Roadmap: Conclusion

[Moskal']

When somebody discusses a way to make peace, there is a war. In a war, both sides have a goal, territorial gain, survival or whatever. Once a side has no goal or has no means or will to reach it, it capitulates. Once a peace treaty is violated, a war begins to make the other side either to pay for the damage inflicted or to comply to the treaty.

PLO's goal is clearly visible and often voiced. They officially demand to (more or less unconditionally) hand them over all of Westbank, Gaza and east Yerushalaim + a right of return. They are determined to have a total war until the other side, Israeli government, gives up and accepts their conditions.

Israeli goal, or, better said, the goal of current Israeli government is not clearly defined, but summarized under the word "peace", or "two states solution". Israel is also interested in survival

This "peace" means end of terrorist-intifadan headache. Unfortunately, capitulating before PLO's demands would not bring the end of terrorism or the headache. It also is impossible, as allowing a right of return would be against the survival priciple.

Current Israeli government did not formulate a plan to end the headache, but continued combatting a minor guerilla against it's enemies without undertaking the effort to end the war by an offensive leading to total victory and making the enemy capitulate because of the abscense of a fighting force and any of it's leaders willing to carry on the fight.

When they were offered a model of a "peace plan" by a foreign power, they agreed without even looking closely and changing vital things to reach the goal, the end the headache. For me, it looks like depressive passivity, while the enemy is motivated.

Israeli will is paralized. Once the other side violated the treaty, Israel ignored and continued regarding the treaty as existant. This is a dangerous precedent, allowing the other side to regard the treaty as not binding. To show some activity, they simply done the job wich, according to the treaty, arabs had to do. They tried to kill the criminal Rantissi, but having not explained their motives, reasons and intentions, they earned international condemnation and simply lost yet another PR battle.

I am worried about the future of Israel.

[sharonbn]

I do not think the Intifadah deserves the title "war". You equivilate war with "armed conflict" but it is not the same.

what Israel is engaged in is a fight against terrorism.
When the US engaged the Taliban and El quiada in Afganistan - nobody called it war.
When the British army engaged the IRA - nobody called it war.

Israel's engagement may be more intensified than other such fights - but that is all the difference.

The goals and the means are different when fighting terrorism. Israel, as other soverign countries, does not negotiate with terrorists. Israel never negotiated with Hamas, Jihad et al.
Israel negotiated with PA as the representatives of the Palestinian people and the future government of the Palestinian state.

Israel is not at war with the Palestinians. Israel fights terrorism. Two different concepts.

[Moskal']

When US fought Talibs and al-Quaeda, nobody protested, nor did anybody urge the US to seek a peaceful solution. When you fight Terrorists, there is no peace process but brief elimination of the enemies. And there is nobody to protest. Before Oslo, Israel was fighting a standart anti-terrorist war. But it was foolish enough to give the terrorists the status of political partners.

[richcrassus]

Originally posted by Moskal'
[

I am worried about the future of Israel. [/B]

If the israeli politicians arnt worried, their showing by their actions there not worried, than why should me and u be??

[richcrassus]

f

[richcrassus]

Its all about $$ 500 taxpayers dead through terror attacks is nothing to israel, cos it gets Billions from the usa anyway.
thats why it dosent fight back, if it was another country that was getting nothing from the usa, it would attack the pals, cos it would truly want to defend its taxpaying citizens

[Alfred]

Originally posted by sharonbn
I do not think the Intifadah deserves the title "war". You equivilate war with "armed conflict" but it is not the same.
what Israel is engaged in is a fight against terrorism.

That is why Israel is going to lose this police action against terrorism.

Most likely, in a number of years, Israel will be forced to, or will ask for a re-mandate via the UN. With UN troops on the ground to "guarantee the peace."

That will be the end of Israel. Death by suicide.

[richcrassus]

Originally posted by Alfred
That is why Israel is going to lose this police action against terrorism.

Most likely, in a number of years, Israel will be forced to, or will ask for a re-mandate via the UN. With UN troops on the ground to "guarantee the peace."

That will be the end of Israel. Death by suicide.

No shyte, 'peace keepers' will only stop the israeli army defending itself, but it wont keep the suicide bombers from striking will it, of course not.

It wont be the end of israel as such, it will just mean more jews dead, eventually when enough people die sharon and his cronies will wake up and see whats going on and do whats right, EXPULSION to jordan!!!

[Moskal']

So, this 'Roadmap' ended up like Oslo, by being approved. The second Intifada is over, as it's resources are depleted once again. Now Israel will have another peaceful 'waiting phase' just like during Netanjahu's term.

