Will Egypt go to war with Israel within 4 years?

[Space Cowboy]

Aide: Egypt flooded tunnels to cut Gaza arms flow

'We don't want to see these tunnels used for illegal ways of smuggling either people or weapons that can really harm Egyptian security.' National security adviser to Morsi says, adding that president will respect peace treaty with Israel

Reuters
Published: 02.18.13, 19:45 / Israel News

Egypt will not tolerate a two-way flow of smuggled arms with the Gaza Strip that is destabilizing its Sinai peninsula, a senior aide to its Islamist president said, explaining why Egyptian forces flooded sub-border tunnels last week.


The network of tunnels has been a lifeline for some 1.7 million Palestinians in Gaza, bringing in an estimated 30% of all goods that reach the enclave and circumventing a blockade imposed by Israel for more than seven years.

But Essam Haddad, national security adviser to President Mohamed Morsi told Reuters in an interview: "We don't want to see these tunnels used for illegal ways of smuggling either people or weapons that can really harm Egyptian security." He said that under a deal brokered by Cairo to end fighting in November between Israel and the Hamas movement that rules the Gaza Strip, the Israeli stranglehold on the coastal territory had been considerably relaxed. Egypt has eased border controls to allow in construction materials, notably from Qatar.

"Now we can say that the borders are open to a good extent - it could still be improved - and the needs of the Gazan people are allowed in. Building materials are allowed in for the first time," Haddad said.

"And on the other side, we would not like to see arms smuggled through these tunnels either in or out, because we are now seeing in Sinai and we have captured actually across Egypt heavy arms that could be used in a very dangerous way."

Sixteen Egyptian border guards were killed last August in a terrorist attack in Sinai near the Gaza fence that shocked Egyptians and highlighted lawlessness in the desert region adjoining Israel and the Gaza Strip.

Cairo said some of those gunmen had crossed into Egypt via the Gaza tunnels - an accusation denied by the Palestinians. Dozens of tunnels have been destroyed since that incident.

More - http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...346476,00.html

Well, that's a bit helpful at least..for now.

[Reffo]

More - http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...346476,00.html

Well, that's a bit helpful at least..for now.

The Islamists may be fanatical but they have never been stupid. They bide their time and they are likely to choose war at a time and place when they feel that they would be ready to win the war. They don't want war before they feel ready for it. But in the meanwhile, they won't have peace either.

[Space Cowboy]

The Islamists may be fanatical but they have never been stupid. They bide their time and they are likely to choose war at a time and place when they feel that they would be ready to win the war. They don't want war before they feel ready for it. But in the meanwhile, they won't have peace either.

Yes, I'm worried that they may simply tolerate/support "low intensity warfare" along the border in addition to Gaza. Denying all the while, of course. And I agree that their doctrine, if rational, says wait to attack until they have an advantage.

This seems related to the first story-

Report: Egyptian security delegation to visit Israel

Security official tells Palestinian news agency Cairo will demand that Jewish state allow commercial goods into Gaza; says Morsi already held indirect talks with Israel

Roi Kais, Yoav Zitun
Published: 02.18.13, 23:59 / Israel News

An Egyptian delegation will visit Israel for talks on the ceasefire with Hamas and border restrictions, Ma'an reported Monday, citing an Egyptian security official.


The Palestinian news agency quoted the official as saying the delegation will demand that Israel allow commercial goods to enter Gaza via the Rafah crossing on Egypt's border, adding that Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has already held talks with Israel through Egypt's national security service.

"Israel has agreed to allow the entry of construction material from Qatar which the Israelis refused before. This reflects that both sides have been holding talks behind the scenes to avoid alerting the public opinion in Egypt, which refuses cooperation with Israel and the United States," he said.

(more) http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...346558,00.html

Morsi wants to speak on behalf of "'Gaza" - how much responsibility will he take?

How much should Israel want him to take?

Any chance of "giving Gaza" to Egypt somewhere down the road?

[Reffo]

Any chance of "giving Gaza" to Egypt somewhere down the road?

Actually, Begin already offered to give up Gaza to Sadat as part of the Camp David peace deal in the 1970s but Sadat refused it. I suspect it was always a strategy of the Arabs to have Gaza hanging around the neck of Israel like an albatross, instead of it hanging around their own neck. Gaza has always been a God forsaken place populated by fanatics and idiots. Who wants it?

There is a saying in Hebrew, "Lech La-Azazel" it means, go to Gaza, and it isn't meant to be a compliment.

[Space Cowboy]

Actually, Begin already offered to give up Gaza to Sadat as part of the Camp David peace deal in the 1970s but Sadat refused it. I suspect it was always a strategy of the Arabs to have Gaza hanging around the neck of Israel like an albatross, instead of it hanging around their own neck. Gaza has always been a God forsaken place populated by fanatics and idiots. Who wants it?

There is a saying in Hebrew, "Lech La-Azazel" it means, go to Gaza, and it isn't meant to be a compliment.

I was thinking an M/B government might be more willing to accept the more radical elements in Gaza, or at least to assimilate them. But if Gaza is just a permanent sinkhole (even with an open seacoast not impeded by Israel) I can see why there would be no chance. More useful to the Arabs just as it is.

[sharonbn]

Lech La-Azazel does not mean go to gaza (unless you meant it as sarcasm).