Palestinian Poll:57% oppose ending intifada, 56% oppose ending

L@mplighterM · 06-30-2003, 10:43 AM

Monday, June 30, 2003
Palestinian Poll: 9.1% hand over weapons, 57.3% oppose ending armed intifada, 56.2% oppose ending incitement

Palestinian Poll: 9.1% hand over weapons, 57.3% oppose ending armed
intifada, 56.2% oppose ending incitement
PCPO Poll no. 112 Date: 30 Jun 2003

A poll carried out by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) and
prepared by President Dr. Nabil Kukali.

(64.4%) Support to varying degrees the President Arafat
(41.4%) Support, to varying degrees Mahmoud
Abbas "Abu Mazen" as a Palestinian Prime Minister.
(44.9%) support the continuation of the Intifada, while
(37.0%) call for a halt.
(65.4%) Pessimistic from the results of Al-Aqaba and Sharm Al-Sheikh
Summits regarding the future of the just peace between the
Palestinians and Israelis

Majd Kokaly-Information Department:

A poll recently conducted by the PCPO and prepared by Dr.Nabil Kukali
included a random sample of 723 adults, 18 years and older, from Gaza Strip
and West Bank including East Jerusalem.

President of the PCPO, Dr. Nabil Kukali, stated that the poll took place on
June 18-24, 2003 and the average age of the respondents was 31.6 years, and
the margin of error was 3.6+/- percent points.

Kukali also stated that the percentage of female respondents was 48.9%,
while that of the male ones was 51.1%. He also explained that the respondent
's location of residence was as follows: 54.5% city, 26.5% village, and
19.0% refugee camp. He pointed out to the average size of respondents'
families that was 7.1 persons, and the average number of schooling years was
12.07 years.

Dr. Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows:

1.If the Palestinian Authority orders "Fatah Tanzim" and other organizations
indirectly linked to the PA's security services to hand over their weapons
for confiscation or destruction. What do you believe that "Fatah Tanzim" and
other organization should do?
20 Nov 2002/23 Apr 2003/30 Jun 2003
1. Hand over their weapons for confiscation and Destruction 18.7%/19.6%/9.1%
2. Hide their weapons 48.6%/46.5%/49.2%
3. Do nothing 32.7%/33.9%/41.7%

2. If municipality or village council elections being held today, which
political party would you vote for?
1. People's Party 1.1%
2. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) 5.1%
3. Fatah 30.0%
4. Hamas 20.2%
5. Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) 3.2%
6. Islamic Jihad 7.6%
7. Fida 2.6%
8. Popular Struggle (Nidal) Front 1.0%
9. Independents 11.0%
10. None of the above/15.0%
11. Other 3.2%

3. When asked:' to what degree do you support president Arafat"?
9 Jan 2003/27 Mar 2003/30 Jun 2003
1. Strongly support 17.3%/24.8%/31.7%
2. Somewhat Support 26.7%/28.5%/32.7%
3. Somewhat oppose 25.7%/27.9%/22.3%
4. Strongly oppose 29.8%/16.4%/7.2%
5. No Opinion 0.4%/2.4%/6.1%

4. How likely is it that peace will prevail with Israel in the near future?
20 Nov 2002/27 Mar 2003/30 Jun 2003
A great possibility 8.4%/9.8%/7.2%
Possible 20.5%/41.5%/37.1%
Some what impossible 19.5%/15.9%/20.4%
Totally impossible 33.5%/20.0%/22.6%
I don't know/I refuse to answer 18.1%/12.8%/12.7%

5.Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly
oppose the current Israeli - Palestinian security coordination?
9 Jan 2003/27 Mar 2003/30 Jun 2003
1. Strongly support 10.8%/4.1%/10.4%
2. Somewhat support 31.4%/28.7%/31.0%
3. Somewhat oppose 14.7%/22.7%/13.8%
4. Strongly oppose 25.9%/31.2%/30.7%
5. No opinion 17.2%/13.3%/14.1%

6. Are you Optimistic or Pessimistic from the results of Al-Aqaba and Sharm
Al-Sheikh Summits regarding the future of the just peace between the
Palestinians and Israelis?
30 Jun 2003
1. Pessimistic 65.4%
2. Optimistic 20.3%
3. Do not know 14.3%

7. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly
oppose the notion that says that the political process (i.e. peace process)
is the best thing we can get under current conditions (i.e. international
changes):
9 Jan 2003/27 Mar 2003/30 Jun 2003
1. Strongly support 14.1%/17.0%/15.9%
2. Somewhat support 34.9%/36.8%/32.4%
3. Somewhat oppose 18.7%/17.5%/15.1%
4. Strongly oppose 20.2%/15.0%/17.2%
5. Do not know 12.1%/13.7%/19.4%

