poll: majority Israelis and Palestinians want the "Clinton Plan" borders

[takeo]

Joint Palestinian-Israeli Public Opinion Poll



IN THE POST ARAFAT ERA, PALESTINIANS AND ISRAELIS ARE MORE WILLING TO COMPROMISE: FOR THE FIRST TIME MAJORITY SUPPORT FOR CLINTON’S PERMANENT STATUS SETTLEMENT PACKAGE



These are the results of the most recent poll conducted jointly by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem *



Total Palestinian sample size is 1319 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in 120 randomly selected locations between December 30 and 31, 2004.The margin of error is 3%.The Israeli sample includes 501 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew Arabic or Russian between January 9 and 10 2005. The margin of error is 4.5%.

The poll was planned and supervised by Dr. Yaacov Shamir, Truman Fellow and professor of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, currently at the US Institute of Peace, and Dr. Khalil Shikaki, professor of Political Science and director of PSR.



For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Ayoub Mustafa, at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Dr. Yaacov Shamir at tel. 202-429-3870 or email jshamir@usip.org.



Table of Contents:

(1) Final Borders and Territorial Exchange.

(2) Refugees.

(3) Jerusalem.

(4) Demilitarized Palestinian state.

(5) Security Arrangements.

(6) End of Conflict.

(7) The Whole Package.

(8) Mutual Recognition of Identity.

(9) Summary Table Of The Findings.



SUMMARY OF FINDINGS:



The joint poll aimed at examining possible changes in Palestinian and Israeli public attitudes in the post Arafat era regarding six basic elements of Israeli-Palestinian permanent status negotiations: (1) Final borders and territorial exchange, (2) Refugees, (3) Jerusalem, (4) A demilitarized Palestinian state, (5) Security arrangements, and (6) End of conflict. Questions regarding similar and identical elements were asked in December 2003. While the 2003 elements were presented as constituting the main components of the Geneva Initiative, this poll made no mention of the Geneva initiative and the elements were presented as constituting a possible permanent status agreement. The poll also sought to revisit a question asked in June 2003 regarding public willingness to accept a settlement that would contain a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. The findings indicate a significant increase toward more dovish views among both Israelis the Palestinians compared to the situation 12 and 18 months ago. Here are the main findings:



(1) Final Borders and Territorial Exchange



Among Palestinians 63% support or strongly support and 35% oppose or strongly oppose an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with the exception of some settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be swapped with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with a map that was presented to respondents. The map was identical to that presented to respondents in December 2003. At that time, support for this compromise, with its map, stood at 57% and opposition at 41%.

Among Israelis 55% support and 43% oppose a Palestinian state in the entirety of Judea Samaria and the Gaza Strip except for several large blocks of settlements in 3% of the West Bank which will be annexed to Israel. The Palestinians will receive in return territory of similar size along the Gaza Strip. In December 2003, 47% of the Israelis supported this component while 50% opposed it.



(2) Refugees



Among Palestinians, 46% support and 50% oppose a refugee settlement in which both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242. The refugees would be given five choices for permanent residency. These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas. Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of these states. As a base for its decision Israel will consider the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees would be entitled to compensation for their “refugeehood” and loss of property. In December 2003, only 25% agreed with an identical compromise while 72% opposed it.

Among Israelis 44% support such an arrangement compared to 35% who supported it in December 2003.



(3) Jerusalem



In the Palestinian public 44% support and 54% oppose a Jerusalem compromise in which East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israel sovereignty. The Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that would come under Israeli sovereignty. In December 2003, an identical compromise had a similar reception with 46% supporting it and 52% opposing it.

Among Israelis however, only 39% agree and 60% disagree to this arrangement in which the Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem including the old city and the Temple Mount will come under Palestinian sovereignty, the Jewish neighborhoods including the Jewish quarter and the Wailing Wall will come under Israeli sovereignty, East Jerusalem will become the capital of the Palestinian state and West Jerusalem the capital of Israel. In December 2003 41% supported this arrangement and 57% opposed it.



