Barak: 50% haredim to IDF, rest to national service

[wat0n]

I hope there is an early election.

[Aliyah1995]

What will an early election accomplish? We'll just have SSDL (same sh&*^%$ different leader).

[curlyg]

I think the pro-draft parties would be able to leverage the controversy around this to improve their results in an election, giving them a strong mandate to pass a fair draft law. Having said that the fragmentation in Israeli politics is a serious obstacle in this respect.

[Aliyah1995]

What I HONESTLY don't get is this: how is it that the "disengagement" from Gaza, which shared no where near as uniform a consensus as sharing the burden of security is, yet the "disengagement" was pulled out, while our government is still struggling to pass a law/s that would make IDF service/national service binding on all.

I mean there were a heck of a lot more people/parties that were against the Gaza "disengagement" than there are against uniform service.

[curlyg]

What I HONESTLY don't get is this: how is it that the "disengagement" from Gaza, which shared no where near as uniform a consensus as sharing the burden of security is, yet the "disengagement" was pulled out, while our government is still struggling to pass a law/s that would make IDF service/national service binding on all.

I mean there were a heck of a lot more people/parties that were against the Gaza "disengagement" than there are against uniform service.

The Haredim didn't give a damn about the disengagement. All rhetoric and hot air against it was bs. They stayed in the government and even though they voted against it in effect they allowed it to go through. Frankly, the disengagement was not something that really affected their narrow constituency and so they were happy to look the other way in exchange for the benefits of being in power. Not the case here - they'll topple the government before they allow a material injury to their (perceived) interests.

[Aliyah1995]

The Haredim didn't give a damn about the disengagement. All rhetoric and hot air against it was bs. They stayed in the government and even though they voted against it in effect they allowed it to go through. Frankly, the disengagement was not something that really affected their narrow constituency and so they were happy to look the other way in exchange for the benefits of being in power. Not the case here - they'll topple the government before they allow a material injury to their (perceived) interests.

I never counted the Haredim in the contingency against the "disengagement" from Gaza. However, even without them there was a VERY big percentage of the Israeli population (on the street and in the government) against it. Most of Likud was against it, Mafdal was against it, Ichud Ha'Leumi was against it. There certainly were no less Knesset members against the "disengagement" than there are against the universal draft.

The demonstrations against "disengagement" were pretty hot and serious, no less than the ones (by the Haredim) against universal draft. So, what gives?

[curlyg]

I never counted the Haredim in the contingency against the "disengagement" from Gaza. However, even without them there was a VERY big percentage of the Israeli population (on the street and in the government) against it. Most of Likud was against it, Mafdal was against it, Ichud Ha'Leumi was against it. There certainly were no less Knesset members against the "disengagement" than there are against the universal draft.

The demonstrations against "disengagement" were pretty hot and serious, no less than the ones (by the Haredim) against universal draft. So, what gives?

This is true, it's an interesting point. The thing is though that none of those parties you mentioned are actually critical to governing - whereas the Haredi political leadership, to their credit, have made themselves indispensable to any major party wishing to form a government - be it Likud or Labor or Kadima, none of them will get anywhere if they're not willing to play nice with the Haredim. They're dedicated exclusively to their narrow interests. Mafdal, Ichud Leumi, segments of Likud, etc. are distinctly on the right of the political spectrum, indeed we're talking here quite far on the right, they're not essential for coalition formation if you can rely on the left and Haredim to back you.

But I do agree with you, overall its an interesting point that Sharon managed to strong-arm this through whereas Netanyahu seems completely incapable to even get a committee to published some initial recommendations...

[wat0n]

What will an early election accomplish? We'll just have SSDL (same sh&*^%$ different leader).

I'd like to see how Shinui deals with this. It'd be fun.

[Sylvia]

"The demonstrations against "disengagement" were pretty hot and serious, no less than the ones (by the Haredim) against universal draft. So, what gives?"

I remember very clearly how those decisions were made at the time. First, Sharon was pretty sure he could get the disengagement passed by referendum of Likud committee members. He could have but the pro-settlement people specially from Gush Katif started mobilizing immediately and they called the Haverim one by one, and convinced many of them. Even those who were pro-engagement didn't feel they could do that to people they knew. So the referendum returned something like 43% pro and 60 something percent against. Sharon was disappointed but he went ahead and made the unilateral decision to disengage.

This case is different. First, because many Haridim do their military service and many of them went to the army before they became Haridim.
Second, you know that when you ask for equal obligations someone is going to wonder what about the Arabs? And this is the problem. because Zahava Galon of Meretz who filed the initial request doesn't think at all that Israeli Arabs should have equal obligations (not even tutoring their own children in Arabic as part of civil service). Well, I know some Jewish groups in Israel who have less opportunities than Israeli Arabs and have served as cannon fodder since the fifties, while being constantly insulted and humiliated and Zahava is not exempting them from military service.
This is the connection Netanyahu is making: "Military service for Haridim, Civil service for Israeli Arabs", is what he said. Which suggests to me that he doesn't expect a new law to pass any time soon. Maybe he doesn't want compulsory military service for haridim, after all.

