Turkish navy to escort Gaza-bound vessels

[curlyg]

The Turkish navy will significantly strengthen its presence in the eastern Mediterranean Sea as one of the steps the Turkish government has decided to take following the release of the UN Palmer report on the 2010 Gaza flotilla, Turkish officials told the Hurriyet Daily News.

"The eastern Mediterranean will no longer be a place where Israeli naval forces can freely exercise their bullying practices against civilian vessels," a Turkish official was quoted as saying.

As part of the plan, the Turkish navy will increase its patrols in the eastern Mediterranean and pursue "a more aggressive strategy".

According to the report, Turkish naval vessels will accompany civilian ships carrying aid to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Another goal of the plan is to ensure free navigation in the region between Cyprus and Israel. The region includes areas where Israel and Cyprus cooperate in drilling for oil and gas.

Looks like things might get ugly real fast

[Cellis]

Impossible. All are made up for covering the NATO air defense installment in Turkey. Also US approach to the matter is very suspicious. Just combine Nato missiles / Palmer Report / Israel-Turkey Relations / Obama being very quiet. Something weird here.

[johnvonneumann]

I don't take this announcement very seriously. The Erdogan government was humiliated by the Palmer report and is trying to restore its image with image with the Turkish public. It lost face in Turkey, where it had already suffered an earlier loss of face by showing itself incapable of influencing the situation in Syria, in spite of open threats. Don't forget that only recently it was trying to sound conciliatory towards Israel - it prevented a Turkish ship from joining the latest flotilla and Erdogan spoke publicly about the need for Hamas to recognise Israel. The also just agreed to host the US radar that is supposed to be a part of the anti-Iran missile shield.

A military confrontation between Turkey and Israel at this stage is out of the question. Firstly, contrary to the impression that people get by looking at naval strength at Wikipedia, the balance of power favours Israel. The Israeli navy is smaller but much more modern, particularly in the all important area of electronics. Moreover, in any confrontation, airforce would play a crucial role and Israel has big advantage in this area. But even more important it the political and economic situation.

It is not a good idea to get into a military confrontation when you have just arrested a number of your top military and others have resigned. The military is already smarting from a humiliation, but it is paralysed by the curent popularity of the government. This popularity would rapidly evaporate if the Turkish government got their military into a confrontation from which they would then have to back down. This is exactly how the Greek junta collapsed in the mid 1970-s (first provoking a confrontation with Turkey over Cyprus, then backing down when the Turks invaded). If Israel refuses to back down (which is certain), the Turks will have to (or will be made to do so by the US), and then the Turkish government will fall. They know that and they won't risk it, particularly that their economy is now extremely vulnerable to a run on the lira, which would inevitably follow.
Besides, any such actions on the part of the Turks would almost certainly bring about the outcome mentioned here and it is not something the Turks would welcome at this stage.

I would be quite willing to bet that nothing serious will come out of this, at least till after the US election (and then it will depend a lot on its outcome).

[hanayon]

As I posted in a parallel thread just now, "what is Turkey thinking?", if things get ugly with this continuous escalation by Turkey of an incident where Turkey was "humiliated" by allowing known troublemakers altogether on one specific ship of theirs on that idiotic flotilla to the point where there is an actual military confrontation between Turkey and Israel, what happens then? Hello? Turkey belongs to NATO - Israel has bupkes. What's to stop Turkey from running crying to NATO to support it against that big bad bully Israel?

Barak had better get off his fat ass and actually do something to get the Turks, Egyptians and Gazans to pay attention that we KNOW they are not Israel's friends. Why does Israel have to pretend a love-fest with terrorists or terrorists-to-be?

Has Israel totally lost its will? Sure, militarily we can win, but a country needs the WILL to win, and we have definitely showed the world since Oslo that we have lost it.

[farmboy]

Has Israel totally lost its will? Sure, militarily we can win, but a country needs the WILL to win, and we have definitely showed the world since Oslo that we have lost it.

I once knew of a very dissfunctional family on a council housing estate. The husband and wife would always be fighting with each other and so would their kids. On several occasions the police and social workers would be called because of the disturbance, yet when they arrived the family would stand by each other untill the threat was gone. Then they would get back to their internal squabbling when it was all clear again.
I think when Israel is up against it we will see a similarity.

[dayag]

Let the Turkish Navy escort the next Flotilla. We should reoccupy Gaza and wave at them from the beach when they arrive.

[Mediocrates]

Any Turkish warship in Israeli waters should be warned twice then fired upon.

[johnvonneumann]

There is no chance at all that they would enter Israeli waters except except as a result of some accident (which, of course, could happen if they take the approach of brinkmanship). Once a Turkish ship finds itself so close to Israel and so far from Turkey, it is a sitting target for the Israeli air force - to do so would be crazy both from the political and military viewpoints. The Turks might try to provoke Israel to take actions that would be illegal in international law to bolster their legal arguments against Israel but they will not commit a military and political suicide.
(There is a Russian saying “yesli turok nye pridurok znachit on nye turok” - but one should not base foreign policy decisions on such stereotypes).

