other side of Brussels.

[bararallu]

I figure if the economy is growing astronomically there will be a push otherwise not so much. In the UK that seems to be the deal with devolution. Canada a bit more complicated.

[takeo]

The problem is when the other parties' response is a cordon sanitaire, you can't get into the government, not even with 35%. Eventually people will lose faith and vote for alternative rightist parties that don't focus on islam.

Yesterday it has happened to Vlaams Belang which fell back to where they were in 2004. The loss of votes went to two new players, LDD (Dedecker who targets traditional liberal party and is a spin off) and NVA (De Wever and his New Flemish Alliance which is closest to VB but leaves topics such as islam out of its program). Together they have roughly 40% of the votes.

But Belgium is relative different because of the tension between north and south, the Netherlands doesn't have that problem. That's why Wilders wants to see the Dutch part of Belgium corporated into the Netherlands.

It will never happen, the Flemish don't like the Dutch and they have, except their language(and even the language is different, for example Dutch people are always subtitled on flemish television), little in common.
People didn't vote anymore for VB because they get tired of their hatemongering against muslims, non-catholic flemish foreigners in general, Frenchspeaking people, entry of Turkey in the EU, etc. Instead they voted for moderate nationalists and moderate christian-democrats. In the frenshspeaking part people mostly voted for socialists and leftist ecologists.

Wilders is a populist with very unrealistic demands. As the party of Fortuyn and other populist rightists they will fade once people really get to know them better, as happened in France with le Pen, in austria with Haider, etc. . History repeats itself... Italy is the exception because in Italy Berlusconi owns much of the media, both the private media as public media are tightly controlled by his men.

[takeo]

No, at first glance it is a relative far fetched solution but the idea can be a lever. Only Vlaams Belang is openly sympathetic to Wilders' suggestion. However, it can change rapidly because the ongoing shift towards rightist parties has everything to do with the growing discontent about the lack in progress (non whatsoever) regarding further changes in the constitution. Duth people don't vote left, anything left anymore. Socialist party is on the rebound, other left alternatives are close to electorale dead.

Walloon situation, socialist party PS is still the biggest party, nothing new there despite many scandals over the past years. It's like the walloon people only vote in fear for what is happening on the other side of Brussels.

There have been opinion polls on this subject, only 3 % of the Flemish would like to form a union with the Netherlands. (perhaps that's one of the reasons why people don't vote VB anymore)
About 30 percent would like to see an independant Flanders.
In Belgium the situation is different from the Netherlands. For example the christian-democrats, who won the latest regional elections, have a very center-left socio-economic program, and are supported mainly by their own labour-union, the other winners, the flemish separatists, are rather right-wing (altough many are more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, as is the other right-wing winner of the elections in Flanders Dedecker). Only VB is supporting Israel, but because of their nazist past not all Israel-supporters want to accept their embrace... (and of course if you talk in private with VB-sympathisers and militants, many are anti-foreigner in general, which includes Jews). In The Netherlands there is generally more sympathy towards Israel, both among the left and the right. The only Jew in Belgian politics as far as I know used to be the president of the socialist party. (Ertman) Also in the Netherlands the most Jews active in politics belong to the socialists. (maire of Amsterdam for example)

[Rob]

Belgium is an artificial country and is a prime example of a failed state. Eventually Flanders and the Netherlands will be one state. A very large majority of the Netherlands supports this. And there also polls that show a majority amongst Flemish people for this. It also depends how this one Dutch state will look like. A very loose federation is most likely, and this is also what the majority of the Flemish people prefer. A state where the Netherlands will impose its will on Flanders of course will be rejected.
Of course the French speaking part is opposing this, because their economy is in a very bad situation and depends on bakshish from the Dutch speaking north.

[Mediocrates]

The Jobbiks in Hugary got nearly 15% and they are straight up uncoated Nazis

http://ejpress.org/article/37098

And then they had a nice meeting with the BNP in Hungary

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6457752.ece

[Achihud]

Belgium is an artificial country and is a prime example of a failed state.

Affirmative!

On the days of our royal family they have to fill the fences with schoolkids. No security is needed, it’s a non-event!
The worst thing that can happen over here is when some lost driver hunks from behind to speed up the parade.