8. Some people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip support the continuation of
the Intifada, while others call for a halt to it which of these two opinions
is closer to yours?
9 Jan 2003/27 Mar 2003/30 Jun 2003
1. Continuation of the Intifada 46.9%/34.3%/44.9%
2. Halting the Intifada 40.9%/51.6%/37.0%
3. Do not know / refuse to answer 12.2%/14.1%/18.1%

9.Do you think that there is a Palestinian leader other than Yaser Arafat
who is able to sign a peace treaty with the Israelis at present, or not?
12 Nov 2002/27 Mar 2003/30 Jun 2003
Yes 26.6%/33.3%/19.7%
No 45.5%/33.8%/53.5%
I don't know 27.8%/32.8%/26.8%

10. Please, express the extent of your support to appointing Mr. Mahmoud
Abbas "Abu Mazen " as a Palestinian Prime Minister?
27 Mar 2003/30 Jun 2003
1. Strongly agree 16.0%/6.1%
2. Somewhat agree 26.2%/35.3%
3. Somewhat disagree 20.5%/17.2%
4. Strongly disagree 21.2%/29.2%
5. No Opinion 16.1%/12.2%

11. Do you believe or not believe that if the Israeli government's taking
serious and sincere measures to lift the siege and security belt on the
Palestinian territories will alleviate violence?
20 November 200/29 January 2003/30 Jun 2003
1. Yes 28.7%/26.8%/29.9%
2. To some extent 35.8%/34.0%/43.2%
3. No 25.8%/32.4%/17.6%
4. Do not know 9.7%/6.8%/9.3%

12. To which extent do you agree or disagree the statement that " The start
of serious and sincere negotiations between the Palestinians and Israeli
leaderships will bring peace to the region"?
30 Jun 2003
1. Strongly agree 13.9%
2. Somewhat agree 37.0%
3. Somewhat disagree 23.7%
4. Strongly disagree 13.9%
5. No Opinion11.5%

13. The Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas "Abu Mazen" called for a
halt of the suicide attacks against the Israeli civilians to give a chance
for resuming the negotiations with the Israelis. Do you support or oppose
this call?
30 Jun 2003
1. Strongly support 15.4%
2. Somewhat support 26.1%
3. Somewhat oppose 20.6%
4. Strongly oppose 28.2%
5. Do not know 9.7%

14. Abu Mazen mentioned in his speech at Al-Aqaba summit held on June4, 2003
that "We shall exert all efforts and employ all our possibilities to bring
the armed Intifada to an end. We have to employ the peaceful means to end
the occupation and the suffering of the Palestinians and the Israelis and to
build up the Palestinian State". Do you support or Oppose this quotation?
30 Jun 2003
1. Support 24.6%
2. Oppose 57.3%
3. Do not know 18.1%

15. "Abu Mazen" mentioned in his speech: " We shall work against any form of
instigation to violence and hatred, and by whatever means such instigation
may be. We shall carry out measures from our side to warrant that no any
such instigation will arise from the Palestinian institutions". Do you
support or oppose this quotation? ?
30 Jun 2003
1. Support 24.1%
2. Oppose 56.2%
3. Do not know 19.7%

16. How do you in general evaluate the performance of Mr. Mahmoud Abbas "
Abu Mazen" at Al-Aqaba Summit, which has been attended by King Abdullah,
President George Bosh and the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon?
30 Jun 2003
1. Good 8.4%
4. Fair 31.6%
5. Bad 51.9%
6. Do not know 8.1%

http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=17432

L@mplighterM · 06-30-2003, 11:43 AM

This poll makes it quite clear that the inhabitants of the WB and GS are not interested in establishing peace with their neighbors. You can lead a horse to the roadmap to peace but you canâ€™t make the Palestinians drink it.

The poll indicates that thereâ€™s an overwhelming support for terrorist organizations and that is likely to remain.

ibrodsky · 06-30-2003, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by L@mplighterM
This poll makes it quite clear that the inhabitants of the WB and GS are not interested in establishing peace with their neighbors. You can lead a horse to the roadmap to peace but you canâ€™t make the Palestinians drink it.

The poll indicates that thereâ€™s an overwhelming support for terrorist organizations and that is likely to remain.

I think the poll gives mixed signals.

There are many people in the "somewhat support" and "somewhat oppose" as well as "don't know" categories.

Keep in mind that Palestinians have undergone years of brainwashing, and that there is no tradition of freedom of thought and expression in the Arab world.

The poll certainly exudes pessimism. But it also suggests that many Palestinians don't know what to think. I found it amazing that about 1/3 would not say they support Arafat.