Maybe it is wise to wait, as this second war found Israel unprepared once again. What is even worse, it found Israel in yet another great recession period, wich lead to an economic crisis. At the same time, USA were having another 'crusade against evil' in the middle east, and again have to appease those angry arabs to get the skyrocketed oil prices a little cheaper once again.

Perhaps Israel will be better prepared for the next Intifada. Perhaps the economy will be more stable at that point of time.

Alas, every Intifada yet Israel has lost. Irreversible concessions are being made just to gain a break in this war. While Sharon formally renunced the Oslo treaty, he didn't dismantle the autonomy, nor did he ban Arafat and his followers and therefore reached no gain during the war. His policy only harassed the enemy with some strikes on questionable targets, while the superior arab PR machine turned them into 'Israeli agression'.

After each Intifada, Israel has less room for decisions. After each Intifada, PLO gains prestige, while Israel loses it. After each war anti-Israel sentiments become louder, more popular amongst common people, and more irrational. In the next Knessets, Avoda will be much stronger.

Will there be peace once arabs will win(by reaching their current goals, not by destroying Israel)? I doubt it. Still everything is possible. Hope never dies.

[jewbyc]

Originally posted by Moskal'
So, this 'Roadmap' ended up like Oslo, by being approved. The second Intifada is over, as it's resources are depleted once again. Now Israel will have another peaceful 'waiting phase' just like during Netanjahu's term.

Maybe it is wise to wait, as this second war found Israel unprepared once again. What is even worse, it found Israel in yet another great recession period, wich lead to an economic crisis. At the same time, USA were having another 'crusade against evil' in the middle east, and again have to appease those angry arabs to get the skyrocketed oil prices a little cheaper once again.

Perhaps Israel will be better prepared for the next Intifada. Perhaps the economy will be more stable at that point of time.

Alas, every Intifada yet Israel has lost. Irreversible concessions are being made just to gain a break in this war. While Sharon formally renunced the Oslo treaty, he didn't dismantle the autonomy, nor did he ban Arafat and his followers and therefore reached no gain during the war. His policy only harassed the enemy with some strikes on questionable targets, while the superior arab PR machine turned them into 'Israeli agression'.

After each Intifada, Israel has less room for decisions. After each Intifada, PLO gains prestige, while Israel loses it. After each war anti-Israel sentiments become louder, more popular amongst common people, and more irrational. In the next Knessets, Avoda will be much stronger.

Will there be peace once arabs will win(by reaching their current goals, not by destroying Israel)? I doubt it. Still everything is possible. Hope never dies.

Why is everybody so quick to count Israel out. not only does it have a large reserve force in its citizins, it also has the support of jews the world over. The us jewery mobilized 100,000 jews in support of israel in one week's time. We will never turn our backs on Israel. G-d gave Israel to the jews. A bunch of women hating terrorists are not going to undo 4000 years of jewish existince

[wellofvow]

Originally posted by sharonbn
I do not think the Intifadah deserves the title "war". You equivilate war with "armed conflict" but it is not the same.

what Israel is engaged in is a fight against terrorism.
When the US engaged the Taliban and El quiada in Afganistan - nobody called it war.
When the British army engaged the IRA - nobody called it war.

Israel's engagement may be more intensified than other such fights - but that is all the difference.

The goals and the means are different when fighting terrorism. Israel, as other soverign countries, does not negotiate with terrorists. Israel never negotiated with Hamas, Jihad et al.
Israel negotiated with PA as the representatives of the Palestinian people and the future government of the Palestinian state.

Israel is not at war with the Palestinians. Israel fights terrorism. Two different concepts.

To begin with your end, I strongly object to this kind of sophistry. When 60-80% of the Palestinians, depending on which poll you're looking at, support "armed struggle" with Israel, I think it's pretty clear that they have declared war against Israel.

Israelis who believe that we are "fighting terrorism", a concept, are deluding themselves. Terrorism may be a concept, like poverty or malnutrition, but poverty and malnutrition do not attack your person. We ARE at war.

As to what "people" call a "war" - the "War of Attrition" (milchemet attasha) was "called" a war, yet Israel's losses were a tiny fraction of the losses since Oslo.

The "VietNam War" was called, at the time it was actually happening, a "conflict". Congress never declared war. But what else would any sane person call it? The VietNam Headache?

[shimshon9]

What would American citizens say if President George W. Bush issued a broad
release, pardoning convicted murderers, rapists and terrorists? That is what
President Bush has ordered Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to do as a
'confidence-building gesture' to the Arab Palestinians so they will trust
that their newly appointed Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) can
get concessions out of the Israelis.