(4) Demilitarized Palestinian state



Among Palestinians 27% support and 61% oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state that would have no army, but would have a strong security force and would have a multinational force deployed in it to ensure its security and safety. Israel and Palestine would be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other. A similar compromise that contained all these elements with the exception of the part on the deployment of a multinational force received in December 2003 the support of 36% and the opposition of 63%.

Among Israelis 68% agree and 30% disagree to this arrangement compared to 61% who agreed and 38% who disagreed to it a year ago in December 2003.



(5) Security Arrangements



In the Palestinian public 53% support and 45% oppose a compromise whereby the Palestinian state would have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace, but Israel will have the right to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and would maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. A multinational force would remain in the Palestinian state and in its border crossings for an indefinite period of time. The task of the multinational force would be to monitor the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including the presence at its international crossings. In December 2003, a similar compromise that contained these same elements with the exception of the part on the multinational force received the support of 23% and the opposition of 76%.

In the Israeli public 61% support and 37% oppose this arrangement compared to 50% who supported it and 46% who opposed it a year ago in December 2003

[takeo]

(6) End of Conflict.



In the Palestinian public 69% support and 29% oppose a compromise on ending the conflict that would state that when the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples. An identical question received in December 2003 the support of 42% and the opposition of 55%.

In the Israeli public 76% support and 23% oppose this component in the final status framework. In December 2003, 66% of the Israelis supported it while 33% opposed it.



The Whole Package

Among Palestinians 54% support and 44% oppose the whole package combining the elements as one permanent status settlement. In December 2003, 39% supported and 58% opposed an identical overall combined package presented in the context of the Geneva Initiative.

Among Israelis 64% support and 33% oppose all the above features together taken as one combined package. A year ago only 47% of the Israelis supported and 49% opposed a similar overall package presented in the context of the Geneva initiative.



The main difference between the December 2003 and the December 2004 versions presented to both Israelis and Palestinians is that while the first version stated that the package was that of the Geneva initiative, the second did not. In addition, in presenting the elements of the compromise in December 2004, we merged the parts dealing with the multinational force (presented in 2003 as a separate element) into the two elements of the demilitarized state and the security arrangements.



Mutual Recognition of Identity

Among Palestinians 63% support and 35% oppose the proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there would be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. In June 2003, only 52% of the Palestinians supported this proposal and 46% opposed it.

Among Israelis 70% support and 16% oppose the mutual recognition of identity proposal. In June 2003, 65% of the Israelis supported it and 33% opposed it.



It should be emphasized that these figures have been obtained after a prolonged period of reduced violence between the two sides and during the Palestinian election campaign. In addition as mentioned above the current survey has been detached from the Geneva initiative context within which the December 2003 questions were asked.



SUMMARY TABLE OF THE FINDINGS

Changes in Support for Clinton’s Permanent Settlement Framework Among Israelis and Palestinians in the last year


Israelis

Dec. 2003
Israelis

Jan. 2005
Palestinians Dec. 2003
Palestinians Dec. 2004

1) Borders and Territorial Exchange
47%
55%
57%
63%

2) Refugees
35%
44%
25%
46%

3) Jerusalem
41%
39%
46%
44%

4) Demilitarized Palestinian State
61%
68%
36%
27%

5) Security Arrangements
50%
61%
23%
53%

6) End of Conflict
66%
76%
42%
69%

Overall Package
47%
64%
39%
54%

Mutual Recognition of Identity
65%
70%
52%
63%




* This joint survey was conducted with the support of the Ford Foundation Cairo office and the Japanese Government

http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/20...ections05.html

[takeo]

This is good news, Israeli's and Palestinians are ready for peace and compromise. Both want to green line (with some land exchange) as the permanent border, both want to search for a balanced settlement for the refugee-question, both want to recognise eachother. the only problem remains Jerusalem, but this can be solved as well. the other problem that remains are the politicians and especially the extremists on both sides (many of which are represented on this site) who will do everything in their power to avoid and sabotage peace. So newsguy, ibrodsky, rhodescholar, galgamesh etc. you can no longer claim that your opinion is representative for the Israeli people as a whole. On the contrary to you the Israeli majority wants peace and wants to end the occupation of the territories occupied in 1967.
You can also no longer claim the majority of the Palestinians want the extermination and genocide against the Israeli people as their final goal.

