2013 Israel Elections - Final Results

[Aliyah1995]

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...335946,00.html

According to a tally of 99.5% of the votes, the results are as follows:
Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu: 31
Yesh Atid: 19
Labor: 15
Shas: 11
Habayit Hayehudi: 11
United Torah Judaism: 7
Hatnua: 6
Meretz: 6
United Arab List-Taal: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2

Congratulations to Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid and all his supporters and congratulations to Shelly Yakimovitz of Labor and all her supporters. Naphtali Bennett made a decent showing, but not what the polls predicted or what his supporters (yours truly included) were hoping for.

My prediction is that Netanyahu is going to bring Yesh Atid into the coalition, while avoiding bring in Bennett, as there is too much "bad blood" between them. Also, Netanyahu is out to prove that Likud is NOT Feiglin (one of the Likud's newest Knesset members). So, I predict he will be running after Livni and perhaps Shas. If he gets those two parties (combined with Yesh Atid) that will be enough to form a coalition.

What are your opinions/predictions?

[NewsGuy]

Very good analysis, Aliyah. I'm not sure about including Livni, though.

Yesh Atid exceeded expectations, but it's headed by people who are ideologues (including my longtime classmate, Shay Piron), so Netanyahu will have to do a lot of horse trading. I also wonder if Netanyahu would rather deal with Bennet whom he hates, or with the kings of blackmail - Shas, who are hated by basically everyone else in Likud and Beiteinu.

In any event, it will be like putting together a very fragile puzzle made up of pieces that don't really want to be joined. This will then most likely lead to more early elections and political stagnation.

Also - a fractured coalition made up of populists like Lapid will mean a huge problem for Israel's economy. Israel already overtaxes its citizens to support its growing welfare system and to deliver cheaper housing as Lapid demands, there are only two ways: either build in (much) more of Judea, Samaria, and the Golan, which will bring economic reprisals from the EU, or have the government regulate and subsidize housing for special interest groups. Either way, there are some very difficult decisions facing Netanyahu in the coming years, and I predict early elections once again.

[wat0n]

If Yesh Atid isn't willing to join a coalition with Haredi parties, I wouldn't be surprised if Bibi was forced to form a coalition along with Yesh Atid, Hatnua, Kadima and either Labor or Habayit Hayeudi. Is Lapid willing to sit in a coalition with religious parties?

[NewsGuy]

Lapid's main conflict with the Hareidi parties is that he demands that the Hareidis also serve in the IDF. Who knows if Netanyahu can offer a compromise that would be acceptable to both Lapid and the Hareidis.

[Aliyah1995]

It will be VERY tempting for Lapid to NOT give up being a minister (assuming he is offered to be one), especially if it is a prestigious one (read Foreign Minister or Finance Minister). IMO, Lapid would stomach Shas and/or UTJ for that. Now if he is not offered to be a minister (or just a "minister w/o portfolio") that is a different story.

PS, another development:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...336474,00.html

Bennett set to get extra Knesset seat
Votes of 220,000 soldiers, diplomats and prisoners may cause minor shift in Knesset seats
Telem Yahav, Moran Azulay
Latest Update: 01.24.13, 08:45 / Israel News



Habayit Hayehudi is expected to win an extra Knesset seat, apparently at the expense of one of the Arab parties, according to a count of 70% of the soldiers' votes. This would bring Naftali Bennett's party to a total of 12 mandates.

The count also indicates that Kadima will pass the electoral threshold.

Related stories:
Parties eye potential surplus votes
Meet next Knesset's 53 new MKs
2013 elections: 250,000 votes wasted

Members of the Elections Committee are still busy counting the votes not included in the general tally of Tuesday's Knesset elections.

The roughly 220,000 votes include those of IDF soldiers, diplomatic envoys, patients, the disabled, women who live in shelters, police officers and prisoners.


Counting the votes (Photo: Gil Yohanan)


Lapid, Bennett likely to benefit from count (Photo: Gil Yohanan)

Polls show that the soldiers' votes are likely to strengthen Yesh Atid and conversely weaken Hadash and the United List Ta'al.