As long as the US belives that by goodwill gestures they will be able to move forward in the peace process there won't be any moving forward, on the contrary, the palestinians will belive they achived all of this because of terror....

http://www.geocities.com/raphael_weil/

[jewbyc]

Originally posted by shimshon9
What would American citizens say if President George W. Bush issued a broad
release, pardoning convicted murderers, rapists and terrorists? That is what
President Bush has ordered Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to do as a
'confidence-building gesture' to the Arab Palestinians so they will trust
that their newly appointed Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) can
get concessions out of the Israelis.

As long as the US belives that by goodwill gestures they will be able to move forward in the peace process there won't be any moving forward, on the contrary, the palestinians will belive they achived all of this because of terror....

http://www.geocities.com/raphael_weil/

I agree 100%.

American jews like myself and some of my friends are very upset with Bushs treatment of Israel and we have let Bush know it. We will not rest while Israel is under siege. The reason I have joined this and other sites is so I can spread the word that together we can make a difference but only if we speak out.

[old-reb]

© 2003 WorldNetDaily.com

The Palestinian terrorist group Hamas is taking advantage of a three-month cease-fire to build more than 1,000 Kassam rockets capable of striking Israel from the Gaza Strip, a senior Israeli Defense Forces officer told reporters yesterday.

Hamas is building up its arsenal during the cessation in hostilities – known as a "hudna" – to change the balance of power if fighting resumes, the officer said, according to the Jerusalem Post.

An IDF brigade commander said his colleagues fear "the opening of the next phase in the conflict will be much more violent."

Tunnels beneath the border between Egypt and Gaza provide routes to smuggle much of the raw materials for the arms to Gaza City or to Khan Yunis, where Hamas is working on a new version of the Kassam with a range of up to 20 miles, the Post said.

That would put Israeli towns such as Ashkelon and Netivot easily within target range, the paper noted.

The senior officer said the Palestinians are digging tunnels – some more than 250 feet deep – "much faster than our ability to stop it."

The officer commended Palestinian Authority leadership for reducing the number of attacks, but insisted they have "not gotten to the root of the problem," the disarmament of Palestinian militants, the Post said.

The PA's only tactic for preventing attacks is negotiation, he said.

Sometimes "they arrest a militant under the most comfortable conditions possible and release him," within hours, he said, according to the Jerusalem daily. The longest incarceration is four days.

The officer said, however, the IDF is reassessing its assumption the PA has the necessary tools to disarm and arrest Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades terrorists, the Post reported.

He believes those groups now have the upper hand over the Palestinian Authority.

"There have been so many arms smuggled in that we can tell by the sheer number that we capture that there must be much more that we don't [capture]," he said.

While Israeli security forces publicly say the PA has 20,000 armed security forces in Gaza alone, privately they count about 12,000, which is closer to the figure given by Palestinian security chiefs.

Many of these men are not nearly as motivated as their Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Al Aqsa counterparts, the Post said.

Those groups could defeat the PA in an all-out battle, said the senior officer.

"The PA is aware of this," he said, according to the Post, "and so the challenge for the Palestinians is to disarm the militant groups peacefully. The PA believes that it can only solve [the issue of the rejectionist groups] by including Hamas in [a future] government."

Last week, the IDF submitted a document to U.S. Middle East envoy John Wolfe, contending the temporary cease-fire brokered under the U.S.-backed "Road Map" peace process is endangering Israel.

The Israeli news service Arutz Sheva said the report shows some 25 explosives manufacturing labs are operating in the West Bank and Gaza along with 20 arms-smuggling enterprises helping to circulate about 50,000 illegal weapons.

The report said the hudna's requirement that Israel not take action against terrorists enables the terrorists to rearm and regroup until they feel it's time to call off the cease-fire.

The term "hudna," dates back to Islam's founding in the 7th century, when Muhammad declared a 10-year hudna with the tribe that controlled Mecca. Later, after rearming, Muhammad attacked the tribe, claiming it had broken the truce. In 1994, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat invoked Muhammad's hudna when he justified the launch of the second intifada during the Oslo peace process.

According to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Hamas has agreed to 10 cease-fires in the past decade and has returned freshly armed after each one.

"It is important to note," the institute said, "that all cease-fire offers have been presented at a time when Hamas needed a moment to step back and regroup after an organizationally exhausting confrontation with a more powerful foe (either Israel or the PA)."

[shimshon9]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by old-reb
[B]© 2003 WorldNetDaily.com

The Palestinian terrorist group Hamas is taking advantage of a three-month cease-fire to build more than 1,000 Kassam rockets capable of striking Israel from the Gaza Strip, a senior Israeli Defense Forces officer told reporters yesterday.

Hamas is utilizing the cease-fire to build more than 1,000 Kassam rockets in
an effort to change the balance of power following the three-month cessation
in hostilities, a senior IDF officer told reporters in the Gaza Strip on
Monday.