People didn't vote anymore for VB because they get tired of their hatemongering against muslims, non-catholic flemish foreigners in general, Frenchspeaking people, entry of Turkey in the EU, etc.

Scratch, if you say so. Muslim immigration is just as much disliked today as it was when VB reached 30%.

People lost faith when their vote became devalued after foreigners received the same right. This caused the first deceptive little loss for VB but with a very important psychological effect as if VB reached a ceiling.
But it ain’t over, even with 20% they can get in the government one day because Dedecker doesn’t support the cordon, De Wever can be persuated (later) if he can let the Christian Democrats crash once more into the B-H-V wall.

To achieve its objectives VB is closer than ever if they don’t panic and stay the course.

[Kenneth]

What will happen to my ugly little Charleroi airport, where they serve the big burger, will Wilders save it?

[savvy]

Wilders is a courageous man, but the BNP is racist. The only reason people voted for them is because they're sick of coward politicians who won't stand up for the average person.

[takeo]

Rob

Belgium is an artificial country and is a prime example of a failed state.

But one with one of the highest living standards on earth, certainly better than Israel, I would say even better than France and GB.

Eventually Flanders and the Netherlands will be one state. A very large majority of the Netherlands supports this.

really? that's new to me? any sources?

And there also polls that show a majority amongst Flemish people for this.

That's even more surprising, the last poll I saw showed only 3% support for this. Most Flemish I know woud rather join Israel or ireland than the Netherlands.

It also depends how this one Dutch state will look like. A very loose federation is most likely, and this is also what the majority of the Flemish people prefer. A state where the Netherlands will impose its will on Flanders of course will be rejected.
Of course the French speaking part is opposing this, because their economy is in a very bad situation and depends on bakshish from the Dutch speaking north.

depends, Frenchspeaking Brussels is the motor of the Belgian economy. Walloon is in a worse shape.

[takeo]

Achihud

On the days of our royal family they have to fill the fences with schoolkids. No security is needed, it’s a non-event!
The worst thing that can happen over here is when some lost driver hunks from behind to speed up the parade.

the majority of Belgians still support the monarchy and Belgium, altough they are not very nationalistic or patriottic, especially compared to France.

Scratch, if you say so. Muslim immigration is just as much disliked today as it was when VB reached 30%.

I would say there's a change, many people now realise the migrants are going to stay. What people don't want is more immigration, not only from muslim or African countries but equally from Eastern Europe.

People lost faith when their vote became devalued after foreigners received the same right. This caused the first deceptive little loss for VB but with a very important psychological effect as if VB reached a ceiling.

I wouldn't say the loss of sunday was deceptive, it was very real, the party lost nearly half of its votes. Also, I don't understand how Jews can support fascists like those ones. Many of their supporters are neo-nazi's and have outspoken racist ideas, including antisemitic ones. (especially in Antwerp)

But it ain’t over, even with 20% they can get in the government one day because Dedecker doesn’t support the cordon, De Wever can be persuated (later) if he can let the Christian Democrats crash once more into the B-H-V wall.

This is extremely unlikely, especially now that they have lost the elections. The big winner of the elections are the center christian-democrats, they will NEVER form a government with VB, and Dedecker himself is very controversial and only received 8% of the votes. (besides I don't think Dedecker is good news for Israel-supporters he's the most outspoken supporter of the palestinian cause in Belgian politics, also Flemish nationalists NVA support the palestinian cause)

To achieve its objectives VB is closer than ever if they don’t panic and stay the course.

I would say the inverse, now that they lost the election big time their "momentum" is over.

[takeo]

What will happen to my ugly little Charleroi airport, where they serve the big burger, will Wilders save it?

Ryanair made it into one of the best succes stories in Walloon. I agree Charleroi is very ugly, it must be one of the ugliest cities and airports in Western Europe. Once some walloon politician from Charleroi proposed to adhere Walloon to France. As a result a journalist from Le Monde had a look. He wrote: "sorry thanks, but no".

Wilders is a Dutch phenomenon, Belgians (and that includes flemish) coundn't care less.