Habayit Hayehudi and the Likud-Beteinu have signed a deal to share surplus votes.

So far 70% of the votes have been counted and it is expected counting will be completed in the coming hours. Hundreds of Election Committee workers have been counting the votes manually since Wednesday night.


The Central Elections Committee is set to present the election results to President Shimon Peres next week. Peres in turn will then task one candidate with forming the government.

[sharonbn]

First of all, Labor don't deserve congratulations. They expected to have 17 or more seats and expected to be second largest party, and failed on both targets. It seems they are heading for the opposition, and it seems like Yechimovitch will have tough competition in the next primaries, due in 14 months.

Second, the newspapers today speak (speculate?) of a deal that Netanyahu attempts to make with Shas, allowing them to vote as they please on the "equality in IDF service" law that Yesh Atid will demand. Thus, they can claim they were against the law even if it passes (and it probably will pass, with help from the opposition) This deal paves the way to a coalition comprised of Likud, Yesh Atid, Shas and the ultra orthodox.

[bar-arallu]

Oh I hope they dont add Shas, UTJ or Livni.... It would suck. Parasites and Mrs annoying.

[Aliyah1995]

Oh I hope they dont add Shas, UTJ or Livni.... It would suck. Parasites and Mrs annoying.

Bararallu, I agree. However, I am skeptical. My fear is that Bibi will avoid Bennett at all costs. This means that if he takes in Yesh Atid (fine, I can stomach them) he will still need ten seats. Where do you think he will get them from? Yakimovich doesn't want in. Bibi won't go with Meretz (at least I would hope, otherwise this would be the ultimate stab in the back to his voters). So, that basically leaves Livni (bringing the tally up to 55), Kadima (with a whopping 2 seats to bring up the tally to 57). He will still need another 3 to break 60. He will have to go with Shas and/or UTJ. Most likely he would prefer Shas over UTJ, as UTJ is more extreme in the religious issues (Shas is willing to compromise on the universal draft issue). So, I am afraid our fear will most likely come to fruition....:-(

[NewsGuy]

Well, get ready for lots of speculation, threats, ultimatums, and posturing over the next 4-5 weeks.

FWIW, Netanyahu and Bennet are talking about cooperation, which is good to hear.

[bar-arallu]

Well, Aliyah, the mechanation of politicians, in a mad house like our parliamentary system is not always conducive to the "will of the people". My hot button issues are pretty much the same as many others, with a right slant. High on the list is universal draft, but I also see potential to redefine what that means- 2 years national service w/o military or just basic training plus miluim as we have it now for IDF. Long term, as I mentioned in the other thread, I'd go so far as to preclude people from voting if they do not do said service. At that point, we should experiment in small ways with a volunteer army, to really make it optional but critical for people who are Zionists to invest in Zionism, that is to say freedom for Jews and self determination for Am Israel.

I would also use the carrot of shekels for child support/schools to prompt Heredim and some "Arabs" into joining the national project. If they dont, they can leave or live in squalor.

More over, we need a government that would both delineate and confine the power of unelected Judicial persons, namely those of the SC. They should have zero say in military and sovereignty issues. The US supreme court for example does not judge those things in purview to executive and/or congressional privilege and only do so when there is a constitutional issue. Which begs the question- nothing, absolutely nothing will be done until we have those delineation of powers in government via constitution. It may be too late, I dont know. People are set in their ways, and the political landscape is so tuned to the Machiavellian maneuvering all the parties and politicians are very use to. This is the reason you dont vote for Likud, correct? They have a habit of 1. screwing those that vote for mandates, and 2. have corruption just below or on par with the heinous Avoda, a party awash with Jewish blood on their hands. Maybe more so than Meretz.

Extortion, corruption, obfuscation and loose lips is the nature of the Middle East, and I for one can say I am very uncomfortable with it. Picking a coalition is a far smaller battle to be sure, but the systematic problems will be there after a hundred coalition governments.