L@mplighterM · 06-30-2003, 06:23 PM

I gave the poll a second look and it seems to me that males and females are about equally bloodthirsty. Based on the actions of the terrorists and their supporters I wouldnâ€™t have a problem waging war on a population that holds the opinions mentioned in the poll.

Bearing in mind that all it takes is about 20% to start a revolution it seems to me that polls like this arenâ€™t conducive to peace with Jews.

Nevertheless I wish the Israeli government and Israelis luck in their endeavor to make peace with the Palestinians.

Independent · 08-10-2004, 07:56 AM

There are different polls with different results. Sometimes, polls ask tricky questions. But, it is normal for humans to dislike conflict, especially when such can be avoided.

The poll, which was conducted by a Washington- and Brussels-based group called Search for Common Ground claims that 72% of Palestinians and Israelis agree to the creation of an independent Palestinian state, based on 1967 borders. The poll also states that less than one in five Palestinians aspire to a state on all of historic Palestine, and less than one in five Israelis demand a Greater Israel.

http://web.israelinsider.com/bin/en.jsp?enPage=ArticlePage&enDisplay=view&enDispWha t=object&enDispWho=Article^l1737&enZone=Diplomacy& enVersion=0&

scattergood · 08-10-2004, 10:03 AM

Independent:
There are different polls with different results. Sometimes, polls ask tricky questions. But, it is normal for humans to dislike conflict, especially when such can be avoided.

The poll, which was conducted by a Washington- and Brussels-based group called Search for Common Ground claims that 72% of Palestinians and Israelis agree to the creation of an independent Palestinian state, based on 1967 borders. The poll also states that less than one in five Palestinians aspire to a state on all of historic Palestine, and less than one in five Israelis demand a Greater Israel.

http://web.israelinsider.com/bin/en.jsp?enPage=ArticlePage&enDisplay=view&enDispWha t=object&enDispWho=Article^l1737&enZone=Diplomacy& enVersion=0&

It is exactly for this reason that looking at the question is important, which is why ALL the questions were actually posted above. In the article you provided a link to the questions ARE NOT listed, but the following tidbit was:

"72 percent of the Palestinians questioned said they would be willing to end violence if Israel were to agree to the creation of a Palestinian state in line with Palestinian criteria"

I take this to mean that 72% of Arabs would end violence if Israel agreed to what they were demanding. Which means that 28% don't agree to end violence, EVEN IF Israel agrees to what the Arabs are demanding.

Which then presents the very tricky issue of:

1) The way to get the 72% of Arabs to end violence is to acquiece to all of their demands,which doesn't really work for Israel in the first place. The Right of Return, Jerusalem, Jews living in Gaza and WB are all still OPEN issues even under Oslo (although the Arabs don't think they should be open issues).

2) IF Israel agrees to Arab demands, and the 28% of those that don't agree to end violence conduct some terrorist operation, what happens?

3) Will the 72% which this study claims would end all violence against Israel, take up arms against the 28% and protect Israel?

4) Will the 72% understand and allow Israel to take steps to defend themselves?

I think the only honest answer is NO to both #3 and #4. So we will be excatly where we are today, even IF we believed the study you cited and Israel did everything the Arabs were demanding.

So, let's not play games here, post the questions for the study as is done above so we can make an apples to apples comparison and not pick and choose what we want.

MichaelC · 08-10-2004, 11:16 AM

Originally Posted by scattergood

It is exactly for this reason that looking at the question is important, which is why ALL the questions were actually posted above. In the article you provided a link to the questions ARE NOT listed, but the following tidbit was:

"72 percent of the Palestinians questioned said they would be willing to end violence if Israel were to agree to the creation of a Palestinian state in line with Palestinian criteria"

I take this to mean that 72% of Arabs would end violence if Israel agreed to what they were demanding. Which means that 28% don't agree to end violence, EVEN IF Israel agrees to what the Arabs are demanding.

Which then presents the very tricky issue of:

1) The way to get the 72% of Arabs to end violence is to acquiece to all of their demands,which doesn't really work for Israel in the first place. The Right of Return, Jerusalem, Jews living in Gaza and WB are all still OPEN issues even under Oslo (although the Arabs don't think they should be open issues).

2) IF Israel agrees to Arab demands, and the 28% of those that don't agree to end violence conduct some terrorist operation, what happens?

3) Will the 72% which this study claims would end all violence against Israel, take up arms against the 28% and protect Israel?

4) Will the 72% understand and allow Israel to take steps to defend themselves?

I thin the only honest answer is NO to both #3 and #4. So we will be excatly where we are today, IF we believed the study you cited.

So, let's not play games here, post the questions for the study as is done above so we can make an apples to apples comparison and not pick and choose what we want.

Excellent observations, Scattergood. Puts things in a very precise perspective.

