Will Egypt go to war with Israel within 4 years?

[wat0n]

Ouch, I mistakenly voted yes. I meant to vote no.

[Reffo]

Ouch, I mistakenly voted yes. I meant to vote no.

Freudian slip?

Anyway, I hope your REAL intended vote is the one that will be reality.

[Reffo]

An interesting article written in 2003. It was prescient:

For the first thirty years of Israel's existence, Egypt was its archenemy. The two countries fought a war per decade for four decades: 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973. President Anwar Sadat's historic decision of 1977 to achieve peace with Israel broke the cycle. He believed Egypt could achieve its strategic goals by means other than war. When he declared his famous appeal for "No more wars," he was saying that Egypt could only regain sovereignty in Sinai by signing a peace treaty with Israel, relying on the assistance of the United States. It was a cold calculation. As articulated by Israel's second ambassador to Egypt, Moshe Sasson:

From the Egyptian perspective, that development was engendered neither by a devotion to peace as a value per se, nor by some sort of ideological shift. It was, in fact, motivated by a purely Egyptian national interest.[1]

The peace, between Egypt and Israel, expected to be lasting, solid, and irreversible, was, however, reached by a democratic state and an authoritarian regime; between a society of Western political culture and norms and an Arab-Muslim society with different attitudes regarding the character of peace, the parameters of truth, and the meaning of justice.

Therefore, the formal peace between Israel and its southern neighbor has been potentially reversible, almost by its nature, regardless of the fact that both sides have adhered to their peace treaty for a quarter of a century

In addition, there is a risk that relations could deteriorate from cold peace to low-intensity military tension. This could follow an Egyptian violation of the demilitarized status of the Sinai Peninsula or as a result of an Egyptian strategic decision to build up a nuclear deterrent.[30] The Egyptian minister of defense and war production, Muhammad Hussein at-Tantawi, was reported to have told a closed forum a few years ago that Egypt should prepare for a future war with Israel. He later denied the reports and praised the importance of "strategic peace" with Israel.[31] However, explaining his concept of peace, Tantawi was quoted as saying: "Peace does not mean relaxation … Any threat to any Arab or African country is a threat to Egypt's national security."[32]

Egypt and Israel: A Reversible Peace

That last item in bold is new to me. I certainly wasn't aware that Tantawi said that as far back as before 2003. And now he is the Commander of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Couple that to the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood and what have we got? Nothing reassuring I am afraid ...

[sharonbn]

with this amount of voters, its quite critical that you vote correctly...

[Reffo]

When I started this topic on that other thread (from which the posts on this thread were split), I mentioned the slippery slope. The quote below identifies a step down that slippery slope ...

The Egyptian army has been deploying large anti-terrorist forces in parts of the Sinai peninsula without informing Israel in advance. The peace treaty between the two countries limits the Egyptian military presence in Sinai

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...roval-1.458511

[Pleepleus]

Ouch, I mistakenly voted yes. I meant to vote no.

That's ok, Waton. I was going to vote 'yes', but voted 'no' for you.

[Reffo]

Former U.S. envoy to the Middle East Dennis Ross called Monday on the U.S. administration to reconsider supporting Egypt financially if the country continues to violate the peace treaty signed with Israel in 1979

Dennis Ross: U.S. must halt aid to Egypt if it continues to violate treaty with Israel

Ok, I know that the US decision makers won't necessarily listen to Dennis Ross. But having been involved with the peace negotiations between Arabs and Israelis, he is not a complete nobody either. So he has at least SOME influence. And if the Egyptians would continue to ignore the warning signs, they WILL eventually lose the bribe that they get from the USA in return for not making trouble. Once they do, they won't easily get it back even if they would regret it. And once they realize that, they will start making trouble earnestly.

Of course even if the USA won't listen to Dennis Ross, even then, the slide on the slippery slope will continue because if they get away with this transgression, the Egyptians will continue to push the boundaries and they will break more agreements.

