Home | polls closed an hour ago and so far the exit polls are:
channel 10
kadima (leader: ehud olmert) - 31
labour (leader: amir peretz) - 20
israel beitenu "israel our home" (leader: avigdor liberman) - 12
likud (leader: bibi netanyahu) - 11
and imo the biggest surprise of the night, the gimlayim, the seniors party, 8 seats!
ugh this is grim.
what's the scoop with Gimlaen anyway? I know they're the retired pensioners, but where do they fall politically?
They will join any coalition as long as their demands will be fullfield. Obviously their social agenda is very close to labor. However, on other issues the party is mixed (for example their Nr. 1 Raffi Eitan is thought to be center-right). I predict that everything except their social agenda won't matter at first. It will be interesting were they will stand on other issues after their demands regarding social welfare/pension for the elderly have been met. But until then I doubt that they will dwelve into other issues.Originally Posted by redcake
It's a huge question mark. Tradionaly they are affiliated to Labor.
They demand more goverment funds into their pansions - it 120 proof labor.
plus the fact that bibi as finance minister cut senior and child pensions to almost nothing also paved the way for the rise of their party.
This results are more or less good news, Bibi is history... the rightwing Eretz-Israel fanatics have been defeated. Let's hope for a Kadima-Labour coalition, willing to give up most of the occupied territories and more care for social issues.
according to channel 1 ballot poll:
Kadima - 29 seats
Labor - 22 seats
Libermann - 14 seats
Likud - 11 seats
Gimlayim - 8 seats
elections participation was 63.2%. Very low, in Israeli terms (but standard, in western word terms)
The elections can certainly be viewed as a vote of confidence in Olmert's "hitkansut" (inward gathering) plan, which is in fact a unilateral withdrawal from ~90% west bank. If indeed Olmert goes ahead with this plan, no one can claim that this is a new plan that was not brought before the voter, as was the case with Sharon's disengagement.
The most likely coalition at the present is Kadima, Labor, Meretz, Shas and Gimlayim. A strong coalition with over 70 seats. This coalition can move forward with the hitkansut plan as well as social economic reforms.
all in all, a good result.
I hope this coalition will also dismantle the larger settlements and restart negociations with the Palestinians for a two-state solution. A good result, and especially the leftwing Peretz performed well in the elections, better than predicted. The Likud radicals on this site (such as newsguy, ibrodsky, etc.) can no longer claim they represent the Israeli population.The most likely coalition at the present is Kadima, Labor, Meretz, Shas and Gimlayim. A strong coalition with over 70 seats. This coalition can move forward with the hitkansut plan as well as social economic reforms.
According to this exit polls the Likud is still 600% larger than Hadash which is representing your wicked worldview of siding with oppression, dictatorship and terrorism.
Don't you think that first action should be for Hamas to recognize the state of Israel, then start negotiations with it ??
How can they represent the Israeli population, they are American....
Small update. The real results are starting to drop in and so far they look slightly different than the exit polls.
Real results after 1/4 of the votes
Kadima (Mishmash) ------------------------ 28
Labor (Social Democrats) ------------------ 20
Israel Beitenu (Center-Right) ---------------12
Likud (Center-Right) -----------------------12
NU/NRP (Nationalists / National Religious) ---- 9
UTJ (Haredi Ashkenazi) --------------------- 7
Shas (Religious Sephardi) ------------------ 12
Gimlaim (Pensioners) ------------------------ 8
Meretz (Socialist) -------------------------- 5
Hadash (Arab) ----------------------------- 3
Raam (Arab) ------------------------------- 3
Balad (Arab) ------------------------------- 2
should read
Israel Beitenu (Fascists) 12
that's what you think... israel beitenu is actually more right, at least on the arab issue, than the likud. from the way things look now it will be more or less status quo with the palestinian arabs, i don't think the new israeli government will seriously move forward unless the terrorist hamas movement recognizes israel first. however, on the economic front, i think we will see a government that focus more on welfare and social programs than the previous governments.
Last edited by tandem; 03-28-2006 at 04:18 PM.
Something tells me those numbers are going to shift back forth a few more times, but it's looking like the Knesset is pretty much split with the swing vote going to those Pensioner folks. Is my math off?
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