[Sylvia]

"I'd like to see how Shinui deals with this. It'd be fun."

If - like I said it here first - Tsipi Livni makes a deal with Shinui, then it'll never be passed. Not because Tsipi doesn't want Haridim to go to the army, but because Shas won't be part of Shinui's coalition. And as an opposition, Shas will evidently oppose, and do a good job at that.

[Sylvia]

"I'd like to see how Shinui deals with this. It'd be fun."

If - like I said it here first - Tsipi Livni makes a deal with Shinui, then it'll never be passed. Not because Tsipi doesn't want Haridim to go to the army, but because Shas won't be part of Shinui's coalition. And as an opposition, Shas will evidently oppose, and do a good job at that.

[Aliyah1995]

I'd like to see how Shinui deals with this. It'd be fun.

Shinui is defunct....

Glad to see you Sylvia. I hope you are doing ok and holding you're own. Please post once in a while to let us know you are ok....

[Sylvia]

Shinui is defunct....

Glad to see you Sylvia. I hope you are doing ok and holding you're own. Please post once in a while to let us know you are ok....

Shinui is live and well although it reappeared in sheep's clothes, by another name and headed by Yair Lapid - the Son.


Glad to see you too. I have been able to take advantage of the respite kindly afforded to us by the Palestinian terrorists of Gaza to take care of a few things in the "real" world . If Tsipi joins Lapid, it would be because she knows it is Shinui by another name.

[Aliyah1995]

Latest Development:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...256736,00.html

Kadima faction votes to quit coalition
In dramatic faction meeting, Kadima chairman Mofaz says 'It is with great regret that I say there is no choice but to decide to pull out of the government'. Twenty-four MKs vote in favor of step, 3 oppose
Attila Somfalvi
Latest Update: 07.17.12, 19:12 / Israel News



End of Kadima-Likud partnership: Members of the Kadima faction voted to quit the coalition on Tuesday. Twenty-four MKs voted in favor of the proposal and three voted against it after party chairman Shaul Mofaz announced his intention to leave the government. The dissenting MKs are Avi Dichter, Otniel Schneller and Yulia Shamalov-Berkovich.

Speaking at a faction meeting in Petah Tikva Mofaz said, "It is with deep regret that I say that there is no choice but to decide to leave the government." Following the vote, Mofaz sent his resignation letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Related stories:
PM sides with haredim: No draft at 18
Mofaz: Kadima staying in government
Kadima: PM went back on draft deal

"It wasn't easy to enter it," Mofaz said earlier. "I paid a personal political price but this issue is fundamental, and there is no choice but to leave the coalition. Every concession will harm Kadima's image."

The Kadima faction convened for a dramatic meeting hours after announcing that negotiations with the Likud over an alternative to the Tal Law had failed. "Negotiations between Kadima and the Likud over the equal distribution of the burden have failed," the statement read.

Addressing the crisis with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud, Mofaz said: "I insisted that the (Plesner) committee complete its task.

"The break down occurred with the dissolution of the committee by the prime minister. I told the prime minister that if he fails to accept the Plesner principles, I was out and then the Likud faction accepted my position."

Mofaz stressed that he was unwilling to compromise on the conscription matter or the enlistment age. He said that Kadima was willing to allow yeshiva students to study until the age of 22 before enlisting. "The prime minister was not willing to go below 26 and I did not accept the offer."

Early elections?
Coalition sources said that withdrawal from the coalition will threaten the government's stability and may prompt early elections. Political sources added that in such a case, elections will be held in early 2013.

Earlier, Yesh Atid party chairman Yair Lapid called for the Knesset's dissolution and the declaration of early elections.

A close associate of Mofaz' added that the Likud's compromise offer "is nothing less than an attempt to deceive the public."

It is still unclear, however, how many of Kadima's Knesset members are in favor of the party exiting the Coalition and how many are against it.


This may pose an internal political problem for Mofaz, whose decision to join Netanyahu in the first place earned ruthless criticism.

Likud sources accused Mofaz of being obstinate, while the Kadima chairman's associates said he simply refuses to cave into the Likud's pressure to manufacture a bill that does not support full equality.

[wat0n]

So there will probably be early elections, then (PS: On the other hand, Lieberman doesn't want one yet). It is still kind of pathetic to see how little this coalition lasted though.

Best of luck with this, guys. I sometimes wonder if Israel should move towards having a professional army and a compulsory national service (military or civilian, depending on the person's choice) perhaps with pay (with a higher one for soldiers, of course). But then one would need to know how many people would actually be willing to pick the military route...