**Mediocrates** · 08-10-2004, 11:29 AM

The wonderful thing about being a tin-plated arabian autocrat is that you don't have to worry about polls and opinions. There is only opinion that exists: yours. And people don't swarm over the fence in mass human wave attacks with their bare hands. Instead there is a cadre of organized, supported, funded, recruited, trained, commanded and transported human bomb delivery systems and sniper-sapper teams that go out and kill people wherever they are bound to find them. The opinions of ordinary people don't matter all that much even if you thought you could reliably ascertain them.

Who thinks that if through some bizarre confluence of cosmic events the PLO is able to secure the 'right' of return for 50,000 Palestinians that 'ordinary' people would be given a chance? Are you smoking cactus and camel sh**t again? The first cut would be to the PLO loyal and useful as baksheesh. The next cut would be for the military wing's infrastructure. The third would be the PR/Political wing to bolster the Arab lists in the Knesset. Whatever bedraggled photo op families are left would be given scraps. And then the PLO would turn around and whine and complain about how those people are apparently treated by the bigbad Zionist devil.

Please, get serious.

RichardP · 08-10-2004, 03:40 PM

Yup, letâ€™s get serious; however, I believe itâ€™s too late for some of those who as true-believers of Arafat, the PA and their cause.
Too them, so it seems, the likes of Arafat and his bum-buddies are icons to be venerated, not the mass-murderers of Jews, and the cause of their own peopleâ€™s miseries.
Though, totally preposterous, they choose to believe otherwiseâ€¦ as said, the Big Bad Zionist Devil.

Elisheba · 08-10-2004, 07:51 PM

Originally Posted by Mediocrates

The wonderful thing about being a tin-plated arabian autocrat is that you don't have to worry about polls and opinions...

Holy Manliness, Batman!

I've never seen such a cool post by you. WOW

peacelover · 09-27-2004, 07:25 AM

Originally Posted by ibrodsky

I think the poll gives mixed signals.

There are many people in the "somewhat support" and "somewhat oppose" as well as "don't know" categories.

Correct, and it's them we need to seize upon. I truly believe there will never be peace until the Palestinians *want* there to be peace. And these "floating voters" (for want of a better word) could be key. As you rightly say Ibrodsky, these people have been subjected to indoctrination all their lives. I personally would totally support Israel storming the Palestinian media and imposing an indoctrination of their own kind - turn your backs on terror, and your life will be better. After all, it's the truth.

Once peace with israel has been estabished as a socially acceptable opinion, hopefully we'd see a snowball effect.

Sadly, not likely in the climate there is in the Palestinian territories at the moment

**Mediocrates** · 09-27-2004, 07:45 AM

But where does that matter? I tend to think that you can drag anyone along kicking and screaming if they believe that in part some of what you're forcing them to do is in their interest. The fact is you will NEVER get a dePLOizination of Palestine. You will never de Nazify it and if you can't then you will always have a substantial minority who only grudgingly accept their new civilian roles. The key is, can you beat into their heads the basic premise that even that is ultimately in their own best interests? Better they should work at assembling a functioning society with courts and garbage collection and water bills and captial credit. Work not on uplifting the miserables but on improving the lives of the middle class. When they are better off, the social forces to commit mayhem drop off. The old radicals can go to the Terrorists Retirement home and talk about the good old days. And as Jesus said, "The poor will always be with you...." so don't try to eradicate that before moving on, either.

**MGB8** · 09-28-2004, 08:40 PM

I don't know if I'm quite that pessimistic, Medio.

I believe that democratization and De-Jihadization of the Pal Arabs will happen AFTER other Arab nations are de-Jihadid and Democratized.

If Iraq is succesful...if Jordan continues on a path towards more representation...if Qatar continues its steps... and if these successes force a challenge to the status quo in the rest of the Arab world...then, and really, only then, will we see the Pal Arabs follow their brethren.

Hisardut · 09-29-2004, 01:57 AM

He pointed out to the average size of respondents'
families that was 7.1 persons

this is why democracy wont work

**Mediocrates** · 09-29-2004, 04:10 AM

Originally Posted by MGB8

I don't know if I'm quite that pessimistic, Medio.

I believe that democratization and De-Jihadization of the Pal Arabs will happen AFTER other Arab nations are de-Jihadid and Democratized.

If Iraq is succesful...if Jordan continues on a path towards more representation...if Qatar continues its steps... and if these successes force a challenge to the status quo in the rest of the Arab world...then, and really, only then, will we see the Pal Arabs follow their brethren.

I don't doubt that those other places have potential. I have no doubt that the Palestinians have no potential. Palestine is the sine qua non of everything the arab world loves to hate about everything on earth. It's the monument to their own failure they can't live without.