So, it looks like it's a no win situation. Except to, of course, to the wishful thinkers on this forum and elsewhere, who continue the good old tradition of putting their heads in the sand and ignore the gathering clouds.

[sharonbn]

Reuters
Published: 08.28.12, 08:23 / Israel News

Egypt's new Islamist president said on Monday he would pursue a "balanced" foreign policy, reassuring Israel its peace treaty was safe, hinting at a new approach to Iran and calling on Bashar Assad's allies to help lever the Syrian leader out.

Mohammed Morsi, who was elected in June and consolidated his power this month by dismissing top military leaders, is seeking to introduce himself to a wider world ahead of a trip to Iran - the first by an Egyptian leader in three decades - and China.

"Egypt is now a civilian state ... a national, democratic, constitutional, modern state," he told Reuters in his first interview with an international news organization since taking office as the candidate of the once-banned Muslim Brotherhood.

"International relations between all states are open and the basis for all relations is balance. We are not against anyone but we are for achieving our interests," said the US-educated engineer, appearing confident and assertive in the marble-lined presidential palace.


Without mentioning Israel by name, he indicated Egypt's neighbor had nothing to fear from a new military campaign in the Sinai Peninsula, which he ordered after gunmen attacked an Egyptian border post, killed 16 guards and tried to burst across the frontier into Israel.

"Egypt is practicing its very normal role on its soil and does not threaten anyone and there should not be any kind of international or regional concerns at all from the presence of Egyptian security forces," he said, referring to the extra police, army and other forces moved to the area.

The military campaign was in "full respect to international treaties", he said. The Egypt-Israel peace deal includes limits on Egyptian military deployment in Sinai.

Officials in Israel, already concerned that Egypt's Islamists will support the Brotherhood-offshoot Hamas in Gaza, have voiced worries about Egypt's build-up of heavy armour in Sinai to quash militants.

Morsi would not say if he would meet Israeli officials. Mubarak regularly received top officials although only went to Israel once for a funeral.

Morsi's Brotherhood describes Israel as a racist and expansionist state, but he resigned from it on taking power and has avoided inflammatory language. He repeated his position that Egypt will continue to abide by international treaties, including its 1979 peace deal.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...273813,00.html

[Reffo]

Sensible Israelis will judge Mursi on his actual actions and based on what he says to wider audiences not just on selective promises to narrow and gullible western journalists who are predisposed to wishful thinking.

[dayag]

Sensible Israelis will judge Mursi on his actual actions and based on what he says to wider audiences not just on selective promises to narrow and gullible western journalists who are predisposed to wishful thinking.

Statements to the Egyptian public could be politically motivated as well. Actions will speak much louder than words.

[Reffo]

Statements to the Egyptian public could be politically motivated as well. Actions will speak much louder than words.

What are the political motivations? To pander to carefully nurtured hatred of Israel? Do you think that enhances the chance of peace or war down the track?

[Reffo]

The slippery slope in progress:

Once peaceful, the Israel-Egypt border has become the IDF's most volatile frontier
Friday's deadly attack further illustrates how instable the Sinai region has become, a situation that endangers not only the recent calm between Israel and Gaza, but also the already strained relations between Jerusalem and Cairo.
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...emium-1.466152

[dayag]

What are the political motivations? To pander to carefully nurtured hatred of Israel? Do you think that enhances the chance of peace or war down the track?

Popularity with the mob. And it could definitely enhance the chance of war down the track.

[Reffo]

Popularity with the mob. And it could definitely enhance the chance of war down the track.

I totally agree.

The only way that I can be convinced that we are not heading towards war is if Mursi and his party would have the courage to not pander to the mob. And if he has the courage to take practical steps, REAL steps, to stop terrorism against Israel from behind Egypt's border. And last but not least, if he stops trying to renege on the signed 30 year old peace deal with Israel.

[Space Cowboy]

I will leave the high level considerations to the wiser heads here, but I would think that the Egyptian army would prefer stability. Although they have many nice American tanks they have to consider what would happen to those tanks once Israel established air supremacy. Another drubbing would threaten their standing within the Egyptian power structure.