[Cellis]

It's very horrifying to read these war comments. You are forgetting about possibilities dealing with gazans, west bankers, jordan, egypt, syria, lebanon and direct/indirect support of iran and rest of the arab world. Let me remind you that Israel has no ally in the region and US will do nothing in this scenario (specially with democrats). Turkey is a creator member of Nato in the other hand Israel is a 1st priority ally in the region. US will help neither of them. This scenario is x10 worse than 6 days war. Let me remind you, in the worst case it will bloody easy to cross tiny Israeli soil with ground forces. Russian-Chinese involvement in this will be inevitable and you know which side they will be. Russia has zero interest in Israel but they have pipes to protect in Turkey, yet they don't want an unstable Turkey right next to their soil. Russia-China looking chance to sell arms to anybody and anti-Israel alliance has the best of the best potential.
EU will be totally neutral but they won't back stab Turkey and give up their investments and other economical benefits. Greece with the current economy will not do a thing because they don't even have enough money to fill the f16 fuel tanks. No matter how great technology and military power Israel has... Armenia in the east with 3 million population and weaponry from 2nd world war has no potential to cross the border. Kurds in the northern iraq will be easier to suppress during the war without taking much attention and having horrible PR difficulties.
If Israel feels insecure during the war and tosses nuclear card on the table, it's very likely declaration of suicide. Sounds like a fantasy but this means ww3.

Maybe you should stop convincing yourself while feeling insecure and prepare for the inevitable scenario.

[Mediocrates]

Israel should post a permanent naval and UAV picket over the site of their newly discovered gas fields. They should also post full time surveillance UAVs in international airspace opposite all Turkish naval and air bases in the Mediterranean. It should accelerate the launching of the next Ofek spy sat and put it in orbit ASAP.

As far as expelling Turkish diplomats, either, do it now or don't. But if not then Israel should simply refuse to talk to them at all, for a period of 6 months. Just ignore whatever it is they have to say in Israel.

Israel has improved relations with Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria and Albania. They should redouble this effort. They should work to bolster Georgia. Any state which shares a land or sea border with Turkey should be involved.

[dayag]

It's very horrifying to read these war comments. You are forgetting about possibilities dealing with gazans, west bankers, jordan, egypt, syria, lebanon and direct/indirect support of iran and rest of the arab world. Let me remind you that Israel has no ally in the region and US will do nothing in this scenario (specially with democrats). Turkey is a creator member of Nato in the other hand Israel is a 1st priority ally in the region. US will help neither of them. This scenario is x10 worse than 6 days war. Let me remind you, in the worst case it will bloody easy to cross tiny Israeli soil with ground forces. Russian-Chinese involvement in this will be inevitable and you know which side they will be. Russia has zero interest in Israel but they have pipes to protect in Turkey, yet they don't want an unstable Turkey right next to their soil. Russia-China looking chance to sell arms to anybody and anti-Israel alliance has the best of the best potential.
EU will be totally neutral but they won't back stab Turkey and give up their investments and other economical benefits. Greece with the current economy will not do a thing because they don't even have enough money to fill the f16 fuel tanks. No matter how great technology and military power Israel has... Armenia in the east with 3 million population and weaponry from 2nd world war has no potential to cross the border. Kurds in the northern iraq will be easier to suppress during the war without taking much attention and having horrible PR difficulties.
If Israel feels insecure during the war and tosses nuclear card on the table, it's very likely declaration of suicide. Sounds like a fantasy but this means ww3.

Maybe you should stop convincing yourself while feeling insecure and prepare for the inevitable scenario.

That is why I am saying reoccupy Gaza now. Then we wouldn't need to confront the Turkish navy and start a war with NATO and all the other countries in the region that you mentioned.

[Mediocrates]

I would let Gaza fester. Let it burn and rot in the sun of its own accord. Open the blockade and cut all infrastructure services to Gaza 100%. Close the border and seal it on the Israeli side. Let Turkey ship hundreds of truckloads of supplies in. Let the Turks feel the anger of the Egyptians for arming the Muslim Brotherhood. Let the the Turks get bullied by the Ha-mafia.

[Aliyah1995]

I would let Gaza fester. Let it burn and rot in the sun of its own accord. Open the blockade and cut all infrastructure services to Gaza 100%. Close the border and seal it on the Israeli side. Let Turkey ship hundreds of truckloads of supplies in. Let the Turks feel the anger of the Egyptians for arming the Muslim Brotherhood. Let the the Turks get bullied by the Ha-mafia.

That's actually NOT a bad idea. Open the blockade, seal the border between Gaza and Israel and let Turkey supply/support them, since Turkey cares so much about them. And, woe to Gaza if a single missile is launched from their territory into sovereign Israeli territory.

[johnvonneumann]

There is no chance of war between Israel and Turkey, not for many years anyway. This is all essentially about the Erdogan government trying to cover up their inability to do anything about Syria, in spite of having made very explicit threats. A quarrel with Israel will provide a good excuse.

Also, NATO will have nothing to do with this matter. First of all, NATO is a defensive alliance, with an obligation to intervene only when one of its member states is attacked. Even then, the North Atlantic Treaty does not state that the reaction has to be a military one. Keep in mind what happened during the war between Britain and Argentina over the Falkland Islands. NATO did not support Britain (officinally because the conflict was in the southern hemisphere and the treaty is only concerned with the northern) and ,in fact, Spain openly backed Argentina. Also, Turkey is on bad terms with Greece, which is also a NATO member, and the two countries have nearly gone to war several times in the past, while being in NATO.

The Turkish army has various agreements with Israel concerning joint production, maintenance and exports of weapons, which will now become inoperative. This will hurt Turkey much more than Israel and will affect adversely Turkish military capabilities for years to come.

[Cellis]

The Turkish army has various agreements with Israel concerning joint production, maintenance and exports of weapons, which will now become inoperative. This will hurt Turkey much more than Israel and will affect adversely Turkish military capabilities for years to come.

I disagree. Turkey is looking forward to purchase Russian arms.

After all, US will not let anything like ww3 to happen. I don't think either Turkey nor Israel would do it anyway.