[Reffo]

You can also no longer claim the majority of the Palestinians want the extermination and genocide against the Israeli people as their final goal.

The Palestinians (or any other people for that matter) are influenced by their leaders. Unfortunately my impression is that the more extreme leadership, at best, views any settlement with Israel as a stage in it's final destruction. The other problem is that the so called Palestinian moderates are the flip side of the same coin. They are th "good cop" and the extremists are the "bad cop" but they both want the same thing: the destruction of Israel.

[KettleWhistle]

Yeah, right. A poll published by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, which is based in Ramalla, "Palestine." As if.

And even if it's true, that will only show that many Israelis bought Clinton's lies and agreed to give a part of the Jewish motherland to foreigners. But cheer on, what else can we expect from an anti-Semite like you. After all, you aren't the first to hate your people and motherland: http://fcit.coedu.usf.edu/holocaust/gallery/11548.htm

[takeo]

Yeah, right. A poll published by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, which is based in Ramalla, "Palestine." As if.

And even if it's true, that will only show that many Israelis bought Clinton's lies and agreed to give a part of the Jewish motherland to foreigners. But cheer on, what else can we expect from an anti-Semite like you. After all, you aren't the first to hate your people and motherland: http://fcit.coedu.usf.edu/holocaust/gallery/11548.htm

Hey kettle this is a really lousy try to manipulate information, especially since the information was stated in this same thread: "These are the results of the most recent poll conducted jointly by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem *"

But of course they (the majority of Israeli's!) are all self-hating ignorant blablabla... I didn't expect any other response... but honestly who's the antisemite here, condamning the majority of Israeli population!
"Give a part of the Jewish motherland to foreigners", this is your axioma and whatever reality says can't change your views, so be it, but remember you're belonging to a minority among the Jews, wether in Israel or in the West.

[takeo]

The Palestinians (or any other people for that matter) are influenced by their leaders. Unfortunately my impression is that the more extreme leadership, at best, views any settlement with Israel as a stage in it's final destruction. The other problem is that the so called Palestinian moderates are the flip side of the same coin. They are th "good cop" and the extremists are the "bad cop" but they both want the same thing: the destruction of Israel.

You might be right concerning Hamas and Jihad, even if those will eventually accept a peace-deal (which is likely, they know it's their only chance of political survival) they won't give up their final goal. Yet I think the majority of palestinians and the palestinian leadership at most use those organisations as a tool in the struggle against Israel, indeed good cops/bad cops, but finally those will accept a reasonable compromise with Israel, now they're trying to get the most out of the deal, and that's why they need the bad cops, but once they're becoming a nuisance rather than a tool they'll be eliminated, in the same fashion Arab regimes deal with extremist muslims all over the region once they're no longer usefull. The same once Syria gets back the Golan heights the Hesbollah won't be any of use to them any more.
It's clear the majority of palestinians and the leadership want a deal with Israel, and not Israel's destruction, as these polls indicate as well.

[KettleWhistle]

But of course they (the majority of Israeli's!) are all self-hating ignorant blablabla... I didn't expect any other response... but honestly who's the antisemite here, condamning the majority of Israeli population!
"Give a part of the Jewish motherland to foreigners", this is your axioma and whatever reality says can't change your views, so be it, but remember you're belonging to a minority among the Jews, wether in Israel or in the West.

First of all, it is a minority according to a questionable survey by some shady Pal group--a survey that was done and released pre-Pal election.

But more important, so what if I belong to a minority? Majority of Jews in Ukraine in the late 1800s thought that pogroms were just temporary, and sooner or later they'll be safe. Ditto 1930s Germany. Ditto Stalin's purges. And ditto Stalin's deportations--only that time the Jews got lucky because the bastard died several weeks before they were to be deported. So I'm not fretting about belonging to the minority that choses not to hid behind mommie's skirt. I'm only disappointed that so many of my brethren will never f...ing learn. I guess Barnum was right, there is a sucker born every minute, and most of them to Jewish mothers.

