Not all is Jake in the new Persian Empire.

[varian]

Sorry I'm back (as are others) - I just couldn't resist

Mystery explosions point to Iran's secret arms shipments to terrorists
By Con Coughlin in Vienna
Last Updated: 7:01am BST 25/07/2008

For an organisation that prides itself on being a well-run administrative machine, the leadership of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards is having a rather testing time. It’s not just last Saturday’s mysterious explosion in a suburb of Tehran that killed 15 people that is causing the leadership sleepless nights, although the nationwide news black-out imposed immediately afterwards does suggest the Revolutionary Guards, the storm troops of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, are rattled.

Details are only now starting to reach the outside world, and it looks increasingly like sabotage was responsible for devastating a military convoy as it travelled through Khavarshahar. The company responsible for moving the equipment, LTK, is owned by the Revolutionary Guards and is suspected of being involved in shipping arms to Lebanon’s Hizbollah Shia Muslim militia, which is trained and funded by Tehran.

The Revolutionary Guards’ arms shipments to Lebanon and its allies in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia are usually shrouded in such secrecy that only a few senior members of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government are briefed in advance. As the international crisis over Iran’s nuclear programme deepens, the Revolutionary Guards have intensified their efforts to supply regional allies with military hardware so that, in the event of Tehran becoming involved in an armed confrontation with the West, Iran can respond by opening a number of fronts in the Middle East and beyond.

The need to keep the arms build-up secret would explain the Revolutionary Guards’ decision to ban the Iranian media from reporting the explosion, even though it was heard throughout the capital. But what really concerns Iran’s leadership is that the incident is the latest in a long line of unexplained explosions. ...

... Iran is intensifying efforts to strengthen the effectiveness of Hizbollah in southern Lebanon in preparation for a possible attack on Israel. Revolutionary Guards are keen to strengthen its leadership following the assassination of Imad Mugniyeh, Hizbollah’s head of security, in the Syrian capital by Israeli agents last February.

Mugniyeh, the terrorist behind suicide truck bomb attacks on American and French troops in the 1980s, played a key role in building up Hizbollah’s military strength, which proved to be highly effective during its 2006 attack against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. Tehran wants to appoint one of its commanders as a replacement, but has received unexpected resistance from Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general. Nasrallah insists Mugniyeh’s replacement must come from within Hizbollah’s ranks. Suddenly nothing seems to be going the Revolutionary Guards’ way.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/m.../25/do2503.xml

Is this the work of former pro-Shah Iranians or "Do you know where your friendly, neighborhood, IDF commando" is at this moment??? Win/win either way!!!

[Steven]

Did you see last week, where they showed pictures of plastic model fighter planes on their website and tried to pass them off as real. The week before they doctored the photo of the missile tests as at least one did not go off.

[varian]

There are varying estimates (depending on the source) of how many former pro-Shah dissidents exist inside of Iran at this time. It is becoming abundantly clear that like other ME despotic regimes that "order" is kept by fear, intimidation, and worse. The fragile part of the equation is that this dissident group may turn on any "helper" if Iran was to be invaded and occupied by the outside forces of such a "helper." So the best situation may be to wait upon Iran and draw its forces out of their borders and destroy the supply and logistics behind them. This would keep the "loyalist" groups and their families from ending up as collateral damage. This is just my 2 cents on the issue. Let Iran fight a divided internal and external conflict. After all, that's what their agents in the US plan for here if and when hostilities start.

[Steven]

Originally Posted by varian

There are varying estimates (depending on the source) of how many former pro-Shah dissidents exist inside of Iran at this time. It is becoming abundantly clear that like other ME despotic regimes that "order" is kept by fear, intimidation, and worse. The fragile part of the equation is that this dissident group may turn on any "helper" if Iran was to be invaded and occupied by the outside forces of such a "helper." So the best situation may be to wait upon Iran and draw its forces out of their borders and destroy the supply and logistics behind them. This would keep the "loyalist" groups and their families from ending up as collateral damage. This is just my 2 cents on the issue. Let Iran fight a divided internal and external conflict. After all, that's what their agents in the US plan for here if and when hostilities start.

I saw about a year ago an ex CIA guy said there were at least 2000 Hezbollah agents here already. I would not invade them either, but those nuclear sites have to go.

[varian]

I look for the trouble to start with the draw down of troops from Iraq. When the troop strength falls to a certain threshhold, I believe that the current Iranian regime will feel froggy enough to attempt an all out run through S. Iraq right into Syria and Lenanon to link up with friendly forces in both places. Although risky, the risk will drop dramatically as US/NATO forces vacate Iraq in large numbers. If I were a commander in Iraq at this time, I would ask for a contingency plan to be worked out with Israel for a quick withdrawl of all US/NATO (Israel friendly only) forces to the Negev in case of an emergency. Perhaps the sending of large caches of weapons to the areas of Syria and Lebanon has more to do with Iran's possible invasion plans of Israel than in helping the local tangos restock. At any rate it appears as if they are planning for a possible protracted battle augmented by the local tangos (willing cannon fodder is always needed).

Whether they succeed in this linkage remains to be seen. All the Islamic forces in the ME and surrounding areas seem to have the "hooks in the jaw" syndrome as described in Ezekiel. Russia's linkage with Iran seems to make them a good candidate for the same. Rather than a nuclear strike first, that gambit may be held in reserve if Iran wants to preserve some Muslim "holy sites." (Although, according to some archaeology reports, it would not take too much for the al Aqsa mosque to implode) Then again Iran may just take their frequently broadcast mad dog, scorched earth approach too.