Allies because of what they do not who they are.

[Mediocrates]

Since its creation, Israel's biggest ally has for the most part been the US. If you can call anyone a true ally. In any case the situation looks murkier. Dr. Rice proclaiming Israel 'must make very hard choices', calls for a contiguous Palestine, promises to add almost $400 million dollars to their coffers and repeated calls for Israel to do 100% of the sacrifice and the heavy lifting. Moreover the US is stepping up pressure on Israel to be the final arbiter of who they will be allowed to trade with. For example the latest problem with upgrading equipment they had already sold to China. And if one were to examine the military aid Israel receives from the US they would see that most of it is in the form of dollars that must be spent in the US on American contractors such as Boeing, Lockeed, Lytton Industries and other big ticket big lobby firms that do massive business with the DoD.

(as an aside, the next time some blockhead screams to you about American military aid to Israel tell them point blank that most of it, nearly all, is spent in the US and helps maintain the local economies of quite a few defense oriented towns - in other words it imports jobs to America). In fact Israel is a net exporter of military technology and sources only particular segments out to countries that have the technology on inventory or the infrastructure to build it.)

At any rate one can see that in the next few years, American Israeli relations may be victims of their own success. With the transformation (or whatever you call it) of Iraq, glacial pace liberalizations in Jordan and a US military liason presence in Egypt, the second largest recipient of US aid. The rehabilitation of Libya, the eventual collapse of NATO. With a near certain real dollar rollback in every EU sponsored military program resulting in the effective de-militarization in toto of the EU including nukes. With Russia remaining a modern state in name only bolstered by its nuclear arsenal and given a seat at the table of world powers only because of that and oil. With Japan debating seriously on revamping its own constiution to allow for a real army. For these reasons and others, one can see America simply turning its back on Israel and treating her just like any other country - a trade partner receiving no aid and making its regional political decisions based solely on immediate self interest, perhaps it's time for Israel to consider a new stratetic partner. One based on shared interests and shared urgency and shared necessity and not just who they are. It seems a high price to pay for Israel to be dependent on less than 3 billion dollars in mixed military, commercial and financial aid that comes with so many strings attached. Just for the benefit of relying on the US's vote in the SC. Well what of it? Why not work with another country that had a vote in the SC (China). Why not work with a country that will soon have one (India)?

Here is short op-ed piece that describes some of the recent goings on between China and Israel.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...=1107400718599

From news article:

Ally in the making



Herb Keinon, THE JERUSALEM POST Feb. 3, 2005




On the face of it, especially when looking at the world through jaundiced Jewish eyes, the recent warming of Israeli-Chinese ties doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

Close your eyes and picture a boxing match, where an imaginary master of ceremonies introduces the fighters to an audience made up of the countries of the world.

"In this corner," bellows the cigar-chomping emcee with his thick Philadelphia accent, "hailing all the way from northeast Asia, weighing in with 1.3 billion people and a breakneck economy growing by 9.5 percent a year, please welcome the People's Republic of China."

The crowd goes nuts, knowing full well that it's worth getting on the good side of this giant - warts and all - from whom the crowd presently buys, and in the future hopes to sell, so much.

"And in that corner," the announcer continues, "say shalom to Israel, weighing in at a little over 6 million people, a patchy economy and more than its fair share of domestic problems."

A smattering of polite applause, and plenty of hearty boos from an audience that historically magnifies this dwarf's over-exposed blemishes. The bell rings, and the two come out. But they don't fight. Rather, the giant extends his glove to the dwarf, who glances over his shoulder at his Uncle Sam - who gives him a wink and a nod - and then takes the outstretched hand with great, even over-eager, enthusiasm.

Many in the crowd are aghast, others full of wonder, especially since just a few years ago the dwarf, at Uncle Sam's insistence, spat tobacco juice in the giant's eye; and even just a few weeks ago, again at the meddling uncle's insistence, stepped on the giant's small toe. Now open your own eyes and take a good look at Sino-Israeli ties.

[The Indian]

An intersting discussion topic, Mediocrates.

In the near future (within 50 years), economic growth will come from Asia, US and Brazil. The EU is questionable at best at this time given its low birth rates and GDP increases, but this could improve quickly. The US will remain on top economically, thus wielding influence on the other countries.

Culturally, Israel is closer to the US than other countries, and although China and India wish Israel well (and see it successful), they may not necessarily vote for it at the UNSC because of politics and the quest for mideast oil. China and India are on a massive industrialization process and require vast quantities of fuel. They are cooperating and competing with each other for oil resources since domestic capacity is limited. The US and UK will vote for Israel on the UNSC. In a hypothetical situation if Brazil, Russia, China, India, Japan, Germany, France, US, UK and South Africa vote in the UNSC on Isreal related resolutions. In all likelyhood, India and China will abstain, where Russia, France and Germany may vote against it and the US, UK, Japan will vote for it. South Africa could go in any direction, but the US could influence any of these countries to vote for Israel. For this reason, Israel will allow the US to have veto power over its foriegn policy.

Right now, the US sees China as an adversary and limits Sino-Isreali military relations. The US does not see India in the same light and allows several billion dollars of Indo-Isreali military cooperation to go ahead, at this time. If India ticked off the US for example by de-fanging Pakistan, then the US would be anti-India (again). I think for Israel, if it could develop a very high GDP, it would become less dependant on the US and carry its foriegn relations on its own. Everyone in India and the rest of Asia is watching how Sino-Israeli relations are developing because of potential implications on them. On the bright side, China is a known proliferator and stopping/slowing the sale of military hardware will result in less lethal weapons in the hands of radical Islamist countries.