[Mediocrates]

The USIP was instituted by an act of Congress (USA) in 1984. It's reasonably non partisan. Part of the work of this branch of the USIP is to ascertain what public opinion in the middle east is, not whether it's good or bad or right or wrong. In either case the named author has some pretty heavy left leaning street cred:

Jacob Shamir is senior lecturer at the Department of Communication and Journalism at Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He served as the head of the Smart Family Foundation Communication Research Institute at Hebrew University from 1999 to 2002, and has held professorships and lecture positions at the University of Texas at Austin, Rutgers University, Bar-Ilan University, and Tel-Aviv University. He has also written or co-written articles for Political Psychology, Journal of Peace Research, Public Opinion Quarterly, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, and Journalism Quarterly, among others. Shamir has received several grants from institutions in Israel for projects relating to public opinion and peace. He co-directs the only ongoing joint Israeli-Palestinian survey research project with Khalil Shikaki. Shamir received his master's degree and Ph.D. from the School of Journalism and Mass Communication at the University of Minnesota.

So it's axiomatic that the results will lead at least a little in that direction. Moreover it's not necessarily wrong that a certain number of Israelis believe this or will respond this way.

[Reffo]

You might be right concerning Hamas and Jihad, even if those will eventually accept a peace-deal (which is likely, they know it's their only chance of political survival) they won't give up their final goal.

Hamas and Jihad will never accept a real peace with Israel. The only way that their malignant influence will be eliminated is for a more visionary Palestinian leadership to forcefully disarm them. Unfortunately the early signs are such that I cannot see it coming from Mahmud Abbas.

Yet I think the majority of palestinians and the palestinian leadership at most use those organisations as a tool in the struggle against Israel, indeed good cops/bad cops, but finally those will accept a reasonable compromise with Israel, now they're trying to get the most out of the deal, and that's why they need the bad cops, but once they're becoming a nuisance rather than a tool they'll be eliminated, in the same fashion Arab regimes deal with extremist muslims all over the region once they're no longer usefull. The same once Syria gets back the Golan heights the Hesbollah won't be any of use to them any more.

I wish I could share your optimism. I think that even if the "good cops" wanted to eliminate Hamas and Jihad once they become a nuisance, they will find it hard to do so (just look at your survey and see how many are still opposed to the proposed solution). Unfortunately I think that the situation is even worse than that because I don't believe that the current leadership even wants to ever eliminate Hammas and Jihad

It's clear the majority of palestinians and the leadership want a deal with Israel, and not Israel's destruction, as these polls indicate as well.

Again, I wish I could share your optimism but nothing that I heard them say or do gives me the confidence that you are right. The only thing that the survey tells me at this stage is that a slightly higher number of Palestinians are getting a bit tired of the current way of fighting and that they are willing to accept an alternative tactic that will enable them to achieve their aim of destroying Israel in the longer term.

[Leon]

Recent polls and recent surveys also show that 80% of Palestinians support attacks against innocent Israeli civilians both in and outside of the so called green line. To get an even fairer depiction, one can look to the mass rallies of tens of thousands of palestinians celebrating each time an innocent Jew is murdered.

Or perhaps the PLO charter - which remains unchanged despite the PLO pledge to change it under OSLO (a legally binding pledge in return for been allowed to come back from Tunis and gain autonomy rule) and promises their to Clinton to change it - is reflective of the attitude of the majority of Palestinians today:

http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/mideast/plocov.htm

[Leon]

What is more credible in determining the general attitude of the majority of Palestinians and the long term intentions of PLO thugs...a bodgey survey funded by the PLO propaganda machine or this from the PLO charter:

Article 19:
The partition of Palestine in 1947 and the establishment of the state of Israel are entirely illegal, regardless of the passage of time, because they were contrary to the will of the Palestinian people and to their natural right in their homeland, and inconsistent with the principles embodied in the Charter of the United Nations; particularly the right to self-determination.