This has sparked a fear among IDF officers that should hostilities resume,
"the opening of the next phase in the conflict will be much more violent,"
according to a Gaza brigade commander.

Much of the raw material necessary to build the rockets is smuggled in
myriad tunnels underneath Rafah. From there, the source said, the weapons or
bomb components are driven to Khan Yunis or Gaza City.

It is in those cities, said the senior officer, that Hamas is working on a
new version of the Kassam that could reach "15 kilometers or up to 20 km,"
putting cities such as Ashkelon and Netivot within range.

Some of the more lucrative tunnels whose "engineers" earn a handsome profit
from material smuggled under the Egyptian-Gaza border are believed to be 80
meters underground.

"Unfortunately," he said, "their digging of tunnels is much faster than our
ability to stop it."

Dozens of kilograms of explosives, hundreds of weapons, antitank rockets,
missiles, and thousands of bullets reach terrorist organizations operating
in the Rafah area, which are taking advantage of the situation to replenish
their stocks and rearm, he said.

"The Palestinian Authority is doing nothing to stop the smuggling of huge
amounts of arms, weapons, and ammunition. We estimate that there are eight
to 10 tunnels currently functioning," he said.

In accordance with the understandings reached with the PA, the IDF halted
initiated operations in the Rafah area that focused on demolishing and
destroying the tunnels.

"We destroyed or sealed more than 25 tunnels in the past year. It is
unfortunate that all our achievements appear to have gone down the drain.
The PA, which meant to deal with the situation, is doing nothing, and the
situation is being taken advantage of by all the terrorist organizations who
are receiving the weapons and arms," he said.

The IDF had almost brought to a halt the smuggling of weapons, he said.
"Even the Palestinians admitted that when we operated in the area, the
stream of weapons and ammunition stopped," he said.

The Egyptians also are not doing enough to stop the smuggling, he said. "It
is not as though they are unaware of the vast amounts of weapons and
ammunition being smuggled through."

While the IDF has taken the PA security forces to task for failing to disarm
the terrorist groups, it does commend the PA for a concerted effort in
reducing the level of incitement and for clamping down on terror attacks.
Nonetheless, the IDF says that it has recorded 85 attacks in the Gaza Strip
alone since the declaration of the cease-fire 20 days ago.

While the PA has managed to reduce the number of attacks, it has "not gotten
to the root of the problem" i.e. disarming of the terrorists the senior
officer said.

Especially frustrating for the army, he added, is that the IDF feeds the PA
intelligence tips from time to time hoping that it will act on them. "That
they dealt with [inciting] graffiti and are getting traffic cops back on the
streets is nice, but the main problem for us is not traffic but weapons
smuggling," he said.

Negotiation has so far served as the chief PA method for preventing attacks,
he said. Sometimes "they arrest a militant under the most comfortable
conditions possible and release him" within hours. The longest a militant
has been held, he said, is four days.

Nevertheless, the perception within IDF ranks that the PA has all the
necessary tools to disarm and arrest Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Aksa
Martyrs Brigades terrorists is also giving way.


When asked whether the balance of weapons in the Gaza Strip is tilted toward
the rejectionist groups or the PA, a brigade commander in Gaza hesitated for
a moment, and then noted that the rejectionists probably have the upper
hand.

"There have been so many arms smuggled in that we can tell by the sheer
number that we capture that there must be much more that we don't," he said.
Security sources have for months been publicly saying that the PA boasts a
force of 20,000 armed security personnel in Gaza alone. "They are armed,
have enough jeeps, cars, enough ammunition, and enough courts to arrest
those men and take them to court," said one officer.

But in private, the IDF gives figures much closer to those that PA security
chiefs give about 12,000, sometimes less. Many of these men are not nearly
as motivated as their rejectionist counterparts.

When further pressed, the commander, who works intimately with his PA
counterparts, admitted that in an all-out battle the rejectionist groups
could defeat the PA.

"The PA is aware of this," he said, "and so the challenge is to disarm the
militant groups peacefully. The PA believes that it can only solve the
problem by including Hamas in government."

Standing at what was once considered the most notorious checkpoint in the
Gaza Strip, the commander proudly motioned toward the unceasing flow of
traffic at Katif junction. "It is a great example of how to implement
separation," he said.

"Gaza is a particularly good place to observe separation at work. It has a
clearly demarcated and operational security fence. This allows all efforts
to be made by both sides to prevent terrorists from leaving the Strip."

Nonetheless, the IDF maintains that the road continues to serve as a funnel
for weapons, bombs, and even new recruits from the south of the Strip to the
north.

Settlers travel on a bridge that bypasses the road, reducing to almost zero
the settler-Palestinian friction, one of the IDF's main goals, according to
the senior officer.