Latest Poll results - Palestinians and the Intifada

[Rob]

Jerusalem Media & Communication Center, “established in 1988 by a group of Palestinian journalists and researchers to provide information on events in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip,” recently published its Public Opinion Poll 47, for the month of December. 1200 adults throughout Judea, Samaria and Gaza were interviewed by JMCC pollsters in early December. Questions asked ranged from attitudes towards PLO leaders and factions to level of support for suicide bombings of Israelis.

Select results are excerpted below (from the JMCC website):

“A great majority of Palestinians, 80.7 percent, steadily remained all through the past year supportive of continuing the Intifada, with 46 percent saying its goal is to end the Israeli military occupation and establish an independent Palestinian state based on UN Security Council resolution 242.... Another 47 percent believe the end result of the Intifada is to liberate all of historic Palestine compared with 43 percent in last September and only 39.6 percent in December 2001. Only 16.6 percent steadily remained all through the past year strongly or somewhat oppose the continuation of the Intifada.

“A majority of those interviewed 58.8 said that the Intifada should continue in its current form.... A significant majority, 69.3 percent, believes that Palestinian military operations against Israeli targets are a suitable response during the current political situation.... Of those interviewed, 24 percent opposed military operations and consider them harmful to Palestinian national interests....

“Yet, as in previous surveys this year, 44.7 percent do not see a difference between Palestinian military operations conducted inside Israel or in the occupied territories.... As for suicide bombing operations against Israeli civilians, there is a slight trend of decreased support for them, since 62.7 percent of those interviewed supported them, dropping from 64.3 percent last September, 68.1 last June, 72 percent last March and 74 percent in December 2001. Of those surveyed, 29.8 percent opposed suicide bombings compared with 26 percent in December 2001....

“A great majority of Palestinians, 74.5 percent, do not see a difference between Israeli prime ministerial candidates Ariel Sharon (Likud Party) and Amiram Mitsna (Labor Party) when it comes to opportunities to achieve peace with the Palestinian side.... 16.6 percent said Mitsna should be elected for the sake and interest of peace....

“When asked what is the favored solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, 46.5 percent said a two-state solution compared with 48.8 percent in December 2001, 26.2 percent said a bi-national state in historic Palestine compared with 27.6 percent in December 2001, and 11.2 percent said one Palestinian state with one nationality compared with 14.4 percent in December 2001. In March 2002, 41.6 percent preferred a two-state solution, 31.6 percent said a bi-national state.

“An overwhelming majority of Palestinians, 82.7 percent, said they think there is corruption in the Palestinian Authority (PA) while only 7.8 percent said there is not. Last September 60.6 percent said there is corruption while 28.6 said there is not. When asked to what extent is the Palestinian Authority corrupt, 58.3 percent said to a high degree, 30.7 percent said to a medium degree and 9.8 percent said to a low degree. Only 1.2 percent said they didn’t know....

“Despite Palestinian strong views on the Palestinian Authority, a majority of Palestinians, 56.3 percent expect Palestinian President Yasser Arafat to be re-elected if free, democratic elections were held....

Yasser Arafat and his mainstream Fateh faction are still the most popular amongst the Palestinian public with a slight drop in popularity. A slight drop to 25.5 percent of Palestinians who said Arafat is the most trusted Palestinian figure compared with 27.6 percent last September and 24.5 percent in December 2001.

“The second in line of trust is Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, founder and spiritual leader of Hamas, who was chosen by 11.5 percent of those interviewed as opposed to 8.8 percent last June, and 12.8 percent in December 2001.

“The third in line of trust is Marwan Barghouthi, Fateh leader detained in Israeli jails, who was chosen by 5.2 percent rising from 3.3 percent last September and who was not significantly named by those surveyed in December 2001.

“There are 30 percent of Palestinians who do not trust any Palestinian figure compared with 26.7 percent last September and 33.1 percent in December 2001.

“As for Palestinian factions, Fateh maintained the most trusted faction sliding to 28.1 percent from 32.9 percent last September and 26.1 percent in December 2001.

“The Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, was chosen by 20.1 percent compared with 20.9 percent last September and 21.3 percent in December 2001.

“There are 31.4 percent of Palestinians who do not trust any faction compared with 25.8 percent last September and 30.4 percent in December 2001.”

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/article.php3?id=1784

http://www.jmcc.org/publicpoll/results/2002/no47.htm

[takeo]

Those opinion polls do not correspond with the results of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research the main polling institute. It may depend upon the questions asked.
Here we go, latest poll end november 2002:

"1) The Peace Process:


54% support the peace initiative called the "road map," 42% oppose it

76% support a mutual cessation of violence by Palestinians and Israelis; last August only 48% supported a gradual ceasefire between the two sides.

