Myth of the Arab WOMB

Noam · 12-07-2003, 02:40 AM

I need some feedback on this. Tell me if I am a complete fool or just half of one.

We only hear lately by everyone from Beilin to Amos Oz to even Ehud Olmert last few days....WE ARE FACING THE DEMOGRAPHIC BOMB that will defeat us.
So far we had the RUSSIAN immigration that saved us...but last 2 years on 65,000 Jews immigrated to Israel and our birth rate is 2.9 vs 5.6 (or whatever) and in 2025 they will outvote us if we want to maintain a democracy (which we must!)

There is something very wrong in this doomsayers omen and I can't put my finger on it. I think I have an inkling. Tell me if it has merit.

The error is in the BASIC TENET.

This is NOT THE ISSUE.

ISRAEL IS A REFUGE PLACE.
It is the ONLY HOME ON THE PLANET JEWS CAN RUN TO in case of another holocaust (Shiekh Yassin DID declare this weekend to 'DER SPIEGEL' that JEWS DO NOT DESERVE SUCH A HOME IN THE MIDDLE EAST and they should all return to Europe!).

There are 12.3 MILLION JEWS in the world.

ISRAEL MUST BE ABLE TO ACCOMDATE ALL OF THEM if such a DOOMSDAY HAPPENS IN THE FUTURE.

I doubt the ARABS will multiply to 12 million in such a tiny area (Natural selection--Darwinism, Clitorectomy, Sexual Rage, Blood revenge and simple stench will stop procreation at a ceratin point)

So the ISSUE is NOT whether Palestinians will be a majority in Israel in the coming years...but that ISRAEL MUST HAVE ENOUGH TERRA to ACCOMODATE ALL OF THE JEWISH PEOPLE.

THEY MAY CHOOSE NOT TO COME... but the ONLY raison Detre of ISrael is to BE A HOME FOR THE JEWISH DIASPORA....

So I think that all the naysayers can take their numbers threat and shove them where the sun does not shine...
ISRAEL IS HERE TO STAY if it is to be such a home.

IF IT IS NOT--IT SHOULD SELF DESTRUCT.

Thanks in advance for any feedback.

Oh Jerusalem · 12-07-2003, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by Noam
There is something very wrong in this doomsayers omen and I can't put my finger on it.

Perhaps that they're correct.

When you say Palestinians, I assume you're also tossing in Israeli Arab citizens.

Even if Israel were to striclty go back to 67 borders, including redividing Jerusalem, how long will it take for Israel, in its old 48 borders, to lose a Jewish majority, assuming current birth rates and nothing exceptional happening in the interim?

Remember, Beilin & Co. want to return everything and then some and then establish here a state for all its citizens.

What's the solution? Either transfer, limited citizenship for non-Jewish Israeli citizens or both.

Of course, a major divine miracle could occur anytime by then but I was told not to rely on miracles.

Communication · 12-07-2003, 04:34 AM

hmmm....it might be possible to get more Jews from Europe that way (it's hard to say because I don't have first hand experience living as a Jew in Europe), but the only way that you are going to get Jews from North America to come in large numbers is for there to be peace. In the meantime, it helps to make a concerted effort to get diaspora Jews interested in learning hebrew. If I were very wealthy (which I'm not, sorry) I would invest in making Israeli cinema top notch as well as the music industry, for starters. And again, get diaspora Jews interested in learning hebrew (which, btw, is already happening anyway).

alexbmn · 12-07-2003, 01:36 PM

there's nothing wrong with 1967 borders that is June 11th ,1967.

Barak · 12-07-2003, 01:37 PM

well, I'm sure that if the current situation will continue in Europe, there will be much more Jews making aliyah. I myself are going to make aliyah as soon as I have my finances in order, then I will go to my real home asap. The problems are for me not the driving thing to make aliyahm just the fact that I never felt at ease here, and every time I was in Israel (noutnless times) I always felt at home. So I know my future will be in Israel.

But also others who don't realy feel at home in Israel will be more and more inclined to make alyah, due to the simple fact that the economic situation is becoming worse, the security situation is also become more serious (just wait till the first terror attacks surface in western europe). There is also the fact that there is an increasing amount of muslims living in Europe that create a lot of friction in most places, combined with the rise in anti-semetism, doesn't make the place really nice to live in as a Jew.

So it will be much easier for Jews to make aliyah, since the main things that kept them away, security, economy, anti-semitism, are all on the rise/decline.

Only thing why I wouldn't want to see all the Jews living in Israel is the fact that it would be that much easier to kill us all. The good thing from the golah is that we can't be killed, and even though there are enough willing to try, because we are not in just 1-2 places, they can't reach us all.

Oh Jerusalem · 12-07-2003, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by Barak
The good thing from the golah is that we can't be killed, and even though there are enough willing to try, because we are not in just 1-2 places, they can't reach us all.

How about 50% of you or is your memory so short?

Golus mentality.

Noam · 12-07-2003, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by Barak
well, I'm sure that if the current situation will continue in Europe, there will be much more Jews making aliyah. I myself are going to make aliyah as soon as I have my finances in order, then I will go to my real home asap. The problems are for me not the driving thing to make aliyahm just the fact that I never felt at ease here, and every time I was in Israel (noutnless times) I always felt at home. So I know my future will be in Israel.