Article 20:
The Balfour Declaration, the Mandate for Palestine, and everything that has been based upon them, are deemed null and void. Claims of historical or religious ties of Jews with Palestine are incompatible with the facts of history and the true conception of what constitutes statehood. Judaism, being a religion, is not an independent nationality. Nor do Jews constitute a single nation with an identity of its own; they are citizens of the states to which they belong.

Article 21:
The Arab Palestinian people, expressing themselves by the armed Palestinian revolution, reject all solutions which are substitutes for the total liberation of Palestine and reject all proposals aiming at the liquidation of the Palestinian problem, or its internationalization.

[Reffo]

Again, I wish I could share your optimism but nothing that I heard them say or do gives me the confidence that you are right. The only thing that the survey tells me at this stage is that a slightly higher number of Palestinians are getting a bit tired of the current way of fighting and that they are willing to accept an alternative tactic that will enable them to achieve their aim of destroying Israel in the longer term.

Further to my previous post, you may very well ask: How will you know when the Palestinian leadership is serious about peace ? My answer to that question is:

• When they get out of blame mode and give credit to Israel's concessions
• When they stop the incitement and create a more positive atmosphere
• When they allow their own dissenters to speak up without having to fear violence or death. Even if they are as extreme as Chomsky is against Israel (their mirror image being extreme against the current Palestinian politics)
• When they disarm their extremists and stop violent attacks (not just half heartedly)
• When they acknowledge their own historical wrong doings and not just harp on what Israel has done wrong

The above list is not exhaustive nor is it in order of priority. You may say that the above requires them to surrender. But this is not so. They can still vigorously defend their rights and demand the best possible solution but at the same time they have to be realistic and demonstrate that they are willing to negotiate in good faith.

[Toga]

This is good news, Israeli's and Palestinians are ready for peace and compromise. Both want to green line (with some land exchange) as the permanent border, both want to search for a balanced settlement for the refugee-question, both want to recognise eachother. the only problem remains Jerusalem, but this can be solved as well. the other problem that remains are the politicians and especially the extremists on both sides (many of which are represented on this site) who will do everything in their power to avoid and sabotage peace. So newsguy, ibrodsky, rhodescholar, galgamesh etc. you can no longer claim that your opinion is representative for the Israeli people as a whole. On the contrary to you the Israeli majority wants peace and wants to end the occupation of the territories occupied in 1967.
You can also no longer claim the majority of the Palestinians want the extermination and genocide against the Israeli people as their final goal.

Who breeds your kind?

1. Israel has been extendeding its hands to the enemies since the creation of the Jewish state.

2. The adversaries look at the agreements with Israel as a tool to undermine and ultimately defeat the Jewish state.

3. The green line, pink line, black line or the purple line call it what you want as it does not matter. The reason they want Israel at the armistice line of 1967 is because they know that Israel within that border is vulnerable. Period!

[tandem]

This is good news, Israeli's and Palestinians are ready for peace and compromise. Both want to green line (with some land exchange) as the permanent border, both want to search for a balanced settlement for the refugee-question, both want to recognise eachother.

ok, so the israelis compromise on 1967 borders which are not defined and paying millions or perhaps even billions to a couple of arab "refugees" who decided to call themselves "palestinians" that were never its doing or responsibility. what kind of compromise the palestinian arabs are prepared to make? stop homicide bombings? stop firing crude rockets at innocent people? stop the incitement against jews in state controlled media? should these really be considered a compromise? the french appeasement of terrorists and despots never cease to amaze me. and besides, don't bother posting all kinds of bulls--t about what israelis REALLY want because 500 or so israelis say nothing about what the remaining 5.3 million jews in israel want. i watch israeli media and read israeli newspapers more than you will ever be able to watch or understand and i can tell you that the vast majority of israelis see things different than what that poll says. furthermore, the poll itself does not say that of the 500 israelis interviewed all of them were jews. this means that some were perhaps arabs who would do what's best for their "palestinian" brothers and not israel.