56% support taking measures by the PA to prevent armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel after reaching an agreement on mutual cessation of violence even though 82% are worried that such measures may lead to internal Palestinian strife. This result is similar to the findings of the March 1996 poll in which 59% supported the measures taken by the PA against the Islamists who organized a series of suicide attacks inside Israel in February and March of that year.

73% believe that a return to the peace process would be impeded if the PA failed to take security measures to prevent attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel after reaching an agreement on mutual cessation of violence. This result too is similar to the findings of the March 1996 poll.

However, 66% continue to believe that armed confrontations have so far helped achieve Palestinian rights in ways that negotiations could not

As in our two previous polls in May and August, 53% support armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel while 43% oppose them. But support for attacks against soldiers in the West Bank and Gaza reach 91% and against settlers 89%.

Only 16% expect a return to negotiations and an end to armed attacks soon"

"73% support reconciliation between the two peoples after reaching a peace agreement and establishing a Palestinian state. This is similar to our previous findings during the last two years.

After reaching a peace agreement, 83% would support open borders between Israel and Palestine and 66% would support joint economic institutions and ventures, but only 27% would support joint political institutions, 37% would support taking legal steps to prohibit incitement against Israel, and 8% would support the adoption of school curriculum that recognizes the state of Israel and does not the return of all Palestine to the Palestinians

40% believe that Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation is not possible ever, while 50% believe that most Israelis bthat reconciliation is not possible ever "

"Only 40% give confidence to the new Palestinian government while 51% refuse to give it confidence

Only 37% believe that the new government will be able to carry out the needed political reform; 37% believe it will be able to fight corruption; 38% believe it will be able to improve the economic conditions; and 26% believe that it will be able to properly manage relations with Israel

85% support and 13% oppose internal and external calls for fundamental political reform in the PA

73% Support and 24% oppose the appointment or election of a Palestinian prime minister

47% support and 49% oppose changing the current Palestinian political system to a parliamentary system in which power would reside in the hands of a prime minister while the position of the president would be ceremonial"

"84% believe that there is corruption in the PA; among those, 62% believe that corruption will increase or remain the same in the future

Only 25% are convinced that reform measures taken by the Palestinian minister of finance will be sufficient to put an end to financial corruption in the PA"

"88% support and 11% oppose a democratic system with the following characteristics: periodic elections, a president with a limited term in office, freedom to form political parties, free press without censorship, an independent judiciary, and respect for human rights

94% support holding periodic elections, 78% support the election of a president for a limited term only, 76% support complete freedom to form political parties, 74% support freedom of the press with no government censorship, 75% support an independent judiciary, and 98% support respect for human rights

Only 19% give PA democracy a positive evaluation and only 17% expect a democratic system in the Palestinian state. But 66% of the Palestinians give a positive evaluation to the status of democracy and human rights in Israel.

69% do not agree, and 23% agree, with the statement that democratic states do not fight each other

54% believe, and 43% do not believe, that people today can criticize the PA without fear

74% support giving priority to freedom of the press and respect for human rights in accordance with the law even if this contradicted with what the PA may see as the national interest

61% are in favor, and 36% are not in favor, of having provisions in the Palestinian constitution guaranteeing equality for women in giving Palestinian citizenship to their children when the husband is not Palestinian

53% are in favor, and 46% are not in favor, of having provisions in the Palestinian constitution guaranteeing equality between men and women so that a woman could become a president of the Palestinian state "

"Compared to last August, Yasir Arafat's popularity remains unchanged at 35%

Marwan Barghouti receives the second largest support at 21%, followed by Ahmad Yasin (14%), Sa'eb Erikat (9%), Haidar Abdul Shafi (8%), Farouq Qaddoumi (6%), and Hanan Ashrawi (5%)

Fateh receives the support of 27%, Islamist groups 25%, PFLP 3%, and 43% are non-affiliated"

http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2002/p6a.html

[Rob]

However, 66% continue to believe that armed confrontations have so far helped achieve Palestinian rights in ways that negotiations could not

As in our two previous polls in May and August, 53% support armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel while 43% oppose them. But support for attacks against soldiers in the West Bank and Gaza reach 91% and against settlers 89%.

“A majority of those interviewed 58.8 said that the Intifada should continue in its current form.... A significant majority, 69.3 percent, believes that Palestinian military operations against Israeli targets are a suitable response during the current political situation.... Of those interviewed, 24 percent opposed military operations and consider them harmful to Palestinian national interests....

“Yet, as in previous surveys this year, 44.7 percent do not see a difference between Palestinian military operations conducted inside Israel or in the occupied territories.... As for suicide bombing operations against Israeli civilians, there is a slight trend of decreased support for them, since 62.7 percent of those interviewed supported them, dropping from 64.3 percent last September, 68.1 last June, 72 percent last March and 74 percent in December 2001. Of those surveyed, 29.8 percent opposed suicide bombings compared with 26 percent in December 2001....

These opinions are close enough