But also others who don't realy feel at home in Israel will be more and more inclined to make alyah, due to the simple fact that the economic situation is becoming worse, the security situation is also become more serious (just wait till the first terror attacks surface in western europe). There is also the fact that there is an increasing amount of muslims living in Europe that create a lot of friction in most places, combined with the rise in anti-semetism, doesn't make the place really nice to live in as a Jew.

So it will be much easier for Jews to make aliyah, since the main things that kept them away, security, economy, anti-semitism, are all on the rise/decline.

Only thing why I wouldn't want to see all the Jews living in Israel is the fact that it would be that much easier to kill us all. The good thing from the golah is that we can't be killed, and even though there are enough willing to try, because we are not in just 1-2 places, they can't reach us all.

My point is not about PHYSICAL Aliah. My point is about looking way into the future--2-3 centureis ahead....
If Israel is indeed the restoration of the Jewish People to its land---we must take the Viter Cook.... and think many "WHAT-IFS" and think of the worst case scenario...

G-d ordered Joshua to CLEAN the land of Canaan. It was meant to be a Jewish home (as Promised to Abraham)...

The Beilins and Sarids of our generation-- have absolutely no intention of preserving Israel as THE HOME OF THE JEWISH PEOPLE (they are more interested in Social justice)...

Well, I don't know if I am right...
We need another Ben Gurion at these trying times (Despite all his personal horrible shortcomings). WE DO NOT HAVE.
Nistarot Darchei Haboreh.

Oh Jerusalem · 12-08-2003, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by Noam
We need another Ben Gurion at these trying times (Despite all his personal horrible shortcomings).

With all due respect for BG's accomplishments, we need another Yoseph or Moshe or Yehoshua. Reach higher.

Noam · 12-09-2003, 03:45 AM

Funny.

CHagay Segal "bothered" to give a partial answer.
He has a piece in Today's Maariv Deot:
Boils down to
Demographic Manipulation:
Ministers and Knesset memebers are falling prey to arithmetic traps the konniving Left is laying snare to them...

Nobody bothers to reallhy check...
1. The assumption that Natural producing rates among Arabs will remain the same may be false.. Afater 6 day war Prof Yehuda Don anticipated that until 1981 Arabs and Jews numbers will equal...22 years later he is wrong
2. Inclusion of hundreds of thousands of non Jewish Russians (Arnon Sofer) is not logical. These are people who die and serve in the IDF..they are NOT AMONGST OUR ENEMIES
3.Including 1 million Arabs in Gaza as if they are going to invade and participate inIsraeli elections. FALSE...

All in all.... It is More Malthusian than Noachic.

**Mediocrates** · 12-09-2003, 06:17 AM

Across the Arab world we see, at least in the OPEC countries vast social welfare states where most people are un/underemployed, uneducated, unmotivated, held down. This is part of what leads to vast overpopulation. In Saudi Arabia for example

Total population
24,293,844
note: includes 5,576,076 non-nationals (July 2003 est.)

Age structure:
0-14 years: 42.3% (male 5,245,413; female 5,028,595)
15-64 years: 54.8% (male 7,700,121; female 5,622,099)
65 years and over: 2.9% (male 393,173; female 304,443) (2003 est.)

*note: 60% of the population is under age 30 today.

Median age:
total: 18.8 years
male: 20.9 years
female: 16.8 years (2002)

Population growth rate:
3.27% (2003 est.)

Birth rate:
37.2 births/1,000 population (2003 est.)

(CIA Factbook, source).

Extrapolating http://www.csis.org/burke/saudi21/sa...ivilgraphs.pdf

Yields ~60% of the total population under the age of 20 by the year 2025. That represents non productive population.

Now consider that GNP per capita growth is already flat - with GNP barely keeping pace with the population growth. And consider that looking foarward the GNP has to grow @ 3.3% now and extending to 4.7% in 25 years just to keep pace. And clearly with FLAT growth over the last 5 years it's clear that Saudi Arabia will, on it's current course and speed, slip further and further back.

We used to think that there was a 'middle class' effect to population, that as household income increased family size decreased because instead of needing 'farm hands' and adjusting for infant mortality, households would want to spend less on fewer people.

Sort of makes sense, look at western Europe. But in the case of the Arab states, with their vast oil wealth they've been able to afford a social welfare system that supports much of the entire populace with no cost to them. As long as the oil flowed it was cheap and easily to create money and people, who now had little to do all day, could, to be crude, breed w/o limits.

But eventually it catches up as we see in the Saudi kingdom. Eventually, and that day is not so far away, most of the people will be children, and children having children and there will be not only not enough oil and wealth to support them, but simply not enough people to work at all. And then the whole thing crashes down.

I wonder if the Palestinians who don't have any natural resources to tear out of the ground, will experience this? I do understand that the overly generous Israeli social welfare system may crumble as a result but as far as the Palestinians over in Ramallah are concerned, they don't have so much to lose. Unless of course a Free Palestine becomes a permanent world charity case who's main national source of income is donations and aid. It's not that far fetched.

And one which, you and I both understand will form the basis of the next wave of antiIsraeli antisemitism. The world, that wonderful EU/pan arab/neo leftist world will scream about rich Jewish stereotypes who have so much money and why they should be required by the UN, etc. to take on broke Palestine as their personal chore.

Mark my words, the day Palestine is free is the day you start reading editorials that the 'world' can now safely walk away from the disaster they helped create and leave the entirety of the Palestinians economic problems to the Israelis to solve.